Half Point Values for College Football Totals

 in Betting / College Football by (updated 378 days ago)

With the season right around the corner and Week 0 lines already available, it is time start thinking about college football betting! As the days tick on in preseason camp, we are constantly learning more about each team. Weather reports are starting to come out and they will become more accurate by the day. Consequently, we are going to see a decent amount of line movement over the next few weeks.

This blog will focus on totals (otherwise known as over/under’s). Since there is a very wide range of totals in college football, I will break the table up into four sections – small totals, low-average totals, high-average totals and large totals. Hopefully, this will make for slightly easier reading.

How to Read the Tables

The values listed below represent American prices in cents. Here is an example of how to use the tables: The no-vig line of a game is 42 (+100). You find a sportsbook that is offering under 42.5 (-108). Is this a good bet? We see that the value of going up a half a point from 42 to 42.5 is 3.05 cents. There is an eight cent difference from the no-vig to the offering number in the example. Therefore, since the difference is greater, we would pass on the bet.

Now, let’s say the no-vig price on an over 44.5 (+100) and a sportsbook is offering 44 (-102). Is this a good bet? Going up a half a point from 44.5 to 44 is worth almost 9 cents. So, the two cent penalty you would pay at 44 is well worth it and this is a bet that should absolutely be made.

Half Point Values for Small CFB Totals

It’s important to note that the numbers at extreme values of these tables are very hard to estimate. The Army/Navy game that was played in 2021 has an over/under of 35.5. Looking back at data over the last fifteen years, there were only thirty games that had totals of 35.5 or less and most of those were FCS games. Thus, the challenge of figuring out the true push probabilities for these low values is very high. As the totals get into the 40’s, we have thousands of games to use that will help us create an accurate distribution.

Here is the table for totals between 35 and 46.5…

Total Push Prob 0.5 Point Down 0.5 Point Up 1 Point Down 1 Point Up
35 2.7% 5.55 5.55 13.57 9.87
35.5 0% 5.71 4.38 11.42 8.77
36 2.1% 4.29 4.29 9.81 11.03
36.5 0% 4.38 7.07 8.77 14.13
37 3.3% 6.83 6.83 11.17 13.65
37.5 0% 7.07 7.07 14.13 14.13
38 3.3% 6.83 6.83 13.65 10.13
38.5 0% 7.07 3.31 14.13 6.61
39 1.6% 3.25 3.25 9.96 6.5
39.5 0% 3.31 3.31 6.61 6.61
40 1.6% 3.25 3.25 6.5 10.77
40.5 0% 3.31 7.99 6.61 15.98
41 3.7% 7.68 7.68 11.01 10.8
41.5 0% 7.99 3.09 15.98 6.19
42 1.5% 3.05 3.05 10.56 7.31
42.5 0% 3.09 4.38 6.19 8.77
43 2.1% 4.29 4.29 7.35 11.24
43.5 0% 4.38 7.3 8.77 14.59
44 3.4% 7.04 7.04 11.39 15.53
44.5 0% 7.3 8.93 14.59 17.86
45 4.1% 8.55 8.55 15.64 11.68
45.5 0% 8.93 3.09 17.86 6.19
46 1.5% 3.05 3.05 11.37 7.51
46.5 0% 3.09 4.6 6.19 9.21

Half Point Values for Low-Average CFB Totals

These values are much more stable than the grouping in our last section. There are thousands of observations that have allowed us to build this table with very good accuracy.

