German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Werder Bremen
Eintracht Frankfurt 		16.9%
64.1%		19.0%
+345
-130
+330
-135
1.09
2.28		3.37
o3-120
u3+114
o3-130
u3½-150
Games for Nov 22, 2024
Games for Nov 24, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Freiburg
Dortmund 		21.6%
56.7%		21.7%
+343
-118
+337
-125
3.12
o2¾-110
u2¾-107
o3+120
u3-130
1st H
39:00		0
1
RB Leipzig
Hoffenheim 		50.3%
26.4%		23.3%
+123
+227
+113
+225
3.00
o3-114
u3+105
o3-105
u3+100
1st H
40:00		2
1
VfL Bochum
VfB Stuttgart 		10.1%
75.0%		14.9%
+825
-305
+800
-330
3.56
o3½-105
u3½-106
o3½+100
u3½-105
1st H
40:00		0
0
Union Berlin
Wolfsburg 		28.4%
46.1%		25.5%
+285
+115
+286
+115
2.65
o2¼-114
u2½-131
o2½+115
u2½-135
1st H
40:00		0
0
FC Heidenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 		4.9%
85.3%		9.8%
+1300
-460
+1400
-515
3.87
o3¼-107
u3¼-110
o3½+110
u3½-130
1st H
40:00		2
2

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayern Munich		19.9%
59.1%		20.9%
+385
-140
+375
-158
1
1		-1.53127-1.54825-1.56499
FC Heidenheim
Mainz 05		19.8%
58.4%		21.8%
+350
-115
+340
-105
2
0		-1.51750-1.50099-1.61838
Augsburg
RB Leipzig		10.2%
74.7%		15.1%
+550
-193
+507
-210
0
4		-0.41523-0.43872-0.29189
Union Berlin
Borussia Monchengladbach		31.0%
43.9%		25.2%
+245
+120
+245
+115
0
1		-0.81040-0.80932-0.82378
VfB Stuttgart
Wolfsburg		44.3%
30.5%		25.2%
+110
+256
+110
+230
2
2		-1.38394-1.38047-1.37920
FC St. Pauli
Freiburg		20.2%
58.4%		21.4%
+530
-165
+502
-175
3
0		-1.85982-1.84042-1.59865
VfL Bochum
Dortmund		10.7%
74.2%		15.1%
+1300
-449
+1200
-500
2
4		-0.20798-0.22166-0.29851
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli		64.6%
16.3%		19.1%
-150
+429
-148
+400
0
0		-1.46369-1.43200-1.65459
Dortmund
VfB Stuttgart		30.8%
44.9%		24.2%
+200
+131
+185
+135
1
5		-0.86289-0.89592-0.79973
Wolfsburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		9.0%
76.8%		14.2%
+960
-338
+950
-385
3
4		-0.27325-0.27662-0.26415
Borussia Monchengladbach
Eintracht Frankfurt		15.0%
67.4%		17.7%
+340
-130
+315
-130
0
2		-0.59528-0.61828-0.39522
Holstein Kiel
VfL Bochum		25.4%
51.7%		22.9%
+336
-105
+320
-125
2
2		-1.36845-1.40985-1.47281
Hoffenheim
Union Berlin		21.3%
56.6%		22.1%
+328
-117
+325
-120
1
2		-0.64027-0.65589-0.56833
Freiburg
FC Heidenheim		32.4%
41.2%		26.4%
+145
+227
+125
+215
3
0		-0.89174-0.86140-1.12575
Bayern Munich
Werder Bremen		72.6%
11.6%		15.8%
-315
+840
-320
+800
5
0		-0.29957-0.31301-0.32054
Mainz 05
Augsburg		32.7%
41.7%		25.6%
+204
+140
+191
+140
3
2		-1.13878-1.11085-1.11804
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.14968 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.14302 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.16832
-0.01864
-0.02530

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (8-0-2, 26 pts)21.64.67.772.681.5%99.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2RB Leipzig (6-1-3, 21 pts)17.07.49.560.76.7%76.4%17.7%0.0%0.0%
3Eintracht Frankfurt (6-2-2, 20 pts)15.69.88.755.41.2%45.6%28.7%0.1%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4-1-5, 17 pts)17.26.010.962.49.2%86.4%9.9%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (5-3-2, 17 pts)14.410.88.852.00.3%21.0%29.8%0.1%0.1%
6Union Berlin (4-2-4, 16 pts)12.510.710.848.20.0%8.8%19.4%0.5%0.2%
7Dortmund (5-4-1, 16 pts)15.311.27.653.40.7%30.8%28.4%0.0%0.0%
8Werder Bremen (4-3-3, 15 pts)11.612.59.944.70.0%3.3%8.8%1.9%1.5%
9Borussia Monchengladbach (4-4-2, 14 pts)12.213.08.745.40.0%4.9%10.8%1.8%0.7%
10Mainz 05 (3-3-4, 13 pts)10.812.510.743.10.0%2.2%7.7%3.8%1.8%
11VfB Stuttgart (3-3-4, 13 pts)13.510.110.550.90.4%18.6%27.6%0.1%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.913.39.942.50.0%1.5%6.6%4.2%1.9%
13Augsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.414.09.740.80.0%0.5%2.2%6.2%3.4%
14FC Heidenheim (3-6-1, 10 pts)9.217.47.435.00.0%0.0%0.4%18.4%19.4%
15Hoffenheim (2-5-3, 9 pts)9.414.99.738.00.0%0.2%1.8%10.1%9.2%
16FC St. Pauli (2-6-2, 8 pts)8.117.58.432.60.0%0.0%0.0%22.1%32.1%
17Holstein Kiel (1-7-2, 5 pts)6.619.08.428.20.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%65.8%
18VfL Bochum (0-8-2, 2 pts)6.818.58.729.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.7%63.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.