For the 2018 World Cup, UEFA is granted fourteen spots from the 55 teams in it’s confederation. One team, Russia, is an automatic qualifier because the tournament will be played in their country. The other 54 teams vie for the other thirteen spots by way of a round-robin tournament which is made up of nine groups with six teams per group. The winners of each of these groups will qualify for the World Cup. The top eight (of nine) second place teams in each of these groups will then draw another second place team to play in a two game home-and-away to determine who will fill the other four slots.
Group G is perhaps the most interesting group in that it has both Italy and Spain in the group. Regardless of who wins that group, the loser will likely be a heavy favorite in the playoff round to move on to Russia. In Group B, Portugal is a team that will be facing a similar situation if they can’t pull off the win in their table. After four games, there appears to five locks (greater than 90% chance to advance) in France, Germany, Poland, England and Belgium. The odds on favorites to fill the last eight spots are Switzerland, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Croatia, Serbia, and the Netherlands.
We simulated all of the games 1,000 times based on our most current rankings of all FIFA International Clubs.
For our individual game projections, see: World Cup Game Predictions.
For our CONCACAF World Cup projections, see: CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying Projections.
For our CONMEBOL World Cup projections, see: CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying Projections.
For our CAF World Cup projections, see: CAF World Cup Qualifying Projections.
For our AFC World Cup projections, see: AFC World Cup Qualifying Projections.
Originally on 3/30/2017.
UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group A – Wins, Losses, Points
|
Actual |
Projected |
| Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
| France |
5 |
1 |
2 |
17 |
6.3 |
1.2 |
2.5 |
21.3 |
| Sweden |
5 |
2 |
1 |
16 |
6 |
2.5 |
1.4 |
19.6 |
| Netherlands |
4 |
3 |
1 |
13 |
5 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
16.5 |
| Bulgaria |
4 |
4 |
0 |
12 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
0.5 |
14.4 |
| Belarus |
1 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
1.3 |
6.2 |
2.5 |
6.4 |
| Luxembourg |
1 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
1.3 |
6.2 |
2.4 |
6.4 |
UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group B – Wins, Losses, Points
|
Actual |
Projected |
| Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
| Switzerland |
8 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
8.9 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
27 |
| Portugal |
7 |
1 |
0 |
21 |
8.4 |
1.3 |
0.4 |
25.5 |
| Hungary |
3 |
4 |
1 |
10 |
3.8 |
4.8 |
1.3 |
12.9 |
| Faroe Islands |
2 |
4 |
2 |
8 |
2.7 |
4.9 |
2.4 |
10.6 |
| Latvia |
1 |
7 |
0 |
3 |
1.7 |
7.8 |
0.5 |
5.6 |
| Andorra |
1 |
6 |
1 |
4 |
1.2 |
7.3 |
1.5 |
5.2 |
UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group C – Wins, Losses, Points
|
Actual |
Projected |
| Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
| Germany |
8 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
9.4 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
28.4 |
| Northern Ireland |
6 |
1 |
1 |
19 |
6.7 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
21.5 |
| Czech Republic |
2 |
3 |
3 |
9 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.4 |
13.2 |
| Azerbaijan |
3 |
4 |
1 |
10 |
3.3 |
5.2 |
1.4 |
11.5 |
| Norway |
2 |
5 |
1 |
7 |
3.1 |
5.5 |
1.4 |
10.7 |
| San Marino |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0.1 |
9.7 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group D – Wins, Losses, Points
|
Actual |
Projected |
| Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
| Ireland |
4 |
0 |
4 |
16 |
4.9 |
0.6 |
4.5 |
19.1 |
| Serbia |
4 |
1 |
3 |
15 |
5 |
1.5 |
3.6 |
18.5 |
| Wales |
3 |
0 |
5 |
14 |
4 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
17.5 |
| Austria |
2 |
3 |
3 |
9 |
2.9 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
12.2 |
| Georgia |
0 |
3 |
5 |
5 |
0.4 |
4.1 |
5.6 |
6.7 |
| Moldova |
0 |
6 |
2 |
2 |
0.3 |
7.2 |
2.5 |
3.4 |
UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group E – Wins, Losses, Points
|
Actual |
Projected |
| Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
| Poland |
6 |
1 |
1 |
19 |
7.3 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
23.2 |
| Denmark |
5 |
2 |
1 |
16 |
6 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
19.6 |
| Montenegro |
5 |
2 |
1 |
16 |
5.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
18 |
| Romania |
2 |
3 |
3 |
9 |
2.8 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
11.8 |
| Armenia |
2 |
6 |
0 |
6 |
2.5 |
7.1 |
0.4 |
7.9 |
| Kazakhstan |
0 |
6 |
2 |
2 |
0.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
4.1 |
UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group F – Wins, Losses, Points
|
Actual |
Projected |
| Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
| England |
6 |
0 |
2 |
20 |
7.3 |
0.3 |
2.5 |
24.3 |
| Slovakia |
5 |
3 |
0 |
15 |
6 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
18.4 |
| Scotland |
4 |
2 |
2 |
14 |
4.7 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
16.6 |
| Slovenia |
4 |
2 |
2 |
14 |
