Estrela at Nacional

Updated

Estrela

27.2%27.0%45.7%
Estrela WinDrawNacional Win
1.01Projected Goals 1.39
1Final Score 0

Nacional

Last 5 Games

Estrela
Money Line
L 3-0 vs Sporting CP+940
L 0-2 at Vitoria+630
T 1-1 vs Gil Vicente FC+175
T 1-1 at Moreirense+365
T 0-0 vs Santa Clara+290
Nacional
Money Line
L 0-1 at Santa Clara+445
W 1-3 vs Casa Pia AC+150
L 0-3 at Benfica+1225
W 1-2 vs Famalicao+185
L 0-1 at Braga+550

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.9%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
4.6%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Estrela+275-+275+235+286+235+286+261.8
Nacional+105-+105+109+104+109+109+125.7
Draw+210-+210+230+222+230+230+256.4
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Estrela+300----+295+295+261.8
Nacional+105----+105+105+125.7
Draw+220----+225+225+256.4

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Estrela: 60.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Nacional: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Estrela: 0.0%
Nacional: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Estrela: 60.0%
Nacional: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Estrela ML moved from +292 to +284
Nacional ML moved from +101 to -103

Overall

Overall Bet Value Active
Estrela: 80.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Nacional: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Estrela: 10.0%
Nacional: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Estrela: 70.0%
Nacional: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Estrela ML
No Steam Moves On Nacional ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.8%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2¼+105-o2¼-110o2¼-118o2¼-112o2¼-118o2¼-110o2¼-107
Underu2¼-125-u2¼-110u2¼-102u2¼-108u2¼-102u2¼-102u2¼+107
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2¼-107
Under-----u2¼+107

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 20.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes47.6%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 09.11%
Exactly 226.14%
Exactly 412.51%
Exactly 62.39%
Exactly 80.25%
 
Exactly 121.82%
Exactly 320.88%
Exactly 55.99%
Exactly 70.82%
Exact Goals Scored - Estrela
Exactly 036.58%
Exactly 136.79%
Exactly 218.50%
Exactly 36.20%
Exactly 41.56%
Exactly 50.31%
Exact Goals Scored - Nacional
Exactly 024.90%
Exactly 134.62%
Exactly 224.07%
Exactly 311.16%
Exactly 43.88%
Exactly 51.08%
Exactly 60.25%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 032.97%
Exactly 220.29%
Exactly 42.08%
 
Exactly 136.58%
Exactly 37.50%
Exactly 50.46%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Estrela
Exactly 062.77%
Exactly 129.23%
Exactly 26.81%
Exactly 31.06%
Exactly 40.12%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Nacional
Exactly 052.53%
Exactly 133.82%
Exactly 210.89%
Exactly 32.34%
Exactly 40.38%

Alternate Props

Spread

Estrela
Wins by 2+ goals9.90%
Wins by 3+ goals2.73%
Wins by 4+ goals0.57%
Nacional
Wins by 2+ goals21.86%
Wins by 3+ goals8.16%
Wins by 4+ goals2.44%
Wins by 5+ goals0.58%

Exact Winning Margin

Estrela
Nacional
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
Estrela
Wins by 1 goal17.24%
Wins by 2 goals7.16%
Wins by 3 goals2.16%
Wins by 4 goals0.50%
Nacional
Wins by 1 goal23.84%
Wins by 2 goals13.70%
Wins by 3 goals5.72%
Wins by 4 goals1.86%
Wins by 5 goals0.49%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.590.89%9.11%
1.569.07%30.93%
2.542.93%57.07%
3.522.05%77.95%
4.59.54%90.46%
5.53.54%96.46%
6.51.15%98.85%

Total Goals Estrela Over/Under

OverUnder
0.563.42%36.58%
1.526.63%73.37%
2.58.14%91.86%
3.51.93%98.07%

Total Goals Nacional Over/Under

OverUnder
0.575.10%24.90%
1.540.49%59.51%
2.516.42%83.58%
3.55.27%94.73%
4.51.39%98.61%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.567.03%32.97%
1.530.44%69.56%
2.510.15%89.85%
3.52.64%97.36%

Score Props

Correct Score

Estrela
Nacional
Score012345
0
9.11%
12.66%
8.80%
4.08%
1.42%
0.39%
1
9.16%
12.73%
8.85%
4.10%
1.43%
0.40%
2
4.61%
6.40%
4.45%
2.06%
0.72%
0.20%
3
1.54%
2.15%
1.49%
0.69%
0.24%
0.07%
4
0.39%
0.54%
0.38%
0.17%
0.06%
0.02%
Estrela
1-09.16%
2-04.61%
2-16.40%
3-01.54%
3-12.15%
3-21.49%
4-00.39%
4-10.54%
4-20.38%
4-30.17%
Draw
0-09.11%
1-112.73%
2-24.45%
3-30.69%
Nacional
0-112.66%
0-28.80%
1-28.85%
0-34.08%
1-34.10%
2-32.06%
0-41.42%
1-41.43%
2-40.72%
3-40.24%
0-50.39%
1-50.40%
2-50.20%

Correct Score - First Half

Estrela
Nacional
Score01234
0
32.97%
21.23%
6.83%
1.47%
0.24%
1
15.35%
9.89%
3.18%
0.68%
0.11%
2
3.57%
2.30%
0.74%
0.16%
0.03%
3
0.55%
0.36%
0.11%
0.02%
0.00%
Estrela
1-015.35%
2-03.57%
2-12.30%
3-00.55%
3-10.36%
3-20.11%
Draw
0-032.97%
1-19.89%
2-20.74%
Nacional
0-121.23%
0-26.83%
1-23.18%
0-31.47%
1-30.68%
2-30.16%
0-40.24%
1-40.11%