English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Liverpool
Southampton 		73.6%
10.4%		16.0%
-351
+1050
-380
+1025
2.47
0.82		3.29
o3¼-108
u3½-126
o3½+110
u3½-130
Volatility Bet Value Active
Manchester United
Ipswich Town 		55.5%
20.7%		23.8%
-162
+450
-165
+435
1.72
0.95		2.67
o3-115
u3+105
o3-110
u3+100
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Everton
Aston Villa		17.7%
60.8%		21.6%
+440
-145
+440
-145
2
3		-0.55426-0.55741-0.49832
Leicester City
Crystal Palace		17.0%
61.5%		21.5%
+440
-148
+441
-160
2
2		-1.41964-1.44477-1.53656
Ipswich Town
Brighton and Hove Albion		10.8%
71.3%		17.9%
+550
-203
+560
-210
0
0		-1.60028-1.60525-1.71864
Brentford
Manchester City		3.6%
87.7%		8.7%
+1350
-460
+1300
-576
1
2		-0.22000-0.20383-0.13117
West Ham United
Fulham		28.5%
45.0%		26.5%
+226
+135
+214
+135
1
1		-1.24981-1.27165-1.32772
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool		5.1%
83.3%		11.6%
+1225
-403
+1125
-450
1
0		-2.60045-2.54938-2.97123
Manchester United
Southampton		49.3%
26.1%		24.6%
-122
+320
-125
+340
3
0		-0.62972-0.62008-0.70739
Liverpool
Manchester United		46.0%
28.1%		25.8%
-106
+265
-110
+260
3
0		-0.69635-0.69111-0.77618
Crystal Palace
Chelsea		13.9%
65.3%		20.7%
+415
-152
+400
-160
1
1		-1.50593-1.50544-1.57330
Tottenham
Newcastle United		35.7%
37.1%		27.2%
+165
+152
+165
+145
1
2		-0.94814-0.93718-0.99212
Manchester City
West Ham United		74.1%
9.9%		16.1%
-238
+655
-259
+640
3
1		-0.37233-0.37077-0.30040
Fulham
Ipswich Town		36.6%
34.7%		28.7%
+140
+210
+135
+205
1
1		-1.27125-1.27654-1.24991
Bournemouth
Everton		23.6%
51.4%		25.0%
+144
+207
+145
+196
3
2		-0.91629-0.93052-1.44274
Southampton
Brentford		22.7%
53.2%		24.1%
+352
-124
+345
-130
1
3		-0.62211-0.61902-0.63066
Wolverhampton
Nottingham Forest		29.2%
41.8%		29.1%
+289
+101
+269
+105
1
1		-1.33090-1.30663-1.23539
Aston Villa
Leicester City		48.2%
27.0%		24.9%
-105
+308
-115
+350
2
1		-0.68794-0.64577-0.73085
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks72-3-2 (0.429)0-1.18652 
Sportsbooks72-3-2 (0.429)0-1.18702 
DRatings73-2-2 (0.571)0-1.21848
-0.03196
-0.03146

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.