English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tottenham
Manchester City 		10.1%
74.4%		15.5%
+655
-265
+675
-220
0.83
2.55		3.38
o3¾-110
u4-130
o3½-135
u3½+120
All Bet Values Active
Games for Nov 22, 2024
Games for Nov 24, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Brentford
Everton 		23.7%
51.2%		25.1%
+212
+138
+210
+140
2.58
o2½-112
u2½+104
o2½-115
u2½+100
1st H
20:48		0
0
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal 		6.5%
80.1%		13.4%
+770
-240
+785
-260
3.22
o2½-114
u2½+102
o2½-115
u2½+105
1st H
21:03		0
1
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa 		16.7%
61.5%		21.8%
+405
-135
+430
-135
2.77
o2½-115
u2½+108
o2½-115
u2½+115
1st H
20:57		1
0
Wolverhampton
Fulham 		19.2%
56.8%		24.0%
+495
-178
+480
-180
2.57
o3-102
u3-111
o3+115
u3-115
1st H
20:55		0
1
Brighton and Hove Albion
Bournemouth 		43.0%
29.4%		27.6%
+185
+147
+178
+147
2.36
o3-109
u3+102
o3-105
u3-105
1st H
20:54		1
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Ipswich Town
West Ham United		15.5%
63.5%		21.0%
+307
-110
+305
-115
1
4		-0.67221-0.66968-0.45448
Southampton
Arsenal		5.0%
84.6%		10.4%
+1675
-519
+1700
-600
1
3		-0.19503-0.18851-0.16741
Liverpool
Crystal Palace		54.6%
21.3%		24.1%
-147
+418
-155
+500
1
0		-0.54492-0.48972-0.60559
Southampton
Bournemouth		19.5%
57.9%		22.5%
+535
-187
+500
-184
1
3		-0.44995-0.46549-0.54602
Tottenham
Manchester United		33.0%
40.8%		26.2%
+233
+135
+215
+115
3
0		-1.18505-1.18885-1.10803
Aston Villa
Ipswich Town		52.6%
22.7%		24.7%
+106
+280
+100
+310
2
2		-1.34669-1.32238-1.39849
Liverpool
Wolverhampton		65.2%
14.4%		20.5%
-306
+805
-329
+825
2
1		-0.31316-0.30359-0.42812
Leicester City
Arsenal		5.3%
84.0%		10.7%
+1520
-484
+1600
-548
2
4		-0.21585-0.20475-0.17469
West Ham United
Brentford		30.6%
42.2%		27.2%
+222
+125
+235
+120
1
1		-1.32531-1.29700-1.30096
Crystal Palace
Everton		35.0%
36.4%		28.7%
+169
+180
+170
+175
1
2		-1.05237-1.04797-1.01104
Fulham
Nottingham Forest		32.2%
39.1%		28.7%
+205
+162
+200
+154
1
0		-1.12316-1.13274-1.13423
Brighton and Hove Albion
Chelsea		18.0%
59.0%		23.0%
+330
-128
+330
-130
2
4		-0.60349-0.60855-0.52709
Manchester City
Newcastle United		65.3%
14.7%		20.0%
-151
+405
-155
+410
1
1		-1.52569-1.51231-1.60989
Arsenal
Manchester City		14.3%
66.3%		19.4%
+420
-124
+415
-127
2
2		-1.32433-1.30372-1.64093
Nottingham Forest
Brighton and Hove Albion		13.0%
66.8%		20.2%
+340
-117
+345
-130
2
2		-1.37389-1.40629-1.59944
Manchester United
Crystal Palace		35.1%
36.2%		28.7%
+145
+190
+145
+190
0
0		-1.32133-1.31126-1.24921
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.41198 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.40623 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.61212
-0.20014
-0.20589

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.