German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Mainz 05
Holstein Kiel 		43.6%
31.7%		24.7%
+130
+218
+125
+215
1.57
1.30		2.87
o2¾-104
u2¾-112
o2½-130
u2½+115
FC St. Pauli
Borussia Monchengladbach 		14.6%
67.8%		17.6%
+353
-125
+350
-125
1.05
2.44		3.49
o2¾+101
u2¾-117
o2½-125
u2½+110
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
FC Heidenheim
Freiburg		10.5%
73.4%		16.1%
+355
-133
+351
-135
1
1		-1.45423-1.43146-1.82455
Eintracht Frankfurt
Borussia Monchengladbach		23.5%
54.8%		21.7%
+155
+172
+155
+161
1
1		-1.34788-1.34285-1.52841
VfB Stuttgart
Augsburg		31.5%
43.3%		25.2%
-128
+305
-130
+310
1
0		-0.60789-0.60728-1.15483
Mainz 05
FC Heidenheim		42.5%
31.7%		25.8%
+146
+201
+145
+188
1
1		-1.27690-1.28471-1.35421
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Eintracht Frankfurt		42.4%
32.7%		24.8%
+144
+194
+140
+200
5
1		-0.91862-0.90589-0.85713
VfL Bochum
Union Berlin		14.2%
67.0%		18.7%
+305
+102
+320
-105
4
3		-1.41828-1.47124-1.94919
Freiburg
FC Koln		36.0%
37.9%		26.1%
+193
+145
+190
+139
0
0		-1.33382-1.33128-1.34408
Bayern Munich
VfB Stuttgart		65.8%
15.6%		18.5%
+160
+165
+190
+155
1
3		-0.99277-0.92299-1.85579
Borussia Monchengladbach
Werder Bremen		41.0%
34.0%		25.0%
+235
+115
+220
+120
2
2		-1.36924-1.34500-1.38790
Augsburg
Dortmund		12.4%
71.3%		16.3%
+243
+104
+240
+105
1
5		-0.73482-0.73491-0.33869
Darmstadt 98
Wolfsburg		19.5%
59.5%		21.0%
+864
-315
+850
-310
0
3		-0.30716-0.32281-0.51955
RB Leipzig
Hoffenheim		44.0%
31.4%		24.7%
-190
+440
-200
+425
1
1		-1.71920-1.72783-1.39922
FC Heidenheim
Darmstadt 98		23.8%
53.1%		23.1%
+118
+229
+118
+220
1
0		-0.80824-0.82351-1.43418
FC Koln
Mainz 05		24.7%
52.4%		22.9%
+490
-170
+490
-177
1
1		-1.50765-1.49884-1.47338
Union Berlin
Borussia Monchengladbach		24.3%
52.4%		23.3%
+186
+160
+188
+150
0
0		-1.27257-1.26429-1.45856
VfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		12.8%
70.3%		16.9%
+316
-118
+310
-120
2
2		-1.43624-1.41535-1.77537
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks65-1-0 (0.833)0-0.62716 
Sportsbooks65-1-0 (0.833)0-0.62499 
DRatings65-1-0 (0.833)0-0.59426
0.03290
0.03073

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (8-0-2, 26 pts)21.64.67.772.681.5%99.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2RB Leipzig (6-1-3, 21 pts)17.07.49.560.76.7%76.4%17.7%0.0%0.0%
3Eintracht Frankfurt (6-2-2, 20 pts)15.69.88.755.41.2%45.6%28.7%0.1%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4-1-5, 17 pts)17.26.010.962.49.2%86.4%9.9%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (5-3-2, 17 pts)14.410.88.852.00.3%21.0%29.8%0.1%0.1%
6Union Berlin (4-2-4, 16 pts)12.510.710.848.20.0%8.8%19.4%0.5%0.2%
7Dortmund (5-4-1, 16 pts)15.311.27.653.40.7%30.8%28.4%0.0%0.0%
8Werder Bremen (4-3-3, 15 pts)11.612.59.944.70.0%3.3%8.8%1.9%1.5%
9Borussia Monchengladbach (4-4-2, 14 pts)12.213.08.745.40.0%4.9%10.8%1.8%0.7%
10Mainz 05 (3-3-4, 13 pts)10.812.510.743.10.0%2.2%7.7%3.8%1.8%
11VfB Stuttgart (3-3-4, 13 pts)13.510.110.550.90.4%18.6%27.6%0.1%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.913.39.942.50.0%1.5%6.6%4.2%1.9%
13Augsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.414.09.740.80.0%0.5%2.2%6.2%3.4%
14FC Heidenheim (3-6-1, 10 pts)9.217.47.435.00.0%0.0%0.4%18.4%19.4%
15Hoffenheim (2-5-3, 9 pts)9.414.99.738.00.0%0.2%1.8%10.1%9.2%
16FC St. Pauli (2-6-2, 8 pts)8.117.58.432.60.0%0.0%0.0%22.1%32.1%
17Holstein Kiel (1-7-2, 5 pts)6.619.08.428.20.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%65.8%
18VfL Bochum (0-8-2, 2 pts)6.818.58.729.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.7%63.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.