France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Marseille
Lens 		29.5%
43.8%		26.7%
+252
+119
+215
+125
1.09
1.39		2.48
o2½-132
u2¾-117
o2½-135
u2½+115
Montpellier
Saint-Etienne 		30.9%
43.1%		25.9%
+210
+138
+205
+130
1.18
1.45		2.63
o2½-131
u2¾-117
o2½-140
u2½+120
Lyon
Reims 		43.0%
30.1%		26.9%
+128
+204
+130
+190
1.37
1.10		2.47
o3-107
u3+101
o3-105
u3-115
Games for Nov 22, 2024
Games for Nov 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nice
Brest		32.4%
39.7%		27.9%
+178
+200
+165
+195
1
0		-1.02798-1.02304-1.12720
Lens
Paris Saint-Germain		8.7%
76.3%		15.0%
+712
-245
+700
-275
0
1		-0.36333-0.35956-0.27071
Lyon
Lille		20.8%
56.0%		23.2%
+214
+125
+210
+120
1
1		-1.36074-1.34458-1.46128
Angers
Monaco		8.0%
78.3%		13.8%
+1075
-400
+1100
-475
1
0		-2.49241-2.53591-2.52961
Paris Saint-Germain
Marseille		52.0%
23.6%		24.4%
-120
+320
-125
+310
3
0		-0.64097-0.63605-0.65427
Monaco
Nice		36.1%
36.2%		27.7%
-104
+308
+105
+260
1
2		-1.42745-1.33094-1.01561
Toulouse
Montpellier		29.6%
44.7%		25.7%
+116
+235
+110
+235
3
0		-0.79786-0.78946-1.21821
Nantes
Strasbourg		26.3%
47.6%		26.1%
+310
-104
+310
-110
1
3		-0.70473-0.69485-0.74265
Auxerre
Lyon		10.1%
74.1%		15.8%
+565
-220
+525
-220
2
2		-1.67836-1.63954-1.84307
Lille
Lens		32.3%
39.7%		28.0%
+285
+114
+250
+115
2
0		-1.36900-1.30092-1.12973
Brest
Reims		30.9%
41.3%		27.9%
+360
-115
+340
-105
2
1		-1.55566-1.51054-1.17561
Saint-Etienne
Angers		31.4%
41.9%		26.6%
+235
+129
+230
+125
2
4		-0.84924-0.86022-0.86879
Le Havre
Rennes		14.8%
63.6%		21.6%
+579
-189
+700
-230
0
1		-0.45793-0.40908-0.45223
Marseille
Montpellier		43.3%
30.5%		26.2%
-136
+395
-135
+335
5
0		-0.56743-0.60431-0.83676
Reims
Auxerre		32.5%
39.1%		28.4%
+127
+229
+125
+220
1
2		-1.22064-1.21295-0.93946
Angers
Toulouse		15.7%
63.7%		20.5%
+680
-192
+650
-205
1
1		-1.49455-1.45917-1.58377
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.42587 
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.40877 
DRatings22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.28536
0.14052
0.12342

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.