France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Marseille
Lens 		29.5%
43.8%		26.7%
+252
+119
+215
+125
1.09
1.39		2.48
o2½-141
u2¾-111
o2½-135
u2½+115
Montpellier
Saint-Etienne 		30.9%
43.1%		25.9%
+210
+138
+205
+130
1.18
1.45		2.63
o2½-134
u2¾-112
o2½-140
u2½+120
Lyon
Reims 		43.0%
30.1%		26.9%
+128
+204
+130
+190
1.37
1.10		2.47
o3-107
u3+101
o3-105
u3-115
Games for Nov 22, 2024
Games for Nov 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nice
Nantes		31.6%
39.9%		28.5%
+170
+194
+170
+200
1
1		-1.19670-1.14624-1.25635
Lyon
Le Havre		45.8%
27.3%		26.9%
-134
+400
-105
+285
4
0		-0.57987-0.71756-0.78089
Strasbourg
Paris Saint-Germain		5.5%
83.0%		11.5%
+930
-350
+850
-365
2
4		-0.28559-0.29113-0.18682
Lens
Saint-Etienne		44.6%
29.3%		26.0%
-175
+525
-185
+500
2
0		-0.47535-0.48196-0.80661
Rennes
Brest		33.0%
40.0%		27.1%
+182
+170
+180
+170
1
1		-1.22156-1.18026-1.30730
Lille
Monaco		27.0%
47.7%		25.3%
+258
+112
+295
-110
0
0		-1.33930-1.34442-1.37417
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice		60.3%
17.5%		22.2%
-167
+470
-165
+440
1
1		-1.48793-1.46145-1.50593
Montpellier
Reims		29.3%
43.6%		27.0%
+425
-149
+385
-150
2
4		-0.53471-0.55970-0.82963
Lens
Strasbourg		36.2%
35.6%		28.1%
+168
+173
+165
+175
2
2		-1.25678-1.22622-1.26830
Le Havre
Brest		19.5%
56.2%		24.3%
+365
-118
+360
-120
0
2		-0.64735-0.65356-0.57640
Nantes
Lyon		17.6%
61.1%		21.3%
+431
-144
+370
-135
0
2		-0.54950-0.60347-0.49290
Monaco
Rennes		36.2%
36.8%		26.9%
+154
+186
+145
+180
2
1		-0.96482-0.94585-1.01600
Toulouse
Lille		14.0%
66.1%		19.9%
+387
-120
+330
-120
1
2		-0.61797-0.64986-0.41396
Auxerre
Saint-Etienne		21.3%
55.6%		23.1%
+141
+212
+135
+205
1
3		-1.15878-1.16575-0.58749
Angers
Marseille		9.0%
75.4%		15.5%
+1000
-350
+1000
-400
1
1		-1.86085-1.88902-1.86233
Marseille
Strasbourg		37.4%
34.7%		27.8%
+118
+245
+115
+220
0
1		-1.24008-1.21345-1.12865
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.42587 
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.40877 
DRatings22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.28536
0.14052
0.12342

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.