France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lyon
Reims 		43.0%
30.1%		26.9%
+130
+204
+125
+195
1.37
1.10		2.47
o3-110
u3+101
o3-115
u3-105
Games for Nov 22, 2024
Games for Nov 24, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Montpellier
Saint-Etienne 		30.9%
43.1%		25.9%
+213
+140
+225
+130
2.63
o2½-117
u2½+103
o2½-115
u2½-105
1st H
22:00		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Strasbourg
Lille		16.1%
62.4%		21.5%
+495
-173
+475
-170
3
3		-1.49598-1.47587-1.53795
Saint-Etienne
Nice		17.6%
60.6%		21.8%
+615
-197
+540
-190
0
8		-0.43088-0.47392-0.50121
Lyon
Lens		25.9%
49.3%		24.7%
+335
-121
+330
-125
0
0		-1.43209-1.38502-1.39857
Le Havre
Toulouse		19.6%
55.9%		24.5%
+345
-109
+335
-115
0
2		-0.67855-0.67113-0.58111
Reims
Nantes		21.2%
53.7%		25.1%
+217
+145
+200
+145
2
1		-1.18003-1.14219-1.54938
Angers
Strasbourg		14.9%
64.9%		20.2%
+465
-152
+450
-150
1
1		-1.43477-1.36908-1.60058
Montpellier
Rennes		21.0%
56.2%		22.8%
+600
-220
+535
-210
0
3		-0.39711-0.44043-0.57593
Brest
Paris Saint-Germain		5.4%
83.4%		11.2%
+950
-350
+900
-350
1
3		-0.28631-0.30028-0.18169
Monaco
Auxerre		56.3%
21.0%		22.6%
-123
+345
-120
+305
3
0		-0.62094-0.65693-0.57385
Nice
Marseille		21.7%
53.7%		24.6%
+345
-111
+330
-120
0
2		-0.66678-0.65329-0.62228
Lille
Saint-Etienne		50.2%
24.8%		25.0%
-140
+445
-135
+400
0
1		-1.72513-1.66036-1.39376
Paris Saint-Germain
Lille		49.9%
24.7%		25.4%
-128
+355
-130
+325
3
1		-0.61109-0.61982-0.69499
Auxerre
Le Havre		22.4%
51.6%		26.0%
+167
+184
+165
+180
1
3		-1.06866-1.07555-0.66101
Rennes
Reims		37.5%
33.6%		28.9%
+130
+230
+125
+220
1
2		-1.21325-1.21295-1.09070
Nice
Angers		39.5%
32.7%		27.8%
-105
+360
-105
+325
4
1		-0.69247-0.71832-0.92953
Lens
Monaco		25.6%
50.0%		24.4%
+300
+104
+285
-125
1
1		-1.37642-1.43025-1.40952
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.78228 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.77884 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.70706
0.07522
0.07178

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.