NEC Nijmegen at Ajax

Updated

NEC Nijmegen

3.4%8.7%87.9%
WinDrawAjax Win
0.52Projected Goals 3.17
0Final Score 1

Ajax

Last 5 Games

NEC Nijmegen
Money Line
W 0-3 vs Volendam-200
W 3-0 at Excelsior+115
T 0-0 vs Cambuur-165
L 0-1 at Go Ahead Eagles+185
T 1-1 vs Sparta Rotterdam+130
Ajax
Money Line
W 2-1 at Vitesse-205
W 0-4 vs Sparta Rotterdam-435
W 1-3 vs RKC Waalwijk-700
W 5-0 at Cambuur-380
W 4-1 at Excelsior-400

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.3%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
5.0%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnline5DimesSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
NEC Nijmegen+1200+1413+1300+1050+1348+1050+1413+1108.1
Ajax-480-512-575-486-528-486-486-375.0
Draw+500+629+600+645+681+645+681+682.6
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
NEC Nijmegen+1015----+1050+1050+1108.1
Ajax-400-----480-480-375.0
Draw+525----+625+625+682.6

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%
Ajax: 30.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

NEC Nijmegen: 10.0%
Ajax: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

NEC Nijmegen ML moved from +1411 to +1348
Ajax ML moved from -518 to -528

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 40.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%
Ajax: 30.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%
Ajax: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

NEC Nijmegen ML moved from +1100 to +1000
Ajax ML moved from -465 to -480

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
0.9%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnline5DimesSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3-110o3½+114o3¼-108o3¼-115o3½+114o3¼-115o3¼-108o3¼-104
Underu3-110u3½-134u3¼-112u3¼-105u3½-129u3¼-105u3½-129u3¼+104
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o3¼-104
Under-----u3¼+104

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 20.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

The Over moved from o3¼-120 to o3½-108
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes38.9%
 
No61.1%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 02.50%
Exactly 217.02%
Exactly 419.29%
Exactly 68.74%
Exactly 82.12%
Exactly 100.32%
 
Exactly 19.23%
Exactly 320.92%
Exactly 514.22%
Exactly 74.60%
Exactly 90.87%
Exactly 110.11%
Exact Goals Scored - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 059.35%
Exactly 130.96%
Exactly 28.08%
Exactly 31.40%
Exactly 40.18%
Exact Goals Scored - Ajax
Exactly 04.22%
Exactly 113.35%
Exactly 221.14%
Exactly 322.31%
Exactly 417.65%
Exactly 511.18%
Exactly 65.90%
Exactly 72.67%
Exactly 81.06%
Exactly 90.37%
Exactly 100.12%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 018.14%
Exactly 226.43%
Exactly 46.42%
Exactly 60.62%
 
Exactly 130.96%
Exactly 315.04%
Exactly 52.19%
Exactly 70.15%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 078.54%
Exactly 118.97%
Exactly 22.29%
Exactly 30.18%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Ajax
Exactly 023.09%
Exactly 133.85%
Exactly 224.80%
Exactly 312.12%
Exactly 44.44%
Exactly 51.30%
Exactly 60.32%

Alternate Props

Spread

NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 2+ goals0.66%
Ajax
Wins by 2+ goals71.32%
Wins by 3+ goals50.28%
Wins by 4+ goals30.58%
Wins by 5+ goals16.13%
Wins by 6+ goals7.44%
Wins by 7+ goals3.02%
Wins by 8+ goals1.08%
Wins by 9+ goals0.33%

Exact Winning Margin

NEC Nijmegen
Ajax
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 1 goal2.72%
Wins by 2 goals0.57%
Ajax
Wins by 1 goal16.54%
Wins by 2 goals21.05%
Wins by 3 goals19.70%
Wins by 4 goals14.45%
Wins by 5 goals8.69%
Wins by 6 goals4.42%
Wins by 7 goals1.94%
Wins by 8 goals0.75%
Wins by 9 goals0.26%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.597.50%2.50%
1.588.26%11.74%
2.571.24%28.76%
3.550.32%49.68%
4.531.03%68.97%
5.516.81%83.19%
6.58.07%91.93%
7.53.47%96.53%
8.51.34%98.66%

Total Goals NEC Nijmegen Over/Under

OverUnder
0.540.65%59.35%
1.59.68%90.32%
2.51.61%98.39%

Total Goals Ajax Over/Under

OverUnder
0.595.78%4.22%
1.582.43%17.57%
2.561.29%38.71%
3.538.98%61.02%
4.521.33%78.67%
5.510.15%89.85%
6.54.26%95.74%
7.51.59%98.41%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.581.86%18.14%
1.550.90%49.10%
2.524.47%75.53%
3.59.43%90.57%
4.53.01%96.99%

Score Props

Correct Score

NEC Nijmegen
Ajax
Score012345
0
2.50%
7.93%
12.55%
13.24%
10.48%
6.63%
1
1.31%
4.13%
6.54%
6.91%
5.47%
3.46%
2
0.34%
1.08%
1.71%
1.80%
1.43%
0.90%
NEC Nijmegen
1-01.31%
2-00.34%
2-11.08%
Draw
0-02.50%
1-14.13%
2-21.71%
3-30.31%
Ajax
0-17.93%
0-212.55%
1-26.54%
0-313.24%
1-36.91%
2-31.80%
0-410.48%
1-45.47%
2-41.43%
3-40.25%
0-56.63%
1-53.46%
2-50.90%
3-50.16%

Correct Score - First Half

NEC Nijmegen
Ajax
Score0123456
0
18.14%
26.58%
19.48%
9.52%
3.49%
1.02%
0.25%
1
4.38%
6.42%
4.71%
2.30%
0.84%
0.25%
0.06%
2
0.53%
0.78%
0.57%
0.28%
0.10%
0.03%
0.01%
NEC Nijmegen
1-04.38%
2-00.53%
2-10.78%
Draw
0-018.14%
1-16.42%
2-20.57%
Ajax
0-126.58%
0-219.48%
1-24.71%
0-39.52%
1-32.30%
2-30.28%
0-43.49%
1-40.84%
2-40.10%
0-51.02%
1-50.25%
0-60.25%