France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rennes
Lille 		17.6%
60.4%		22.1%
+340
-110
+325
-115
0.90
1.88		2.78
o2½-110
u2½+101
o2½-115
u2½-105
Angers
Auxerre 		26.7%
47.5%		25.8%
+368
-124
+360
-130
1.07
1.50		2.57
o2¾-102
u2¾-112
o2½-130
u2½+110
Le Havre
Nantes 		19.1%
56.0%		24.9%
+408
-113
+400
-120
0.82
1.61		2.43
o2-136
u2¼-122
o2-135
u2+115
Strasbourg
Nice 		20.8%
55.0%		24.2%
+358
-123
+345
-130
0.93
1.68		2.61
o2½-130
u2¾-118
o2½-130
u2½+110
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Lyon
Reims 		43.0%
30.1%		26.9%
+122
+225
+125
+195
2.47
o3-110
u3+104
o3-115
u3-105
TIME
HALF		1
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lens
Monaco		25.6%
50.0%		24.4%
+300
+104
+285
-125
1
1		-1.37642-1.43025-1.40952
Marseille
Toulouse		35.4%
36.9%		27.7%
+129
+220
+120
+225
3
1		-0.84781-0.83924-1.03755
Nantes
Montpellier		26.1%
48.5%		25.3%
+220
+131
+220
+130
3
1		-1.18607-1.21224-1.34228
Saint-Etienne
Brest		20.8%
56.4%		22.8%
+380
-130
+375
-135
0
4		-0.60006-0.60468-0.57238
Strasbourg
Lyon		18.0%
60.6%		21.4%
+258
+111
+290
+100
3
4		-0.76996-0.73054-0.50033
Reims
Marseille		15.0%
63.5%		21.5%
+810
-281
+800
-300
2
2		-1.74847-1.70854-1.53600
Auxerre
Nantes		16.1%
62.4%		21.4%
+187
+161
+205
+150
0
2		-0.98473-0.94233-0.47109
Rennes
Strasbourg		30.1%
43.2%		26.8%
+134
+234
+125
+235
1
3		-1.23093-1.25390-0.84012
Toulouse
Nice		24.6%
50.4%		25.0%
+295
+114
+275
+110
1
1		-1.20641-1.23881-1.38733
Brest
Lens		15.6%
64.1%		20.3%
+365
-114
+345
-120
0
2		-0.65500-0.65670-0.44535
Le Havre
Saint-Etienne		24.6%
48.9%		26.5%
+306
+105
+320
-110
2
0		-1.42899-1.48554-1.40165
Angers
Lille		8.6%
75.9%		15.5%
+920
-280
+860
-300
0
2		-0.33966-0.33670-0.27627
Monaco
Lyon		28.0%
47.4%		24.6%
+148
+177
+145
+170
2
0		-0.93194-0.94727-1.27332
Montpellier
Paris Saint-Germain		5.5%
83.4%		11.0%
+1165
-450
+1025
-480
0
6		-0.23523-0.24689-0.18119
Lyon
Rennes		32.1%
41.3%		26.6%
+215
+134
+210
+130
0
3		-0.87630-0.88312-0.88438
Nantes
Toulouse		26.9%
47.3%		25.8%
+290
+112
+290
+105
0
0		-1.24573-1.22926-1.35476
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.05546 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.04706 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.03150
0.02395
0.01556

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.