2015-2016 UEFA Champions League Simulation

 in Soccer / Sports Predictions by (updated 2005 days ago)

Original Posting: 6/24/2015

We programmed all the rules of the Champions League and simulated every pair of games 5,000 times. The UEFA Champions League uses the Away goals rule, so our simulations are based upon these standards. In our simulations, we also offer the probabilities for method of victory within each two leg grouping. Also note that if a team wins by away goals in extra time then we set their method of victory as “Away Goals”.

To set the standard for our simulations, we use the ratings from our European Football Rankings page. You can read more about the methodology of these rankings here, but essentially, we take into account the scores of all prior games to give teams a rating. It is important to note that these ratings are adjusted based on whether the game is played at home or away. For all of our individual game predictions, go here.

UEFA Champions League – Finals

The Champions League Final is set for May 28th.

2016 Champions League Final Projection

UEFA Champions League – Semifinals

The Champions League Semifinals pits Manchester City against Real Madrid and Atl. Madrid against Bayern Munich. Both Bayern Munich and Real Madrid came out to be decent favorites in our simulation before leg 1. However, after a strong 1-0 victory from Atl. Madrid and a good 0-0 showing from Manchester City the odds have evened out in both contests.

2015-2016 Champions League Semifinals Prediction

UEFA Champions League Semifinals Results
# Result
1
 Real Madrid Spain advance over Manchester City England 1-0 on score differential.
2
 Atl. Madrid Spain advance over Bayern Munich Germany 1-0 on away goals (2-2 aggregate).

UEFA Champions League – Quarterfinals

The first leg of the Quarterfinals of the 2015-2016 UEFA Champions League tournament is on April 5th and April 6th. The second leg will run the next week on April 12th and April 13th. Bayern Munich and Real Madrid are both heavy favorites to advance to the Semifinals while the Barcelona/Athletico Madrid and PSG/Manchester City matches should be pretty good ones.

2015-2016 Champions League Quarterfinals Simulation

UEFA Champions League Quarterfinal Results
# Result
1
 Atl. Madrid Spain advance over Barcelona Spain 3-2 on score differential.
2
 Bayern Munich Germany advance over Benfica Portugal 3-2 on score differential.
3
 Manchester City England advance over Paris SG France 3-2 on score differential.
4
 Real Madrid Spain advance over Wolfsburg Germany 3-2 on score differential.

UEFA Champions League – Round of 16

The knockout phase of the 2015-2016 UEFA Champions League tournament begins on February 16th and runs through March 16th. In this phase, each team plays a two leg series with the teams alternating as the home team. Below, we have listed our probabilities to advance to the Round of 8.

Round of 16 Champions League To Qualify 2016

UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Results
# Result
1
 Benfica Portugal advance over Zenit Petersburg Russia 3-1 on score differential.
2
 Paris SG France advance over Chelsea England 4-2 on score differential.
3
 Real Madrid Spain advance over AS Roma Italy 4-2 on score differential.
4
 Wolfsburg Germany advance over Gent Belgium 4-2 on score differential.
5
 Barcelona Spain advance over Arsenal England 5-1 on score differential.
6
 Bayern Munich Germany advance over Juventus Italy 6-4 on score differential.
7
 Manchester City England advance over Dyn. Kiev Ukraine 3-1 on score differential.
8
 Atl. Madrid Spain advance over PSV Netherlands 1-0 on score differential.

UEFA Champions League – Group Stage

The group stage consists of thirty-two teams that are broken down into eight groups of four teams. Twenty-two teams enter the tournament at this stage, while the ten winners of the playoff round join here. The draw was on August 27th, and the games will be played between September 15th and December 9th.

Projection Before Group Play Started vs. Actual

The below projections were based on our simulation before Group Play started compared to the actual results of the tournament.

