German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Mainz 05
Holstein Kiel 		43.6%
31.7%		24.7%
+130
+218
+125
+215
1.57
1.30		2.87
o2¾-104
u2¾-112
o2½-130
u2½+115
FC St. Pauli
Borussia Monchengladbach 		14.6%
67.8%		17.6%
+353
-125
+350
-125
1.05
2.44		3.49
o2¾+101
u2¾-117
o2½-125
u2½+110
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Augsburg
FC Heidenheim		35.3%
38.1%		26.6%
+200
+145
+185
+144
0
4		-0.91902-0.93736-0.96556
RB Leipzig
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		22.2%
55.7%		22.1%
+400
-151
+365
-150
3
2		-1.62826-1.58440-1.50666
Wolfsburg
Holstein Kiel		36.6%
37.4%		26.0%
+135
+203
+135
+200
2
0		-0.87640-0.89040-1.00608
Borussia Monchengladbach
VfL Bochum		29.8%
46.1%		24.1%
+140
+190
+145
+181
2
0		-0.89321-0.92359-1.21160
Dortmund
Werder Bremen		45.7%
30.3%		24.0%
-107
+285
-110
+265
0
0		-1.40499-1.42912-1.42895
Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart		22.0%
55.9%		22.1%
+420
-148
+410
-160
3
3		-1.49785-1.49263-1.50919
Hoffenheim
Eintracht Frankfurt		19.9%
59.8%		20.3%
+375
-148
+365
-145
1
3		-0.54531-0.56065-0.51420
FC St. Pauli
Union Berlin		12.1%
70.8%		17.1%
+335
-105
+310
-110
0
1		-0.69645-0.69866-0.34599
FC Heidenheim
FC St. Pauli		27.5%
48.1%		24.4%
+305
+100
+280
+105
2
0		-1.42312-1.37101-1.29215
Bayern Munich
Wolfsburg		68.3%
13.8%		17.8%
-195
+543
-200
+535
3
2		-0.42278-0.44172-0.38108
Eintracht Frankfurt
Dortmund		20.3%
59.5%		20.2%
+352
-128
+315
-130
0
2		-0.59675-0.61278-0.51985
VfL Bochum
RB Leipzig		7.6%
79.6%		12.7%
+1100
-420
+1200
-480
0
1		-0.23851-0.23360-0.22770
Union Berlin
Mainz 05		29.3%
45.2%		25.5%
+287
+110
+285
+105
1
1		-1.25208-1.24327-1.36743
Holstein Kiel
Hoffenheim		9.7%
76.4%		13.9%
+405
-157
+381
-160
2
3		-0.51428-0.53001-0.26897
Werder Bremen
Augsburg		25.0%
51.8%		23.1%
+184
+154
+175
+150
2
2		-1.31431-1.31744-1.46443
VfB Stuttgart
Freiburg		41.2%
33.0%		25.8%
-101
+277
-105
+275
1
3		-1.34777-1.35642-1.10809
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks65-1-0 (0.833)0-0.62716 
Sportsbooks65-1-0 (0.833)0-0.62499 
DRatings65-1-0 (0.833)0-0.59426
0.03290
0.03073

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (8-0-2, 26 pts)21.64.67.772.681.5%99.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2RB Leipzig (6-1-3, 21 pts)17.07.49.560.76.7%76.4%17.7%0.0%0.0%
3Eintracht Frankfurt (6-2-2, 20 pts)15.69.88.755.41.2%45.6%28.7%0.1%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4-1-5, 17 pts)17.26.010.962.49.2%86.4%9.9%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (5-3-2, 17 pts)14.410.88.852.00.3%21.0%29.8%0.1%0.1%
6Union Berlin (4-2-4, 16 pts)12.510.710.848.20.0%8.8%19.4%0.5%0.2%
7Dortmund (5-4-1, 16 pts)15.311.27.653.40.7%30.8%28.4%0.0%0.0%
8Werder Bremen (4-3-3, 15 pts)11.612.59.944.70.0%3.3%8.8%1.9%1.5%
9Borussia Monchengladbach (4-4-2, 14 pts)12.213.08.745.40.0%4.9%10.8%1.8%0.7%
10Mainz 05 (3-3-4, 13 pts)10.812.510.743.10.0%2.2%7.7%3.8%1.8%
11VfB Stuttgart (3-3-4, 13 pts)13.510.110.550.90.4%18.6%27.6%0.1%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.913.39.942.50.0%1.5%6.6%4.2%1.9%
13Augsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.414.09.740.80.0%0.5%2.2%6.2%3.4%
14FC Heidenheim (3-6-1, 10 pts)9.217.47.435.00.0%0.0%0.4%18.4%19.4%
15Hoffenheim (2-5-3, 9 pts)9.414.99.738.00.0%0.2%1.8%10.1%9.2%
16FC St. Pauli (2-6-2, 8 pts)8.117.58.432.60.0%0.0%0.0%22.1%32.1%
17Holstein Kiel (1-7-2, 5 pts)6.619.08.428.20.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%65.8%
18VfL Bochum (0-8-2, 2 pts)6.818.58.729.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.7%63.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.