France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rennes
Lille 		17.6%
60.4%		22.1%
+340
-112
+325
-115
0.90
1.88		2.78
o2½-110
u2½+101
o2½-115
u2½-105
Angers
Auxerre 		26.7%
47.5%		25.8%
+368
-124
+360
-130
1.07
1.50		2.57
o2¾-102
u2¾-112
o2½-130
u2½+110
Le Havre
Nantes 		19.1%
56.0%		24.9%
+408
-113
+400
-120
0.82
1.61		2.43
o2-136
u2¼-122
o2-135
u2+115
Strasbourg
Nice 		20.8%
55.0%		24.2%
+358
-123
+345
-130
0.93
1.68		2.61
o2½-130
u2¾-118
o2½-130
u2½+110
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nantes
Toulouse		26.9%
47.3%		25.8%
+290
+112
+290
+105
0
0		-1.24573-1.22926-1.35476
Lens
Angers		53.8%
22.2%		24.0%
-175
+585
-180
+535
1
0		-0.48383-0.49094-0.61990
Strasbourg
Montpellier		28.4%
45.9%		25.6%
+262
+113
+260
+110
1
1		-1.29397-1.27072-1.36141
Nice
Auxerre		40.0%
32.2%		27.8%
+150
+205
+155
+185
1
2		-1.14379-1.09679-1.13302
Saint-Etienne
Monaco		11.2%
72.4%		16.4%
+715
-276
+750
-300
0
1		-0.34389-0.33596-0.32318
Lille
Reims		47.3%
25.5%		27.2%
+158
+191
+155
+180
2
0		-0.97795-0.98709-0.74942
Marseille
Brest		35.2%
37.0%		27.8%
+140
+221
+130
+220
5
1		-0.90622-0.88201-1.04361
Paris Saint-Germain
Le Havre		73.2%
9.5%		17.3%
-228
+670
-245
+650
4
1		-0.39193-0.39076-0.31215
Nice
Lille		15.4%
63.3%		21.4%
+561
-195
+545
-200
2
2		-1.57233-1.52047-1.54253
Strasbourg
Lyon		18.6%
59.9%		21.6%
+798
-290
+650
-275
1
2		-0.32183-0.36071-0.51294
Nantes
Monaco		17.0%
61.9%		21.1%
+431
-180
+535
-200
0
4		-0.47253-0.42179-0.48023
Rennes
Reims		35.0%
35.7%		29.3%
+135
+210
+130
+200
1
2		-1.14961-1.14721-1.03139
Paris Saint-Germain
Metz		80.0%
6.6%		13.3%
-130
+355
-140
+395
2
0		-0.60493-0.56784-0.22318
Brest
Toulouse		31.6%
42.0%		26.4%
+133
+200
+125
+245
3
0		-0.87465-0.82679-1.15280
Marseille
Le Havre		59.8%
16.9%		23.3%
-131
+360
-135
+340
2
1		-0.60113-0.60475-0.51483
Montpellier
Lens		22.2%
54.5%		23.3%
+800
-298
+700
-315
2
2		-1.84548-1.83421-1.45835
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.15566 
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.15491 
DRatings31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.12557
0.03009
0.02934

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.