German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Mainz 05
Holstein Kiel 		43.6%
31.7%		24.7%
+130
+218
+125
+215
1.57
1.30		2.87
o2¾-104
u2¾-112
o2½-130
u2½+115
FC St. Pauli
Borussia Monchengladbach 		14.6%
67.8%		17.6%
+353
-125
+350
-125
1.05
2.44		3.49
o2¾+101
u2¾-117
o2½-125
u2½+110
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Werder Bremen
Eintracht Frankfurt 		16.9%
64.1%		19.0%
+360
-130
+330
-135
3.37
o3¼+103
u3+118
o3-130
u3½-150
1st H
13:00		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Holstein Kiel
VfL Bochum		25.4%
51.7%		22.9%
+336
-105
+320
-125
2
2		-1.36845-1.40985-1.47281
Hoffenheim
Union Berlin		21.3%
56.6%		22.1%
+328
-117
+325
-120
1
2		-0.64027-0.65589-0.56833
Freiburg
FC Heidenheim		32.4%
41.2%		26.4%
+145
+227
+125
+215
3
0		-0.89174-0.86140-1.12575
Bayern Munich
Werder Bremen		72.6%
11.6%		15.8%
-315
+840
-320
+800
5
0		-0.29957-0.31301-0.32054
Mainz 05
Augsburg		32.7%
41.7%		25.6%
+204
+140
+191
+140
3
2		-1.13878-1.11085-1.11804
Werder Bremen
Mainz 05		19.6%
59.5%		20.8%
+237
+121
+240
+113
2
1		-1.23784-1.26805-1.62837
FC St. Pauli
Augsburg		18.1%
61.8%		20.2%
+290
+110
+277
+108
1
3		-0.77001-0.75215-0.48167
Bayern Munich
Holstein Kiel		78.0%
8.7%		13.2%
-465
+1225
-510
+1175
6
1		-0.21799-0.22166-0.24803
VfL Bochum
Freiburg		23.3%
53.7%		23.0%
+475
-165
+455
-165
1
2		-0.48763-0.51173-0.62152
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Hoffenheim		55.0%
23.0%		22.0%
-225
+573
-225
+550
4
1		-0.38700-0.40197-0.59766
Eintracht Frankfurt
Wolfsburg		35.4%
38.8%		25.8%
+166
+179
+160
+176
2
1		-0.99039-0.98763-1.03832
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig		15.4%
65.0%		19.6%
+565
-207
+590
-225
0
0		-1.60107-1.62146-1.62995
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Monchengladbach		42.4%
32.8%		24.8%
+145
+174
+135
+175
3
1		-0.92521-0.89774-0.85840
FC Heidenheim
Dortmund		9.5%
76.0%		14.4%
+770
-285
+755
-280
2
4		-0.32945-0.33272-0.27413
Freiburg
Bayern Munich		4.5%
86.2%		9.2%
+1400
-500
+1190
-550
0
2		-0.20404-0.21311-0.14836
Augsburg
FC Heidenheim		35.3%
38.1%		26.6%
+200
+145
+185
+144
0
4		-0.91902-0.93736-0.96556
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks65-1-0 (0.833)0-0.55360 
Sportsbooks65-1-0 (0.833)0-0.54817 
DRatings65-1-0 (0.833)0-0.54815
0.00545
0.00002

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (8-0-2, 26 pts)21.64.67.772.681.5%99.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2RB Leipzig (6-1-3, 21 pts)17.07.49.560.76.7%76.4%17.7%0.0%0.0%
3Eintracht Frankfurt (6-2-2, 20 pts)15.69.88.755.41.2%45.6%28.7%0.1%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4-1-5, 17 pts)17.26.010.962.49.2%86.4%9.9%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (5-3-2, 17 pts)14.410.88.852.00.3%21.0%29.8%0.1%0.1%
6Union Berlin (4-2-4, 16 pts)12.510.710.848.20.0%8.8%19.4%0.5%0.2%
7Dortmund (5-4-1, 16 pts)15.311.27.653.40.7%30.8%28.4%0.0%0.0%
8Werder Bremen (4-3-3, 15 pts)11.612.59.944.70.0%3.3%8.8%1.9%1.5%
9Borussia Monchengladbach (4-4-2, 14 pts)12.213.08.745.40.0%4.9%10.8%1.8%0.7%
10Mainz 05 (3-3-4, 13 pts)10.812.510.743.10.0%2.2%7.7%3.8%1.8%
11VfB Stuttgart (3-3-4, 13 pts)13.510.110.550.90.4%18.6%27.6%0.1%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.913.39.942.50.0%1.5%6.6%4.2%1.9%
13Augsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.414.09.740.80.0%0.5%2.2%6.2%3.4%
14FC Heidenheim (3-6-1, 10 pts)9.217.47.435.00.0%0.0%0.4%18.4%19.4%
15Hoffenheim (2-5-3, 9 pts)9.414.99.738.00.0%0.2%1.8%10.1%9.2%
16FC St. Pauli (2-6-2, 8 pts)8.117.58.432.60.0%0.0%0.0%22.1%32.1%
17Holstein Kiel (1-7-2, 5 pts)6.619.08.428.20.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%65.8%
18VfL Bochum (0-8-2, 2 pts)6.818.58.729.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.7%63.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.