Group A Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Real Madrid Spain
4.4
0.7
0.9
14.1
82.2%
15.2%
Paris SG France
2.9
1.8
1.3
10.1
15.6%
61.9%
Shakhtar Ukraine
1.9
3
1.2
6.7
2%
19.7%
Malmo FF Sweden
0.7
4.4
1
3
0.2%
3.2%
Group A Actual
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Real Madrid Spain
5
0
1
16
Advance to Knockout Stage
Paris SG France
4
1
1
13
Advance to Knockout Stage
Shakhtar Ukraine
1
5
0
3
Transfer to Europa League
Malmo FF Sweden
1
5
0
3
Group B Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Manchester United England
3.5
1.2
1.3
11.9
62.8%
27.2%
Wolfsburg Germany
2.7
1.9
1.4
9.5
25.2%
41.2%
CSKA Moscow Russia
2
2.6
1.3
7.5
10.1%
23.7%
PSV Netherlands
1.1
3.7
1.2
4.6
1.8%
7.8%
Group B Actual
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Wolfsburg Germany
4
2
0
12
Advance to Knockout Stage
PSV Netherlands
3
2
1
10
Advance to Knockout Stage
Manchester United England
2
2
2
8
Transfer to Europa League
CSKA Moscow Russia
1
4
1
4
Group C Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Atl. Madrid Spain
4.6
0.5
0.9
14.7
89.2%
10.5%
Benfica Portugal
2.7
2
1.3
9.5
10.4%
67.4%
Galatasaray Turkey
1.3
3.5
1.2
5.1
0.3%
12.1%
FC Astana Kazakhstan
1.1
3.7
1.2
4.4
0.1%
9.9%
Group C Actual
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Atl. Madrid Spain
4
1
1
13
Advance to Knockout Stage
Benfica Portugal
3
2
1
10
Advance to Knockout Stage
Galatasaray Turkey
1
3
2
5
Transfer to Europa League
FC Astana Kazakhstan
0
2
4
4
Group D Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Manchester City England
2.8
1.7
1.5
10
44.3%
28.1%
Juventus Italy
2.5
2
1.6
9
27%
32.4%
Sevilla Spain
2.2
2.3
1.5
8.2
22.1%
26.7%
B. Monchengladbach Germany
1.4
3.1
1.4
5.7
6.6%
12.9%
Group D Actual
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Manchester City England
4
2
0
12
Advance to Knockout Stage
Juventus Italy
3
1
2
11
Advance to Knockout Stage
Sevilla Spain
2
4
0
6
Transfer to Europa League
B. Monchengladbach Germany
1
3
2
5
Group E Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Barcelona Spain
4.7
0.5
0.8
14.9
90.8%
8.9%
Bayer Leverkusen Germany
2.6
2.2
1.2
9.1
6.7%
57.6%
AS Roma Italy
2
2.8
1.2
7.2
2.5%
30.6%
BATE Belarus
0.6
4.5
0.9
2.7
0.1%
2.8%
Group E Actual
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Barcelona Spain
4
0
2
14
Advance to Knockout Stage
AS Roma Italy
1
2
3
6
Advance to Knockout Stage
Bayer Leverkusen Germany
1
2
3
6
Transfer to Europa League
BATE Belarus
1
3
2
5
Group F Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Bayern Munich Germany
4.2
0.8
1
13.7
74.4%
23%
Arsenal England
3.1
1.7
1.3
10.4
23.1%
57.9%
Olympiakos Piraeus Greece
1.6
3.1
1.2
6.1
2.1%
16.2%
D. Zagreb Croatia
0.8
4.2
1
3.5
0.3%
2.9%
Group F Actual
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Bayern Munich Germany
5
1
0
15
Advance to Knockout Stage
Arsenal England
3
3
0
9
Advance to Knockout Stage
Olympiakos Piraeus Greece
3
3
0
9
Transfer to Europa League
D. Zagreb Croatia
1
5
0
3
Group G Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Chelsea England
3.7
1
1.3
12.3
64.2%
26.5%
FC Porto Portugal
2.9
1.7
1.4
10.1
26.4%
44%
Dyn. Kiev Ukraine
2.2
2.5
1.3
7.9
9%
27.2%
Maccabi Tel Aviv Israel
0.7
4.2
1.1
3.1
0.3%
2.3%
Group G Actual
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Chelsea England
4
1
1
13
Advance to Knockout Stage
Dyn. Kiev Ukraine
3
1
2
11
Advance to Knockout Stage
FC Porto Portugal
3
2
1
10
Transfer to Europa League
Maccabi Tel Aviv Israel
0
6
0
0
Group H Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Win Group 2nd in Group
Valencia Spain
3.4
1.2
1.4
11.5
61.6%
25%
Zenit Petersburg Russia
2.3
2.1
1.6
8.5
19.2%
35.4%
Lyon France
2.1
2.3
1.6
7.9
16.6%
29%
Gent Belgium
1.2
3.3
1.5
5.1
2.6%
10.7%
Group H Actual
Team Wins Losses Ties Points Result
Zenit Petersburg Russia
5
1
0
15
Advance to Knockout Stage
Gent Belgium
3
2
1
10
Advance to Knockout Stage
Valencia Spain
2
4
0
6
Transfer to Europa League
Lyon France
1
4
1
4

UEFA Champions League – Qualification – Playoff Round

The playoff qualifying round consists of twenty teams. Fifteen of the teams are winners of their matches in the third round and five teams enter in this round. The draw was on August 7th, with the first legs having being played on August 18th and 19th. The second legs will be played on August 25th and 26th. Below is the updated projections based on the first stage results.

UEFA Champions League 2015/2016 - Playoff Round Leg 2 Simulation

UEFA Champions League Playoff Round Results
# Result
1
 FC Astana Kazakhstan advance over APOEL Cyprus 2-1 on score differential.
2
 BATE Belarus advance over Partizan Serbia 1-0 on away goals (2-2 aggregate).
3
 Bayer Leverkusen Germany advance over Lazio Italy 3-1 on score differential.
4
 Manchester United England advance over Club Brugge Belgium 7-1 on score differential.
5
 CSKA Moscow Russia advance over Sporting Portugal 4-3 on score differential.
6
 Maccabi Tel Aviv Israel advance over Basel Switzerland 2-1 on away goals (3-3 aggregate).
7
 Malmo FF Sweden advance over Celtic Scotland 4-3 on score differential.
8
 Shakhtar Ukraine advance over Rapid Vienna Austria 4-1 on score differential.
9
 D. Zagreb Croatia advance over Skenderbeu Albania 6-2 on score differential.
10
 Valencia Spain advance over Monaco France 4-3 on score differential.

