For the second year in a row, we are here to analyze the probabilities for each team to make the College Football Playoff. With one week to go, the Pac-12 is out of the CFP Playoff, so there are really only sixteen scenarios that we need to examine. These scenarios revolve around the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and ACC Championships. The lines on the games (as of this writing) don’t differ our projections by more than 4% on any game, so we will simply use the DRatings odds to win.
2018 College Football Playoff Scenarios
Scenario #1: Clemson, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Alabama win
Chance of Happening: 52.0%
CFP Rankings:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Oklahoma (90%), Ohio St (10%)
The top three here are clear. The only way that we see Ohio State jumping Oklahoma is in a really close Big 12 Championship and a very convincing Ohio State win. Even then, we think this would lean Oklahoma.
Scenario #2: Clemson, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Georgia win
Chance of Happening: 7.1%
CFP Rankings:
1. Clemson (50%), Georgia (50%)
2. Clemson (50%), Georgia (50%)
3. Alabama (50%), Notre Dame (50%)
4. Alabama (50%), Notre Dame (50%)
If Alabama loses and all the other favorites win, then things could end up getting really crazy. We don’t believe there is any scenario where Alabama won’t get in, so here, we know the four teams but not the order.
Scenario #3: Clemson, Ohio St, Texas, Alabama win
Chance of Happening: 8.2%
CFP Rankings:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Ohio State
This is clearly Ohio State’s easiest path to the CFP Playoff. An Oklahoma loss and the favorites winning in all the other Championships will lock them into the #4 spot.
Scenario #4: Clemson, Ohio St, Texas, Georgia win
Chance of Happening: 2.0%
CFP Rankings:
1. Clemson (50%), Georgia (50%)
2. Clemson (50%), Georgia (50%)
3. Alabama (50%), Notre Dame (50%)
4. Alabama (50%), Notre Dame (50%)
See Scenario #2. We would get two SEC teams. No chance of Ohio State jumping Notre Dame or Alabama.
Scenario #5: Clemson, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Alabama win
Chance of Happening: 11.4%
CFP Rankings:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Oklahoma
Similar to Scenario #1 where the Big Ten game would be deemed mostly irrelevant.
Scenario #6: Clemson, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Georgia win
Chance of Happening: 1.6%
CFP Rankings:
1. Clemson (50%), Georgia (50%)
2. Clemson (50%), Georgia (50%)
3. Alabama (50%), Notre Dame (50%)
4. Alabama (45%), Notre Dame (50%), Oklahoma (5%)
I guess we can leave open the very slight possibility that Alabama drops out of the playoff here. Very highly unlikely, but there might be a chance if they get crushed by Georgia and Oklahoma plays great against Texas.
Scenario #7: Clemson, Northwestern, Texas, Alabama win
Chance of Happening: 3.2%
CFP Rankings:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgia (50%), Michigan (25%), UCF (25%)
This is the coolest scenario of the bunch. An Ohio State plus Oklahoma loss would wreck havoc on the #4 spot and would surely cause the committee a sleepless night. Who would be most deserving? A two-loss Georgia team coming off a loss to the best team in the country? A two-loss Michigan team that didn’t play in a conference championship? Or undefeated UCF (assuming they win the American)?
Scenario #8: Clemson, Northwestern, Texas, Georgia win
Chance of Happening: 0.4%
CFP Rankings:
1. Clemson (50%), Georgia (50%)
2. Clemson (50%), Georgia (50%)
3. Alabama (50%), Notre Dame (50%)
4. Alabama (50%), Notre Dame (50%)
Top four is locked, but it would be interesting to see how everyone is seeded.
Scenario #9: Pittsburgh, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Alabama win
Chance of Happening: 4.3%
CFP Rankings:
1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Oklahoma (75%), Clemson (25%)
4. Clemson (50%), Ohio St (25%), Oklahoma (25%)
Notre Dame would jump to #2 and Oklahoma would be in, but just how far would Clemson fall? We estimate that they would have about a 25% chance of not making the playoff in this scenario.
Scenario #10: Pittsburgh, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Georgia win
Chance of Happening: 0.6%
CFP Rankings:
1. Georgia (80%), Notre Dame (20%)
2. Notre Dame (50%), Alabama (30%), Georgia (20%)
3. Alabama (70%), Notre Dame (30%)
4. Clemson (50%), Oklahoma (40%), Ohio State (10%)
Talk about wild! The chances of this scenario coming true are very low, but it would completely throw the CFP Playoff in disarray!
Scenario #11: Pittsburgh, Ohio St, Texas, Alabama win
Chance of Happening: 1.2%
CFP Rankings:
1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Clemson (50%), Ohio State (50%)
4. Ohio State (50%), Clemson (50%)
The question here is could Ohio State end up as a #3-seed in the CFP Playoff?
Scenario #12: Pittsburgh, Ohio St, Texas, Georgia win
Chance of Happening: 0.2%
CFP Rankings:
1. Georgia (80%), Notre Dame (20%)
2. Notre Dame (50%), Alabama (30%), Georgia (20%)
3. Alabama (70%), Notre Dame (30%)
4. Clemson (50%), Ohio State (50%)
Pure chaos for the all four spots and would Ohio State would earn their way into the seeding?
Scenario #13: Pittsburgh, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Alabama win
Chance of Happening: 1.0%
CFP Rankings:
1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Oklahoma (70%), Clemson (30%)
4. Clemson (70%), Oklahoma (30%)
Alabama and Notre Dame would be locked into the top two seeds, and Oklahoma and Clemson would both have a strong argument for three and four.
Scenario #14: Pittsburgh, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Georgia win
Chance of Happening: 0.1%
CFP Rankings:
1. Georgia (80%), Notre Dame (20%)
2. Notre Dame (50%), Alabama (30%), Georgia (20%)
3. Alabama (70%), Notre Dame (30%)
4. Clemson (50%), Oklahoma (50%)
Would Georgia beating Alabama and Oklahoma winning be enough to take Clemson out of the seeding? We could see this going either way.
Scenario #15: Pittsburgh, Northwestern, Texas, Alabama win
Chance of Happening: 0.3%
CFP Rankings:
1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Clemson
4. Georgia (50%), Michigan (25%), UCF (25%)
This is another really cool scenario. All the underdogs win except Alabama and it throws the seeding completely upside down. Could we see Michigan or UCF sneak in?
Scenario #16: Pittsburgh, Northwestern, Texas, Georgia win
Chance of Happening: <0.1%
CFP Rankings:
1. Georgia (80%), Notre Dame (20%)
2. Notre Dame (50%), Alabama (30%), Georgia (20%)
3. Alabama (70%), Notre Dame (30%)
4. Clemson
All the underdogs winning is, frankly, not a scenario that will happen.
Odds For Each Team to Make CFP Playoff
Notre Dame: 100%
Alabama: 99.9%
Clemson: 98.6%
Oklahoma: 63.8%
Ohio State: 22.3%
Georgia: 13.8%
UCF: 0.8%
Michigan: 0.8%
For our full list of bowl projections, check out this page.