German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Freiburg
Dortmund 		21.6%
56.7%		21.7%
+340
-127
+330
-130
1.14
1.98		3.12
o3+100
u3-117
o3+105
u3-115
RB Leipzig
Hoffenheim 		50.3%
26.4%		23.3%
+119
+224
+113
+225
1.77
1.23		3.00
o3-112
u3+106
o3-120
u3+100
VfL Bochum
VfB Stuttgart 		10.1%
75.0%		14.9%
+850
-335
+800
-355
0.89
2.67		3.56
o3½-108
u3½-103
o3½-105
u3½+100
Union Berlin
Wolfsburg 		28.4%
46.1%		25.5%
+223
+141
+210
+140
1.13
1.52		2.65
o2¼-114
u2½-131
o2½+115
u2½-135
Volatility Bet Value Active
FC Heidenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 		4.9%
85.3%		9.8%
+1350
-500
+1400
-560
0.69
3.18		3.87
o3¼-115
u3¼-104
o3½+110
u3½-125
Werder Bremen
Eintracht Frankfurt 		16.9%
64.1%		19.0%
+345
-130
+340
-135
1.09
2.28		3.37
o3-122
u3+114
o3-125
u3½-145
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 22, 2024
Games for Nov 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
VfL Bochum
Hoffenheim		22.2%
56.1%		21.7%
+460
-185
+470
-180
1
3		-0.45194-0.46194-0.57778
FC Heidenheim
Borussia Monchengladbach		20.8%
57.6%		21.6%
+298
-107
+305
-115
2
3		-0.68417-0.66641-0.55121
RB Leipzig
Mainz 05		49.7%
26.4%		23.9%
-113
+315
-115
+300
2
0		-0.65516-0.66680-0.69945
Augsburg
Freiburg		22.7%
54.5%		22.8%
+450
-150
+450
-155
1
3		-0.53055-0.53375-0.60629
FC St. Pauli
Dortmund		9.0%
77.5%		13.5%
+1000
-345
+960
-350
1
2		-0.29015-0.28936-0.25532
Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart		12.5%
71.2%		16.3%
+683
-285
+675
-310
1
1		-1.86291-1.86717-1.81345
Bayern Munich
Eintracht Frankfurt		55.2%
22.9%		21.8%
-180
+475
-190
+480
3
3		-1.62608-1.60390-1.52202
RB Leipzig
FC Heidenheim		58.6%
19.7%		21.7%
-142
+397
-150
+366
1
0		-0.55886-0.55951-0.53462
Mainz 05
FC St. Pauli		39.2%
35.1%		25.7%
+260
+120
+236
+115
3
0		-1.29880-1.25924-0.93698
Dortmund
Union Berlin		32.6%
41.8%		25.6%
+103
+280
+105
+271
1
2		-1.36070-1.35085-0.87225
Wolfsburg
VfL Bochum		33.0%
41.1%		25.9%
+125
+212
+125
+205
3
1		-0.83866-0.85264-1.10860
Freiburg
Werder Bremen		22.9%
54.4%		22.7%
+161
+172
+158
+170
1
0		-0.98752-0.98669-1.47421
Holstein Kiel
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		4.2%
87.6%		8.3%
+2248
-910
+2700
-1400
2
2		-2.51146-2.60993-2.49447
Borussia Monchengladbach
Augsburg		31.4%
43.8%		24.7%
+184
+147
+185
+138
1
2		-0.92758-0.90412-0.82456
Werder Bremen
Hoffenheim		29.5%
46.6%		23.9%
+210
+140
+185
+135
4
3		-1.12704-1.09646-1.22241
Eintracht Frankfurt
Holstein Kiel		50.3%
26.8%		22.8%
-104
+320
-108
+275
4
2		-0.65400-0.70003-0.68701
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.14968 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.14302 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.16832
-0.01864
-0.02530

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (8-0-2, 26 pts)21.64.67.772.681.5%99.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2RB Leipzig (6-1-3, 21 pts)17.07.49.560.76.7%76.4%17.7%0.0%0.0%
3Eintracht Frankfurt (6-2-2, 20 pts)15.69.88.755.41.2%45.6%28.7%0.1%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4-1-5, 17 pts)17.26.010.962.49.2%86.4%9.9%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (5-3-2, 17 pts)14.410.88.852.00.3%21.0%29.8%0.1%0.1%
6Union Berlin (4-2-4, 16 pts)12.510.710.848.20.0%8.8%19.4%0.5%0.2%
7Dortmund (5-4-1, 16 pts)15.311.27.653.40.7%30.8%28.4%0.0%0.0%
8Werder Bremen (4-3-3, 15 pts)11.612.59.944.70.0%3.3%8.8%1.9%1.5%
9Borussia Monchengladbach (4-4-2, 14 pts)12.213.08.745.40.0%4.9%10.8%1.8%0.7%
10Mainz 05 (3-3-4, 13 pts)10.812.510.743.10.0%2.2%7.7%3.8%1.8%
11VfB Stuttgart (3-3-4, 13 pts)13.510.110.550.90.4%18.6%27.6%0.1%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.913.39.942.50.0%1.5%6.6%4.2%1.9%
13Augsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.414.09.740.80.0%0.5%2.2%6.2%3.4%
14FC Heidenheim (3-6-1, 10 pts)9.217.47.435.00.0%0.0%0.4%18.4%19.4%
15Hoffenheim (2-5-3, 9 pts)9.414.99.738.00.0%0.2%1.8%10.1%9.2%
16FC St. Pauli (2-6-2, 8 pts)8.117.58.432.60.0%0.0%0.0%22.1%32.1%
17Holstein Kiel (1-7-2, 5 pts)6.619.08.428.20.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%65.8%
18VfL Bochum (0-8-2, 2 pts)6.818.58.729.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.7%63.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.