2017 is shaping up to be the hardest year for the College Football Playoff Committee to pick the four teams that make the CFP Playoff. Though it may seem pretty complicated, with the Pac-12 all but out of the CFP Playoff, there are really only sixteen scenarios that we need to examine. These scenarios are based on the results of the ACC Championship, SEC Championship, Big 10 Championship and Big 12 Championship. The following projections are based on a few different things that we will discuss below.
College Football Playoff Assumptions
1. Ohio State vs. Alabama: Las Vegas Football Futures has Alabama as a 4:1 co-favorite to win the National Championship and Ohio State as a 7:1 favorite. This tells us that no one is quite sure who would get the bid between a one loss Alabama or a two loss, conference champion in Ohio State. We think Alabama may have the slight edge, so we will generally note that Alabama will have a slight edge in this scenario.
2. ACC Championship: Clemson is a 9.5 point favorite at GTBets and our projections give them a 73.6% chance of winning. We will give Clemson a 76% chance of winning for our “Chance of Happening” calculation.
3. SEC Championship: Auburn is a 2.5 point favorite at multiple sportsbooks and we give them a slight edge of winning. Overall we will give Auburn a 56% chance of winning.
4. Big 10 Championship: This is the toughest one to project because Ohio State has a Jekyll and Hyde type personality. Our projection has the game as a toss up, but GTBets has the line at 6. Using a combination of these numbers, we will use implied odds of 60% that Ohio State wins.
5. Big 12 Championship: Our projections align with Vegas, and we give Oklahoma implied odds of 68% to win their conference championship.
2017 College Football Playoff Scenarios
Scenario #1: Clemson, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Auburn win
Chance of Happening: 17.4%
CFP Rankings:
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Auburn
4. Alabama (55%), Ohio St (45%)
This is the most likely scenario as it would have the favorites winning their conference championship games. Under this scenario, the top three would pretty clearly be Clemson at 1, Oklahoma at 2, and Auburn at 3. As noted above, the 4th slot is a tough one between Alabama and Ohio State.
Scenario #2: Clemson, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Georgia win
Chance of Happening: 13.6%
CFP Rankings:
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Alabama (55%), Ohio St (45%)
Very similar situation to Scenario #1 except that you could swap Georgia for Auburn into the #3 slot. Victories by Clemson and Oklahoma will lock them into the #1 and #2 slots.
Scenario #3: Clemson, Ohio St, TCU, Auburn win
Chance of Happening: 8.2%
CFP Rankings:
1. Clemson
2. Auburn
3. Alabama (55%), Ohio State (45%)
4. Ohio State (53%), Alabama (43%), TCU (2%), USC (2%)
Under this scenario, we think that the top four would be pretty clear cut. Maybe a very slim chance of TCU or USC sneaking in with a win, but unlikely.
Scenario #4: Clemson, Ohio St, TCU, Georgia win
Chance of Happening: 6.4%
CFP Rankings:
1. Clemson
2. Georgia
3. Alabama (55%), Ohio State (45%)
4. Ohio State (53%), Alabama (43%), TCU (2%), USC (2%)
See Scenario #3, but with Georgia instead of Auburn at #2.
Scenario #5: Clemson, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Auburn win
Chance of Happening: 11.6%
CFP Rankings:
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Wisconsin (70%), Auburn (30%)
4. Auburn (70%), Wisconsin (30%)
Here we would end up with a clear top 4. Clemson and Oklahoma still the clear #1 and #2. Wisconsin and Auburn would battle for #3.
Scenario #6: Clemson, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Georgia win
Chance of Happening: 9.1%
CFP Rankings:
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Wisconsin (70%), Georgia (30%)
4. Georgia (65%), Wisconsin (30%), Alabama (5%)
Similar to Scenario #5, but with a caveat. Is there any chance the committee puts Alabama in over Georgia? I don’t think so, but it’s a slight possibility.
Scenario #7: Clemson, Wisconsin, TCU, Auburn win
Chance of Happening: 5.4%
CFP Rankings:
1. Clemson
2. Wisconsin (75%), Auburn (25%)
3. Auburn (75%), Wisconsin (25%)
4. Alabama
This one seems easy. We think the top four is very clear under this scenario. Maybe some argument for Auburn over Wisconsin at #2.
Scenario #8: Clemson, Wisconsin, TCU, Georgia win
Chance of Happening: 4.3%
CFP Rankings:
1. Clemson
2. Wisconsin (75%), Georgia (25%)
3. Georgia (75%), Wisconsin (25%)
4. Alabama
Simply swap Georgia for Auburn in this scenario.
Scenario #9: Miami, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Auburn win
Chance of Happening: 5.5%
CFP Rankings:
1. Oklahoma
2. Auburn
3. Miami
4. Alabama (55%), Ohio St (45%)
Oklahoma would jump to #1, Auburn to #2, Miami to #3. For #4, we get back to what would be a very intense debate between Ohio State and Alabama
Scenario #10: Miami, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Georgia win
Chance of Happening: 4.3%
CFP Rankings:
1. Oklahoma
2. Georgia
3. Miami
4. Alabama (55%), Ohio St (45%)
Exact same rankings as Scenario #9, except swap Auburn for Georgia at the 2 spot.
Scenario #11: Miami, Ohio St, TCU, Auburn win
Chance of Happening: 8.2%
CFP Rankings:
1. Auburn
2. Miami
3. Alabama (55%), Ohio State (45%)
4. Ohio State (53%), Alabama (43%), TCU (2%), USC (2%)
Similar to Scenario #3, but with Miami winning over Clemson.
Scenario #12: Clemson, Ohio St, TCU, Georgia win
Chance of Happening: 6.4%
CFP Rankings:
1. Georgia
2. Miami
3. Alabama (55%), Ohio State (45%)
4. Ohio State (53%), Alabama (43%), TCU (2%), USC (2%)
See Scenario #11, but with Georgia instead of Auburn at #1.
Scenario #13: Miami, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Auburn win
Chance of Happening: 3.7%
CFP Rankings:
1. Oklahoma
2. Wisconsin (70%), Auburn (30%)
3. Auburn (70%), Wisconsin (30%)
4. Miami
The big question here would be which team got the 2nd and 3rd spots.
Scenario #14: Miami, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Georgia win
Chance of Happening: 2.9%
CFP Rankings:
1. Oklahoma
2. Wisconsin (70%), Georgia (30%)
3. Georgia (70%), Wisconsin (30%)
4. Miami
Again, does Wisconsin or Georgia get the #2 spot?
Scenario #15: Miami, Wisconsin, TCU, Auburn win
Chance of Happening: 1.7%
CFP Rankings:
1. Wisconsin
2. Auburn
3. Miami
4. Alabama
Here, there is a clear-cut top four. There may have been debate over who #1 is, but that would lean Wisconsin to avoid an All-SEC semi.
Scenario #16: Miami, Wisconsin, TCU, Georgia win
Chance of Happening: 1.4%
CFP Rankings:
1. Wisconsin
2. Georgia
3. Miami
4. Alabama
Similar to Scenario #15, but swapping Georgia for Auburn.
Conclusion
All said, there are six teams that are in if they win: Clemson, Miami, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Auburn and Georgia. If they can win in the Big Ten Championship game, we are likely to see an epic decision between Ohio State and Alabama in the playoff. However, if Wisconsin wins, then there is much less debate as to who the top four teams will be. One way or another, we will be watching as this is the most exciting Championship Week in recent history! For our full list of bowl projections, check out this page.