Here is the table for totals between 47 and 57.5…

Total Push Prob 0.5 Point Down 0.5 Point Up 1 Point Down 1 Point Up
47 2.2% 4.5 4.5 7.57 11.66
47.5 0% 4.6 7.53 9.21 15.05
48 3.5% 7.25 7.25 11.81 12.23
48.5 0% 7.53 5.04 15.05 10.08
49 2.4% 4.92 4.92 12.09 8.4
49.5 0% 5.04 3.52 10.08 7.04
50 1.7% 3.46 3.46 8.34 9.77
50.5 0% 3.52 6.61 7.04 13.22
51 3.1% 6.4 6.4 9.91 13
51.5 0% 6.61 6.84 13.22 13.68
52 3.2% 6.61 6.61 13.02 10.12
52.5 0% 6.84 3.52 13.68 7.04
53 1.7% 3.46 3.46 9.97 6.92
53.5 0% 3.52 3.52 7.04 7.04
54 1.7% 3.46 3.46 6.92 12.61
54.5 0% 3.52 9.89 7.04 19.78
55 4.5% 9.42 9.42 12.98 13.4
55.5 0% 9.89 3.95 19.78 7.9
56 1.9% 3.87 3.87 13.05 8.56
56.5 0% 3.95 4.82 7.9 9.64
57 2.3% 4.71 4.71 8.6 10.44
57.5 0% 4.82 5.93 9.64 11.86

Half Point Values for High-Average CFB Totals

Continuing on, here is the table for totals between 58 and 68.5…

Total Push Prob 0.5 Point Down 0.5 Point Up 1 Point Down 1 Point Up
58 2.8% 5.76 5.76 10.49 12.76
58.5 0% 5.93 7.3 11.86 14.59
59 3.4% 7.04 7.04 12.84 9.32
59.5 0% 7.3 2.25 14.59 4.5
60 1.1% 2.22 2.22 9.1 7.08
60.5 0% 2.25 5.04 4.5 10.08
61 2.4% 4.92 4.92 7.17 10.25
61.5 0% 5.04 5.49 10.08 10.97
62 2.6% 5.34 5.34 10.27 10.06
62.5 0% 5.49 4.82 10.97 9.64
63 2.3% 4.71 4.71 10.03 7.98
63.5 0% 4.82 3.31 9.64 6.61
64 1.6% 3.25 3.25 7.93 8.74
64.5 0% 3.31 5.71 6.61 11.42
65 2.7% 5.55 5.55 8.84 11.31
65.5 0% 5.71 5.93 11.42 11.86
66 2.8% 5.76 5.76 11.32 9.05
66.5 0% 5.93 3.31 11.86 6.61
67 1.6% 3.25 3.25 8.94 7.32
67.5 0% 3.31 4.17 6.61 8.33
68 2% 4.08 4.08 7.35 10
68.5 0% 4.17 6.16 8.33 12.31

Half Point Values for Large CFB Totals

Finally, we have our last grouping of games with high totals. We are not as confident in these values as there are less games to help us distinguish a good distribution at these levels.

Here is the table for totals 69 and higher…

Total Push Prob 0.5 Point Down 0.5 Point Up 1 Point Down 1 Point Up
69 2.9% 5.97 5.97 10.09 9.06
69.5 0% 6.16 3.09 12.31 6.19
70 1.5% 3.05 3.05 8.93 5.89
70.5 0% 3.09 2.88 6.19 5.76
71 1.4% 2.84 2.84 5.88 9.33
71.5 0% 2.88 6.84 5.76 13.68
72 3.2% 6.61 6.61 9.5 10.95
72.5 0% 6.84 4.38 13.68 8.77
73 2.1% 4.29 4.29 10.83 6.54
73.5 0% 4.38 2.25 8.77 4.5
74 1.1% 2.22 2.22 6.47 5.46
74.5 0% 2.25 3.31 4.5 6.61
75 1.6% 3.25 3.25 5.49 10.37
75.5 0% 3.31 7.53 6.61 15.05
76 3.5% 7.25 7.25 10.57 10.57
76.5 0% 7.53 3.31 15.05 6.61
77 1.6% 3.25 3.25 10.37 5.89
77.5 0% 3.31 2.67 6.61 5.34
78 1.3% 2.63 2.63 5.88 6.48
78.5 0% 2.67 3.95 5.34 7.9
79 1.9% 3.87 3.87 6.52 6.32
79.5 0% 3.95 2.46 7.9 4.92

Final Notes

As always, we will constantly be reevaluating these values as more game data becomes available. Our data encompasses fifteen years of data which contains over fifteen thousand games. Our analysis shows a few differences between a lot of other common half-point calculators. While we don’t know how they calulcated their data, we feel like ours is the most accurate.