2017-2018 French Ligue 1 Season Simulation

 in Soccer / Sports Predictions by (updated 1978 days ago)

france ligue 1 psgThe French Ligue 1 is made up of twenty teams. Similarly to the other top flight football leagues, each play in a home-and-home series against each other for a total of 38 games in a season.

For the 2017/2018 campaign, France has a UEFA country coefficient that has them ranked fifth. This coefficient is used to determine how many bids each country earns for Champions League and Europa League invitations. Currently, the French Ligue 1 is granted two automatic bids to Champions League group play, one spot for Champions League qualification, and two spots to Europa league qualification.

The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2. The team that finishes in the 18th position will play against the 3rd place team in Ligue 2 to determine who will get to play in Ligue 1 in the following year.

Below, we simulated the Ligue 1 season 1,000 times. For our individual game projections, see: Ligue 1 Game Predictions. Also, see our simulations on the current seasons of the English Premier League, Champions League and Europa League.

Updates

January 2nd, 2018: With 50 points, PSG has a nine point lead over both Monaco and Lyon. In our 1,000 simulations, they won the league in 999 of them. Beside Metz, who now has over a 96% chance to be relegated, there is quite a battle for the 18th and 19th spots. No other team has greater than a 32% chance of being in the bottom three.

October 25th, 2017: After a very strong start, we now project that PSG has a 98.6% chance to win the league. This is a very high number only eleven weeks into the season, but there really isn’t anyone else close.

August 2nd, 2017: Our first simulation on the 2017/2018 Ligue 1 season. Note that this simulation was done without knowing if Neymar’s transfer to PSG will go through. Like last year, PSG is the heavy favorite leading into the campaign with a 90.7% chance to win the league. Monaco, last year’s champ, comes in second with a 7.5% chance to win the league.

Original Posting (for the 2017/2018 season): 8/2/2017
Last simulation was done on 1/2/2018.

French Ligue 1 Season Prediction – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Paris SG
16
1
2
50
31.2
2.3
4.6
98
Lyon
12
2
5
41
23
5.9
9.1
78.2
Monaco
13
4
2
41
23.5
8.2
6.2
76.8
Marseille
11
3
5
38
20.1
8.1
9.8
70.1
Nantes
10
6
3
33
16.2
13.6
8.2
56.9
Nice
8
8
3
27
16
14.2
7.9
55.7
Rennes
7
8
4
25
13.8
15.3
8.9
50.2
Montpellier
6
5
8
26
12.4
12.8
12.8
50
Guingamp
7
7
5
26
13.3
14.7
10.1
49.9
Strasbourg
6
7
6
24
12.3
15
10.7
47.6
Dijon
7
9
3
24
12.6
17.7
7.7
45.4
Amiens
6
10
3
21
12.4
17.7
7.9
45
Bordeaux
5
9
5
20
11.6
16.4
10
44.8
Troyes
6
10
3
21
12.3
17.9
7.8
44.6
St Etienne
5
9
5
20
10.9
17.1
10
42.8
Caen
7
9
3
24
11.4
18.8
7.8
42.1
Toulouse
5
10
4
19
10.8
18.3
8.9
41.4
Lille
5
10
4
19
10.7
18.2
9.1
41.3
Angers
3
7
9
18
9
14.8
14.1
41.2
Metz
3
14
2
11
7.4
23.8
6.8
29

French Ligue 1 Season Prediction – Probability to win Title, Relegation

Probability to Win/Advance/Be Demoted
Team League Champs Lg Europa Lg Relegation
Paris SG
99.9%
100%
0%
0%
Lyon
0%
87.2%
12.7%
0%
Monaco
0.1%
83.6%
16.4%
0%
Marseille
0%
28.3%
68.7%
0%
Nantes
0%
0.6%
34.5%
0.2%
Nice
0%
0.1%
32.2%
0%
Rennes
0%
0%
6.5%
2.5%
Montpellier
0%
0.1%
7.7%
2%
Guingamp
0%
0.1%
8.6%
3.1%
Strasbourg
0%
0%
4.2%
5.4%
Dijon
0%
0%
1.8%
10.8%
Amiens
0%
0%
1.4%
10.8%
Bordeaux
0%
0%
1.6%
12.6%
Troyes
0%
0%
2.2%
12.9%
St Etienne
0%
0%
0.4%
23.8%
Caen
0%
0%
0.6%
28.1%
Toulouse
0%
0%
0.2%
29.7%
Lille
0%
0%
0.1%
31.8%
Angers
0%
0%
0.2%
30.2%
Metz
0%
0%
0%
96.1%

The relegation probabilities above do not include the chances of losing to the Ligue 2 team in the Relegation playoffs if the team finishes 18th in the table.