Below are listed our most updated projections for the college football bowl games. This year, there are a total of 41 bowl games and teams must have a record of 6-6 or better to be eligible for a bowl game. Since there are not enough teams that are eligible to qualify, teams that are 5-7 will be eligible based on which teams have the highest APR.
For our college football bowl projections, we place teams in the bowls using the same criteria that the bowl people use. For a full list of bowl affiliations, 2016-2017 College Football Bowl Tie-Ins For Each Conference is a great reference point. For all of our rankings on each of these teams, go to NCAA FBS Ratings.
It is important to note that these are forward looking projections of the current season. This means that the bowl projections are different than if the season ended today. We look ahead and project match ups in the future to help determine who is most likely to lock in the different bowl slots.
Highest APR for Non-Bowl Eligible Teams
| Team | APR | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 984 | 5 | 7 |
| Texas | 971 | 5 | 7 |
| Hawaii | 971 | 6 | 7 |
| Mississippi St | 971 | 5 | 7 |
| N Illinois | 970 | 5 | 7 |
| California | 960 | 5 | 7 |
| Arizona St | 960 | 5 | 7 |
| Mississippi | 958 | 5 | 7 |
| Akron | 947 | 5 | 7 |
| SMU | 945 | 5 | 7 |
| Texas Tech | 941 | 5 | 7 |
Currently, there are eleven teams that do not have at least a .500 winning percentage that is necessary to become automatically bowl eligible. The preceding list is the latest Academic Progress Rate data taken from the NCAA web site. If there are bowl spots left to fill then the top teams on this list will be the first selected to qualify for a bowl game.
BOLD denotes that the team has accepted a bid to the bowl.
Updated on 12/4/2016 @ 10:15pm EST.
College Football Bowl Projections
| Date | Bowl | Location | Team 1 | Team 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/17/2016 | Camelia | Montgomery, AL | Toledo | Appalachian St |
| 12/17/2016 | Cure | Orlando, FL | UCF | Arkansas St |
| 12/17/2016 | Las Vegas | Las Vegas, NV | San Diego St | Houston |
| 12/17/2016 | New Mexico | Albuquerque, NM | UT San Antonio | New Mexico |
| 12/17/2016 | New Orleans | New Orleans, LA | Southern Miss | ULL |
| 12/19/2016 | Miami Beach | Miami, FL | Tulsa | C Michigan |
| 12/20/2016 | Boca Raton | Boca Raton, FL | Memphis | WKU |
| 12/21/2016 | Poinsettia | San Diego, CA | Wyoming | BYU |
| 12/22/2016 | Potato | Boise, ID | Idaho | Colorado St |
| 12/23/2016 | Dollar General | Mobile, AL | Ohio | Troy |
| 12/23/2016 | Bahamas | Nassau, BS | Old Dominion | E Michigan |
| 12/23/2016 | Armed Forces | Fort Worth, TX | Navy | Louisiana Tech |
| 12/24/2016 | Hawaii | Honolulu, HI | MTSU | Hawaii |
| 12/26/2016 | Independence | Shreveport, LA | NC State | Vanderbilt |
| 12/26/2016 | St. Petersburg | St. Petersburg, FL | Miami OH | Mississippi St |
| 12/26/2016 | Quick Lane | Detroit, MI | Boston College | Maryland |
| 12/27/2016 | Heart of Dallas | Dallas, TX | North Texas | Army |
| 12/27/2016 | Military | Annapolis, MD | Wake Forest | Temple |
| 12/27/2016 | Holiday | San Diego, CA | Minnesota | Washington St |
| 12/27/2016 | Cactus | Tempe, AZ | Baylor | Boise St |
| 12/28/2016 | Pinstripe | New York, NY | Pittsburgh | Northwestern |
| 12/28/2016 | Russell Athletic | Orlando, FL | Miami FL | West Virginia |
| 12/28/2016 | Texas | Houston, TX | Kansas St | Texas A&M |
| 12/28/2016 | Foster Farms | Santa Clara, CA | Indiana | Utah |
| 12/29/2016 | Belk | Charlotte, NC | Virginia Tech | Arkansas |
| 12/29/2016 | Birmingham | Birmingham, AL | South Florida | South Carolina |
| 12/29/2016 | Alamo | San Antonio, TX | Oklahoma St | Colorado |
| 12/30/2016 | Sun | El Paso, NM | North Carolina | Stanford |
| 12/30/2016 | Arizona | Tucson, AZ | South Alabama | Air Force |
| 12/30/2016 | Music City | Nashville, TN | Nebraska | Tennessee |
| 12/30/2016 | Liberty | Memphis, TN | TCU | Georgia |
| 12/31/2016 | Citrus | Orlando, FL | Louisville | LSU |
| 12/31/2016 | TaxSlayer | Jacksonville, FL | Georgia Tech | Kentucky |
| 1/2/2017 | Outback | Tampa, FL | Iowa | Florida |
New Year’s Bowl Projections
| Date | Bowl | Location | Team 1 | Team 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/30/2016 | Orange | Miami, FL | Florida St | Michigan |
| 1/2/2017 | Cotton | Arlington, TX | Wisconsin | W Michigan |
| 1/2/2017 | Rose | Pasadena, CA | Penn St | USC |
| 1/2/2017 | Sugar | New Orleans, LA | Oklahoma | Auburn |
The top-rated non Power-5 team is guaranteed a spot in one of the New Year’s big bowls. Currently, we expect that recipient will be Western Michigan as they should go 13-0 on the season.
National Championship Playoff Bowl Projections
| Date | Bowl | Location | Team 1 | Team 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2016 | Peach | Atlanta, GA | Alabama | Washington |
| 12/31/2016 | Fiesta | Glendale, AZ | Clemson | Ohio St |
The CFP Selection Committee selects the top four teams to play for the National Championship. This year, the play-in games are the Peach Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl. Our projections have the committee putting Alabama at 1, Clemson at 2, Ohio State at 3 and Washington at 4.
National Championship Bowl Projections
| Date | Bowl | Location | Team 1 | Team 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/9/2017 | Championship | Tampa, FL | Alabama | Ohio St |
Our rating system projects that Alabama would be heavily favored against Washington and Ohio State would be slightly favored over Clemson.