We are back for another year of NBA projections and to start the season it should be no surprise that the Cavs and Warriors have the highest odds to win it all! We use data from the our NBA Team Ratings, results from played games, and the future NBA schedule for our simulations. We run this simulation 1,000 times and report the results. One will find expected win total for all the NBA teams, the probability of winning their division, the probability of winning their conference and the probability of winning the NBA Championship. These odds will change and be updated as the season progresses.
The NBA season prediction takes into account all the basic tiebreaker and playoff rules. Starting in this 2015-16 season, the division champions no longer will occupy the top three spots of their conference in the playoffs. The seeding from one to eight will now be done based on overall record within the conference.
We also provide our NBA Game Predictions. These are available for a more detailed break down of the individual games coming up.
Updates
January 27th, 2017: Cleveland has struggled as of late and this has been reflected in the simulation as their chance of winning the NBA title is now down to 14.3%. Golden State on the other hand has seen their odds of winning the championship jump from 31% to 49.6% since the last simulation done on December 19th.
February 17th, 2017: Heading into the NBA All-Star break, there are a few changes that we’ve seen since our last simulation. Winning eleven out of their last twelve, the Wizards now have an 84.5% chance to win the Southeast division, up from 35.3% in our last simulation. The Warriors continue to see their odds of winning the World Championship go up as they are now have a probability of 56.8% to win it all.
April 1st, 2017: There is movement all over the board. Perhaps the most impressive is with the Washington Wizards jumping from 44.7 projected wins to 49.1 projected wins since the last simulation six weeks ago.
April 14th, 2017: With the regular season over, we have set the playoff odds.
April 30th, 2017: The first round of the playoffs are over. We ran the simulation again to get the updated odds to win for each team remaining.
May 13th, 2017: Still no surprises in the simulation. Golden State is now projected to have a probability of 58% to win the title.
May 26th, 2017: Final simulation with Golden State and Cleveland in the NBA Finals.
Original Posting: 11/4/2016
Last simulation was done on 5/26/2017.
NBA Season Prediction – Expected Win Total and Odds to Win Division
| Atlantic | Wins | Losses | Proj Wins | Proj Losses | Prob to Win Division | ML on Winning Div |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | ||||||
| Toronto | ||||||
| New York | ||||||
| Philadelphia | ||||||
| Brooklyn | ||||||
| Central | Wins | Losses | Proj Wins | Proj Losses | Prob to Win Division | ML on Winning Div |
| Cleveland | ||||||
| Indiana | ||||||
| Milwaukee | ||||||
| Chicago | ||||||
| Detroit | ||||||
| Southeast | Wins | Losses | Proj Wins | Proj Losses | Prob to Win Division | ML on Winning Div |
| Washington | ||||||
| Atlanta | ||||||
| Miami | ||||||
| Charlotte | ||||||
| Orlando | ||||||
| Northwest | Wins | Losses | Proj Wins | Proj Losses | Prob to Win Division | ML on Winning Div |
| Utah | ||||||
| Oklahoma City | ||||||
| Portland | ||||||
| Denver | ||||||
| Minnesota | ||||||
| Pacific | Wins | Losses | Proj Wins | Proj Losses | Prob to Win Division | ML on Winning Div |
| Golden State | ||||||
| LA Clippers | ||||||
| Sacramento | ||||||
| LA Lakers | ||||||
| Phoenix | ||||||
| Southwest | Wins | Losses | Proj Wins | Proj Losses | Prob to Win Division | ML on Winning Div |
| San Antonio | ||||||
| Houston | ||||||
| Memphis | ||||||
| New Orleans | ||||||
| Dallas |
NBA Season Prediction – To Make Playoffs, Win Conference, and Win Championship
| Atlantic | Playoff % | ML Playoffs | Conf Win % | ML Conf Win | NBA Champ Win % | ML on NBA Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central | Playoff % | ML Playoffs | Conf Win % | ML Conf Win | NBA Champ Win % | ML on NBA Champ |
| Southeast | Playoff % | ML Playoffs | Conf Win % | ML Conf Win | NBA Champ Win % | ML on NBA Champ |
| Northwest | Playoff % | ML Playoffs | Conf Win % | ML Conf Win | NBA Champ Win % | ML on NBA Champ |
| Pacific | Playoff % | ML Playoffs | Conf Win % | ML Conf Win | NBA Champ Win % | ML on NBA Champ |
| Southwest | Playoff % | ML Playoffs | Conf Win % | ML Conf Win | NBA Champ Win % | ML on NBA Champ |
NBA Playoff Simulation
| Team | Before Playoffs | Probabilities – Updated 5/26 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prob of Making 2nd Round | Prob of Making Conf Finals | Prob of Winning Conference | Prob of Winning NBA Championship | Prob of Making 2nd Round | Prob of Making Conf Finals | Prob of Winning Conference | Prob of Winning NBA Championship | |