4.6 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
16.3 |
| Lithuania |
1 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
1.5 |
6 |
2.5 |
7 |
| Malta |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0.4 |
9 |
0.5 |
1.9 |
UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group G – Wins, Losses, Points
|
Actual |
Projected |
| Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
| Spain |
7 |
0 |
1 |
22 |
8.3 |
0.2 |
1.4 |
26.4 |
| Italy |
6 |
1 |
1 |
19 |
7.2 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
23 |
| Albania |
4 |
3 |
1 |
13 |
4.3 |
4.1 |
1.6 |
14.5 |
| Israel |
3 |
5 |
0 |
9 |
3.8 |
5.8 |
0.4 |
11.8 |
| FYR Macedonia |
2 |
5 |
1 |
7 |
2.8 |
5.7 |
1.5 |
9.8 |
| Liechtenstein |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0.2 |
9.4 |
0.4 |
1 |
UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group H – Wins, Losses, Points
|
Actual |
Projected |
| Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
| Belgium |
7 |
0 |
1 |
22 |
8.3 |
0.3 |
1.4 |
26.2 |
| Greece |
3 |
1 |
4 |
13 |
4.1 |
1.4 |
4.5 |
16.9 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina |
4 |
2 |
2 |
14 |
4.8 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
16.8 |
| Cyprus |
3 |
4 |
1 |
10 |
3.4 |
5 |
1.5 |
11.8 |
| Estonia |
2 |
4 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
4.6 |
2.4 |
11.5 |
| Gibraltar |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0.1 |
9.6 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Group I – Wins, Losses, Points
|
Actual |
Projected |
| Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
Wins |
Losses |
Draws |
Points |
| Iceland |
5 |
2 |
1 |
16 |
6 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
19.5 |
| Croatia |
5 |
2 |
1 |
16 |
6 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
19.4 |
| Ukraine |
4 |
2 |
2 |
14 |
5.1 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
17.9 |
| Turkey |
4 |
2 |
2 |
14 |
4.9 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
17.1 |
| Finland |
2 |
5 |
1 |
7 |
2.4 |
6.1 |
1.5 |
8.8 |
| Kosovo |
0 |
7 |
1 |
1 |
0.2 |
8.5 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
#Eight games out of ten have been played in the UEFA home-and-away schedule. The final two games will be between October 5th and October 10th, 2017. The above table is sorted by projection, not actual results.
UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Probability to Win Group/Advance/Not Advance
|
Probability to Win/Advance/Not Advance |
| Group |
Team |
Win Group |
Advance |
Not Advance |
| A |
France |
74.9% |
91.6% |
8.4% |
| Sweden |
24.3% |
58.3% |
41.7% |
| Netherlands |
0.7% |
6.9% |
93.1% |
| Bulgaria |
0.1% |
0.1% |
99.9% |
| Belarus |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| Luxembourg |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| B |
Switzerland |
47.4% |
73.9% |
26.1% |
| Portugal |
52.6% |
82.7% |
17.3% |
| Hungary |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| Faroe Islands |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| Latvia |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| Andorra |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| C |
Germany |
99.6% |
99.9% |
0.1% |
| Northern Ireland |
0.4% |
44.7% |
55.3% |
| Czech Republic |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| Azerbaijan |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| Norway |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| San Marino |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| D |
Ireland |
43% |
54% |
46% |
| Serbia |
33.1% |
51.3% |
48.7% |
| Wales |
23.9% |
34.4% |
65.6% |
| Austria |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| Georgia |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| Moldova |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| E |
Poland |
82% |
90.6% |
9.4% |
| Denmark |
10.7% |
47.4% |
52.6% |
| Montenegro |
7.3% |
14.1% |
85.9% |
| Romania |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| Armenia |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| Kazakhstan |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| F |
England |
99.2% |
99.6% |
0.4% |
| Slovakia |
0.8% |
21.1% |
78.9% |
| Scotland |
0% |
4.5% |
95.5% |
| Slovenia |
0% |
1.9% |
98.1% |
| Lithuania |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| Malta |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| G |
Spain |
96.3% |
99.1% |
0.9% |
| Italy |
3.7% |
68.3% |
31.7% |
| Albania |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| Israel |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| FYR Macedonia |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| Liechtenstein |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| H |
Belgium |
100% |
100% |
0% |
| Greece |
0% |
5.8% |
94.2% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina |
0% |
12.1% |
87.9% |
| Cyprus |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| Estonia |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| Gibraltar |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| I |
Iceland |
27.2% |
42.7% |
57.3% |
| Croatia |
45.7% |
57% |
43% |
| Ukraine |
19.7% |
24.8% |
75.2% |
| Turkey |
7.4% |
13.2% |
86.8% |
| Finland |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| Kosovo |
0% |
0% |
100% |
##The probability to advance includes both the chances of winning the group and the chance to win their playoff match if finishing second in the group.
