English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Liverpool
Southampton 		73.6%
10.4%		16.0%
-347
+1050
-380
+1025
2.47
0.82		3.29
o3¼-108
u3½-126
o3½+110
u3½-130
Volatility Bet Value Active
Manchester United
Ipswich Town 		55.5%
20.7%		23.8%
-160
+435
-165
+435
1.72
0.95		2.67
o3-115
u3+105
o3-110
u3+100
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Tottenham
Manchester City 		10.1%
74.4%		15.5%
+605
-236
+650
-245
3.38
o3½-117
u3½+106
o3½-115
u3½+115
1st H
43:25		2
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brighton and Hove Albion
Chelsea		18.0%
59.0%		23.0%
+330
-128
+330
-130
2
4		-0.60349-0.60855-0.52709
Manchester City
Newcastle United		65.3%
14.7%		20.0%
-151
+405
-155
+410
1
1		-1.52569-1.51231-1.60989
Arsenal
Manchester City		14.3%
66.3%		19.4%
+420
-124
+415
-127
2
2		-1.32433-1.30372-1.64093
Nottingham Forest
Brighton and Hove Albion		13.0%
66.8%		20.2%
+340
-117
+345
-130
2
2		-1.37389-1.40629-1.59944
Manchester United
Crystal Palace		35.1%
36.2%		28.7%
+145
+190
+145
+190
0
0		-1.32133-1.31126-1.24921
Wolverhampton
Aston Villa		14.0%
65.7%		20.4%
+445
-158
+447
-179
1
3		-0.51326-0.49177-0.42047
Ipswich Town
Southampton		22.1%
54.0%		23.9%
+220
+142
+200
+135
1
1		-1.26415-1.29638-1.43092
Brentford
Tottenham		10.0%
74.1%		15.9%
+550
-195
+520
-200
1
3		-0.42834-0.43303-0.30016
Everton
Leicester City		35.6%
37.3%		27.1%
+263
+135
+282
+150
1
1		-1.24545-1.19885-1.30508
Bournemouth
Liverpool		6.7%
80.3%		13.0%
+975
-345
+970
-380
0
3		-0.27085-0.26529-0.21940
Newcastle United
Fulham		37.3%
34.4%		28.2%
+150
+195
+140
+185
1
3		-1.10304-1.09919-1.06621
Chelsea
West Ham United		45.8%
27.7%		26.4%
+101
+260
+100
+255
3
0		-0.72311-0.73054-0.78062
Newcastle United
Wolverhampton		40.1%
31.3%		28.6%
+102
+269
+100
+260
2
1		-0.73528-0.74360-0.91389
Arsenal
Tottenham		36.6%
36.5%		26.9%
+158
+181
+140
+185
1
0		-0.97262-0.91980-1.00553
Chelsea
Bournemouth		48.5%
25.3%		26.2%
+123
+208
+120
+213
1
0		-0.83432-0.82166-0.72443
Everton
Aston Villa		17.7%
60.8%		21.6%
+440
-145
+440
-145
2
3		-0.55426-0.55741-0.49832
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks62-2-2 (0.500)0-1.05421 
Sportsbooks62-2-2 (0.500)0-1.04487 
DRatings63-1-2 (0.667)0-1.03904
0.01517
0.00583

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.