Half Point Values for NFL Totals

 in General / Pro Football by

With NFL betting about to be in full swing, we are providing our half point tables for all NFL totals. Those who follow our site will know that we recently put out our college football totals, and there are many differences. The rules in the NFL and college are not the same. This leads to each specific sport have two very different distributions. One example of a rule difference that affects these distributions is the extra point, but there are others that have an effect.

For this project, we have also added data on up to two points in either direction of the target over/under. It is extremely rare to find two sportsbooks that have numbers further off than two points. Next, we have broken this down into two tables for easier reading. The first table handles all totals on the smaller end of the scale, while the second table handles the higher scoring games.

Half Point Values for Small NFL Totals

Here is the table for totals between 35 and 47.5…

Total Push Prob 0.5 Pt Down 0.5 Point Up 1 Pt Down 1 Point Up 1.5 Pt Down 1.5 Point Up 2 Pt Down 2 Point Up
35 2.37% 4.85 4.85 11.85 9.68 18.53 14.3 31.27 24.72
35.5 0% 4.97 4.5 9.93 9 17.47 18.67 24.33 27.54
36 2.17% 4.44 4.44 9.68 13.56 14.7 22.3 22.66 29.31
36.5 0% 4.54 8.53 9.08 17.06 14.69 23.6 19.83 29.18
37 3.96% 8.25 8.25 13.32 14.09 18 19.48 24.26 26.18
37.5 0% 8.61 5.17 17.21 10.34 22.95 16.25 27.84 21.6
38 2.48% 5.08 5.08 14.26 10.61 22.99 15.87 29.1 28.23
38.5 0% 5.21 5.12 10.43 10.25 20.35 21.67 29.33 32.02
39 2.46% 5.04 5.04 10.59 15.72 15.88 25.88 26.45 36.87
39.5 0% 5.17 9.89 10.34 19.78 16.33 29.94 21.76 38.41
40 4.54% 9.51 9.51 15.38 18.4 20.74 26.52 27.56 32.11
40.5 0% 9.98 7.72 19.96 15.44 26.73 20.29 32.38 24.48
41 3.61% 7.5 7.5 18.53 11.87 28.8 15.94 36.28 26.88
41.5 0% 7.79 3.92 15.58 7.83 27.95 17.59 38.66 26.64
42 1.9% 3.87 3.87 12.03 13.16 19.89 22.1 32.84 32.59
42.5 0% 3.95 8.76 7.9 17.52 16.56 27.38 24.58 35.78
43 4.06% 8.46 8.46 12.88 17.24 16.96 25.33 26.66 32.75
43.5 0% 8.84 7.74 17.67 15.48 22.69 22 26.95 27.65
44 3.62% 7.51 7.51 17.28 13.4 26.36 18.88 31.91 24.78
44.5 0% 7.81 5.27 15.61 10.54 26.56 15.8 36.04 20.56
45 2.52% 5.18 5.18 13.51 10.09 21.44 14.77 33.13 23.19
45.5 0% 5.31 4.55 10.63 9.1 19.65 16.88 27.8 24.01
46 2.19% 4.49 4.49 10.1 11.83 15.48 18.85 25.01 24.68
46.5 0% 4.59 6.86 9.18 13.72 15.19 19.16 20.7 23.95
47 3.24% 6.69 6.69 11.7 11.66 16.39 16.32 22.95 22.99
47.5 0% 6.92 4.5 13.84 9 19.38 15.03 24.24 20.57

Half Point Values for Large NFL Totals

Here is the table for totals between 48 and 60.5…

Total Push Prob 0.5 Pt Down 0.5 Point Up 1 Pt Down 1 Point Up 1.5 Pt Down 1.5 Point Up 2 Pt Down 2 Point Up
48 2.17% 4.44 4.44 11.75 10.13 18.75 15.59 24.59 22.97
48.5 0% 4.54 5.33 9.08 10.65 16.9 17.55 24.07 23.79
49 2.55% 5.23 5.23 10.08 11.67 14.69 17.79 23.05 30.75
49.5 0% 5.37 5.95 10.75 11.91 16 23.85 20.73 34.53
50 2.83% 5.83 5.83 11.62 16.87 17.09 27.3 22.75 36.22
50.5 0% 6.01 10.11 12.01 20.21 18.34 28.35 23.98 35.12
51 4.63% 9.7 9.7 16.55 16.82 22.79 23.3 30 27.33
51.5 0% 10.2 6.16 20.4 12.33 28.32 15.82 34.89 18.92
52 2.93% 6.03 6.03 17.06 9.25 27.47 12.29 36.04 19.4
52.5 0% 6.22 2.94 12.44 5.89 24.54 12.39 35.3 18.52
53 1.44% 2.93 2.93 9.35 9.2 15.59 15.3 28.07 26.3
53.5 0% 2.97 6 5.94 12.01 12.65 22.51 18.99 31.9
54 2.85% 5.88 5.88 9.08 15.58 12.1 24.75 19.34 27.98
54.5 0% 6.06 8.88 12.11 17.77 15.61 20.71 18.72 23.22
55 4.11% 8.58 8.58 15.37 11.2 21.62 13.62 25.55 22.21
55.5 0% 8.96 2.31 17.92 4.63 25.65 12.19 32.21 19.41
56 1.14% 2.31 2.31 11.48 9.67 20.44 16.87 28.33 23.54
56.5 0% 2.33 7.11 4.67 14.22 14.17 20.65 23.24 26.29
57 3.35% 6.92 6.92 9.48 12.78 11.87 18.26 22.28 22.17
57.5 0% 7.17 5.29 14.34 10.57 17.17 14.09 19.65 17.27
58 2.53% 5.19 5.19 12.85 8.48 20.13 11.61 23.16 14.54
58.5 0% 5.33 3.04 10.66 6.09 18.95 8.8 26.44 11.36
59 1.49% 3.02 3.02 8.54 5.64 13.89 8.18 22.45 11.97
59.5 0% 3.07 2.5 6.14 5.01 11.91 8.63 17.35 12.07
60 1.23% 2.49 2.49 5.64 6.01 8.71 9.44 14.63 17.29
60.5 0% 2.52 3.39 5.05 6.78 8.32 14.33 11.43 21.4

Final Thoughts

Our analysis covers roughly fifteen years worth of data which amounts to over four thousand games. It is incredibly important to monitor new trends in the game to be aware of any potential changes to the distributions of scores. Even small changes, like moving the extra point try back to the 25 yard line can have extreme effects on the value of point totals. We are constantly monitoring and will make changes as necessary.