France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Marseille
Lens 		29.5%
43.8%		26.7%
+235
+125
+230
+115
1.09
1.39		2.48
o2½-136
u2¾-112
o2½-135
u2½+115
Montpellier
Saint-Etienne 		30.9%
43.1%		25.9%
+232
+134
+210
+130
1.18
1.45		2.63
o2½+100
u2½-110
o2½-135
u2½+115
Lyon
Reims 		43.0%
30.1%		26.9%
+130
+204
+125
+195
1.37
1.10		2.47
o3-107
u3+101
o3-115
u3-105
Games for Nov 22, 2024
Games for Nov 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Saint-Etienne
Nantes		20.4%
56.5%		23.1%
+406
-130
+370
-130
2
2		-1.37038-1.35545-1.46586
Reims
Angers		32.0%
39.6%		28.4%
+120
+280
+115
+260
3
1		-0.80898-0.81482-1.13922
Lyon
Toulouse		37.7%
35.4%		26.9%
+200
+145
+190
+140
2
1		-1.12233-1.11480-1.02745
Montpellier
Monaco		13.8%
68.1%		18.1%
+902
-280
+1025
-385
1
2		-0.29347-0.25614-0.34862
Lille
Le Havre		52.0%
21.6%		26.3%
-109
+350
-115
+335
3
0		-0.65788-0.67495-0.65298
Nice
Lens		22.5%
52.6%		24.9%
+342
+100
+310
-105
0
0		-1.26468-1.27279-1.39155
Rennes
Paris Saint-Germain		7.3%
79.3%		13.4%
+615
-230
+675
-270
1
3		-0.39527-0.36489-0.23205
Brest
Auxerre		38.4%
34.1%		27.5%
+147
+205
+155
+180
0
3		-1.13747-1.08063-1.07561
Marseille
Lyon		23.3%
53.0%		23.7%
+142
+187
+135
+185
3
2		-0.90827-0.90357-1.45740
Toulouse
Brest		26.2%
48.5%		25.3%
+195
+180
+190
+160
0
2		-1.01550-0.99196-0.72352
Auxerre
Montpellier		15.9%
63.9%		20.2%
+254
+125
+235
+115
2
3		-0.81184-0.81362-0.44827
Nantes
Angers		38.0%
33.8%		28.1%
+142
+224
+145
+205
1
1		-1.21848-1.21053-1.26862
Le Havre
Monaco		10.7%
71.7%		17.6%
+750
-230
+675
-250
1
3		-0.36083-0.38682-0.33313
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims		71.7%
10.6%		17.7%
-255
+695
-250
+650
1
1		-1.68913-1.63969-1.73398
Lens
Rennes		32.4%
40.4%		27.2%
+208
+140
+200
+140
1
1		-1.26908-1.25632-1.30067
Strasbourg
Lille		16.1%
62.4%		21.5%
+495
-173
+475
-170
3
3		-1.49598-1.47587-1.53795
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.42587 
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.40877 
DRatings22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.28536
0.14052
0.12342

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.