UEFA Champions League – Qualification – Third Round

The third qualifying round will consist of thirty teams. Three of these teams are league champions, seventeen are the winners from the second round of qualifying and ten teams enter through the League Route. The first legs are being played on July 28th and 29th and the second legs being played on August 4th and 5th.

Below is our simulation (5,000 trials) on the third round matches.

UEFA Champions League Qualifying 2015-2016, Round 3

UEFA Champions League Third Round Results
# Result
1
 CSKA Moscow Russia advance over Sparta Prague Czech Republic 5-4 on score differential.
2
 APOEL Cyprus advance over Midtjylland Denmark 1-0 on away goals (2-2 aggregate).
3
 Skenderbeu Albania advance over Milsami Moldova 4-0 on score differential.
4
 Maccabi Tel Aviv Israel advance over Plzen Czech Republic 3-2 on score differential.
5
 Shakhtar Ukraine advance over Fenerbahce Turkey 3-0 on score differential.
6
 Club Brugge Belgium advance over Panathinaikos Greece 4-2 on score differential.
7
 Monaco France advance over Young Boys Switzerland 7-1 on score differential.
8
 BATE Belarus advance over Videoton Hungary 2-1 on score differential.
9
 D. Zagreb Croatia advance over Molde Norway 3-1 on away goals (4-4 aggregate).
10
 FC Astana Kazakhstan advance over HJK Finland 4-3 on score differential.
11
 Malmo FF Sweden advance over Salzburg Austria 3-2 on score differential.
12
 Partizan Serbia advance over Steaua Bucuresti Romania 5-3 on score differential.
13
 Celtic Scotland advance over Qarabag Azerbaijan 1-0 on score differential.
14
 Basel Switzerland advance over Lech Poznan Poland 4-1 on score differential.
15
 Rapid Vienna Austria advance over Ajax Netherlands 5-1 on score differential.

UEFA Champions League Simulation – Qualification – Second Round

We have highlighted the teams that have advanced from the first round in yellow in the table below.

With the first leg of the second round having been played, we have done a new simulation taking into account the first leg results.

UEFA Champions League 2015-2016 - Round 2

With the second round now over, these are the final results of the two legs.

UEFA Champions League Second Round Results
# Result
1
 HJK Finland advance over Ventspils Latvia 4-1 on score differential.
2
 APOEL Cyprus advance over Vardar FYR Macedonia 1-0 on away goals (1-1 aggregate).
3
 Videoton Hungary advance over TNS Wales 2-1 on score differential.
4
 Midtjylland Denmark advance over Lincoln Red Imps Gibraltar 3-0 on score differential.
5
 Milsami Moldova advance over Ludogorets Bulgaria 3-1 on score differential.
6
 Maccabi Tel Aviv Israel advance over Hibernians Malta 6-3 on score differential.
7
 Molde Norway advance over Pyunik Yerevan Armenia 5-1 on score differential.
8
 Skenderbeu Albania advance over Crusaders Northern Ireland 6-4 on score differential.
9
 FC Astana Kazakhstan advance over Maribor Slovenia 3-2 on score differential.
10
 Steaua Bucuresti Romania advance over Trencin Slovakia 4-3 on score differential.
11
 Partizan Serbia advance over Dila Gori Georgia 3-0 on score differential.
12
 Lech Poznan Poland advance over FK Sarajevo Bosnia & Herzegovina 3-0 on score differential.
13
 Qarabag Azerbaijan advance over Rudar Montenegro 1-0 on score differential.
14
 Malmo FF Sweden advance over Zalgiris Lithuania 1-0 on score differential.
15
 BATE Belarus advance over Dundalk Ireland 2-1 on score differential.
16
 Celtic Scotland advance over Stjarnan Iceland 6-1 on score differential.
17
 D. Zagreb Croatia advance over Fola Luxembourg 4-1 on score differential.

UEFA Champions League Simulation – Qualification – First Round

2015-2016 UEFA Champions League - Qualification - First Round Simulation

UEFA Champions League First Round Results
# Result
1
 TNS Wales advance over B36 Torshavn Faroe Islands 6-2 on score differential.
2
 Crusaders Northern Ireland advance over Levadia Estonia 1-0 on away goals (1-1 aggregate).
3
 Lincoln Red Imps Gibraltar advance over FC Santa Coloma Andorra 2-1 on score differential.
4
 Pyunik Yerevan Armenia advance over Folgore San Marino 4-2 on score differential.