UEFA World Cup Qualifying – Probability to Advance Over Time
| Group |
Team |
Projections by Matchday |
| Pre-Tourney |
After 4 Games |
After 5 Games |
After 6 Games |
After 8 Games |
| A |
France |
87.1% |
95.2% |
96.9% |
89.2% |
91.6% |
| Netherlands |
42.1% |
42.5% |
20.1% |
15.1% |
6.9% |
| Sweden |
22.9% |
17.2% |
31% |
50.2% |
58.3% |
| Belarus |
2% |
0.2% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Bulgaria |
1.5% |
0.7% |
2.2% |
2% |
0.1% |
| Luxembourg |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| B |
Portugal |
75.9% |
74.6% |
78.8% |
79.6% |
82.7% |
| Switzerland |
55.1% |
80.8% |
82.6% |
85.1% |
73.9% |
| Hungary |
18.5% |
6.3% |
1.3% |
0.1% |
0% |
| Faroe Islands |
1.2% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Latvia |
0.4% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Andorra |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| C |
Germany |
93.7% |
99.2% |
99.9% |
99.8% |
99.9% |
| Northern Ireland |
26.5% |
26.9% |
33.8% |
38.9% |
44.7% |
| Czech Republic |
12.7% |
4.8% |
4.8% |
2.5% |
0% |
| Norway |
3.3% |
0.3% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Azerbaijan |
0.4% |
0.9% |
0.1% |
0% |
0% |
| San Marino |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| D |
Wales |
44.8% |
24.4% |
20.6% |
22.1% |
34.4% |
| Ireland |
38.3% |
71.5% |
62.4% |
56.7% |
54% |
| Serbia |
33.9% |
40.9% |
56.5% |
54.3% |
51.3% |
| Austria |
25.8% |
7.3% |
7.5% |
8.1% |
0% |
| Georgia |
2.9% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Moldova |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| E |
Poland |
80.8% |
92.4% |
97.9% |
99.4% |
90.6% |
| Romania |
24% |
11.1% |
5.6% |
1.6% |
0% |
| Denmark |
15.5% |
5.3% |
5% |
4.7% |
47.4% |
| Montenegro |
9% |
13.6% |
5.2% |
6.7% |
14.1% |
| Armenia |
0.9% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0% |
0% |
| Kazakhstan |
0.9% |
0.1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| F |
England |
72% |
93.1% |
96.4% |
92.5% |
99.6% |
| Slovakia |
25.3% |
17.5% |
21.7% |
29.3% |
21.1% |
| Slovenia |
24.9% |
19.5% |
10.5% |
8.5% |
1.9% |
| Scotland |
11.5% |
2.7% |
2.9% |
2.2% |
4.5% |
| Lithuania |
1.9% |
0.5% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Malta |
0.1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| G |
Italy |
70.9% |
72.6% |
77.7% |
82.2% |
68.3% |
| Spain |
64.9% |
74.8% |
80.6% |
85.8% |
99.1% |
| Israel |
11.9% |
11.3% |
5.8% |
0.4% |
0% |
| Albania |
6% |
0.4% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| FYR Macedonia |
0.1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Liechtenstein |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| H |
Belgium |
90.4% |
95.8% |
95.3% |
97.4% |
100% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina |
37.1% |
34.1% |
32.4% |
21.1% |
12.1% |
| Greece |
13.6% |
13.3% |
15.7% |
20.2% |
5.8% |
| Cyprus |
1.9% |
0% |
0% |
0.1% |
0% |
| Estonia |
0.7% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Gibraltar |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| I |
Croatia |
51.7% |
69.7% |
78.6% |
57.6% |
57% |
| Iceland |
39.2% |
39.7% |
41.8% |
49.9% |
42.7% |
| Ukraine |
27.7% |
24.3% |
14.3% |
19.1% |
24.8% |
| Turkey |
26.1% |
14.3% |
14% |
17.6% |
13.2% |
| Finland |
2% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Kosovo |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
