English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chelsea
Leicester City 		54.2%
22.0%		23.7%
-212
+583
-225
+600
1.73
1.01		2.74
o3-111
u3+102
o3-115
u3½-150
Volatility Bet Value Active
Brentford
Everton 		23.7%
51.2%		25.1%
+208
+142
+210
+140
0.99
1.59		2.58
o2½-115
u2½+104
o2½-115
u2½+100
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal 		6.5%
80.1%		13.4%
+790
-252
+785
-260
0.61
2.61		3.22
o2¾+102
u2¾-116
o2½-125
u2½+105
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa 		16.7%
61.5%		21.8%
+415
-141
+430
-145
0.87
1.90		2.77
o2½-127
u2¾-120
o2½-125
u2½+120
Wolverhampton
Fulham 		19.2%
56.8%		24.0%
+488
-170
+465
-180
0.88
1.69		2.57
o3-107
u3-107
o2½-140
u3-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Brighton and Hove Albion
Bournemouth 		43.0%
29.4%		27.6%
+172
+155
+175
+150
1.32
1.04		2.36
o3-110
u3-102
o3-105
u3-105
Tottenham
Manchester City 		10.1%
74.4%		15.5%
+645
-260
+635
-220
0.83
2.55		3.38
o3¾-110
u4-130
o3½-130
u3½+115
All Bet Values Active
Games for Nov 22, 2024
Games for Nov 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester City
Wolverhampton		77.1%
7.9%		15.0%
-281
+775
-293
+800
2
1		-0.33438-0.31670-0.26043
Arsenal
Bournemouth		61.0%
17.2%		21.8%
-131
+425
-125
+375
0
2		-1.67536-1.57103-1.75991
Everton
Ipswich Town		34.1%
37.6%		28.4%
+213
+138
+215
+140
2
0		-1.16607-1.17866-1.07719
Brighton and Hove Albion
Newcastle United		25.8%
48.2%		26.0%
+375
-137
+360
-110
1
0		-1.58445-1.51722-1.35507
Brentford
Manchester United		16.6%
62.1%		21.3%
+390
-144
+345
-140
1
2		-0.55380-0.58143-0.47631
Leicester City
Southampton		31.6%
42.6%		25.8%
+240
+120
+235
+125
3
2		-1.24988-1.24043-1.15144
Aston Villa
Fulham		36.3%
35.6%		28.1%
+190
+150
+180
+150
3
1		-1.09479-1.07555-1.01302
West Ham United
Tottenham		12.3%
70.2%		17.4%
+525
-213
+515
-220
1
4		-0.41029-0.41694-0.35328
Tottenham
Brighton and Hove Albion		36.0%
36.5%		27.5%
+127
+202
+130
+189
2
3		-1.12667-1.09464-1.00860
Nottingham Forest
Chelsea		8.5%
75.3%		16.2%
+535
-195
+525
-200
1
1		-1.57161-1.56921-1.82022
Manchester United
Aston Villa		27.5%
46.9%		25.7%
+218
+120
+210
+115
0
0		-1.38609-1.40801-1.36035
Newcastle United
Everton		40.5%
32.0%		27.5%
+110
+278
+100
+261
0
0		-1.34082-1.37437-1.29178
Bournemouth
Leicester City		32.5%
40.5%		27.0%
+104
+263
+110
+253
0
1		-1.31108-1.28504-0.90419
Fulham
Manchester City		3.8%
87.0%		9.2%
+1050
-360
+1000
-400
2
3		-0.26599-0.26469-0.13938
Wolverhampton
Brentford		25.4%
47.8%		26.8%
+268
+105
+260
+105
3
5		-0.74722-0.76404-0.73890
Ipswich Town
West Ham United		15.5%
63.5%		21.0%
+307
-110
+305
-115
1
4		-0.67221-0.66968-0.45448
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.