Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Betis
Valencia 		23.5%
51.9%		24.6%
+222
+155
+210
+170
1.03
1.64		2.67
o2-116
u2+105
o2-120
u2+100
Overall Bet Value Active
Alaves
Atletico Madrid 		10.5%
70.5%		19.0%
+725
-215
+850
-230
0.65
2.07		2.72
o2½+102
u2½-116
o2½+105
u2½-120
Mallorca
Las Palmas 		30.9%
39.6%		29.5%
+182
+192
+180
+190
0.98
1.15		2.13
o2-108
u2-104
o2-105
u2-105
Espanyol
Girona 		18.4%
58.5%		23.0%
+495
-157
+490
-165
0.89
1.79		2.68
o2¼-115
u2½-126
o2½+115
u2½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Volatility Bet Value Active
Barcelona
Celta Vigo 		57.8%
19.5%		22.7%
-140
+351
-145
+340
1.82
0.96		2.78
o3¼-107
u3½-133
o3-135
u3½-135
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 22, 2024
Games for Nov 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rayo Vallecano
Mallorca		22.9%
50.9%		26.2%
+340
+108
+310
+110
0
1		-0.75754-0.78878-0.67558
Real Madrid
Celta Vigo		66.1%
14.2%		19.8%
-173
+540
-175
+468
2
1		-0.46350-0.48700-0.41455
Real Sociedad
Girona		30.2%
41.7%		28.1%
+180
+174
+180
+170
1
0		-1.05443-1.07752-1.19889
Betis
Osasuna		31.7%
40.4%		27.9%
+228
+145
+215
+145
2
1		-1.21023-1.18016-1.14911
Espanyol
Athletic Club		10.7%
71.0%		18.3%
+800
-210
+750
-220
1
4		-0.40066-0.40462-0.34222
Valladolid
Alaves		15.9%
61.5%		22.6%
+500
-159
+515
-168
3
2		-1.82492-1.86130-1.84099
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad		43.6%
28.1%		28.2%
+174
+193
+170
+190
1
1		-1.17083-1.15506-1.26503
Betis
Sevilla		22.5%
52.7%		24.8%
+183
+174
+180
+165
0
1		-1.03364-1.02521-0.64071
Barcelona
Alaves		56.8%
19.3%		23.9%
-138
+380
-142
+365
3
0		-0.56553-0.57782-0.56651
Athletic Club
Girona		38.4%
32.3%		29.2%
+220
+141
+220
+135
1
2		-0.90525-0.89644-1.12865
Villarreal
Real Madrid		6.5%
81.1%		12.4%
+965
-366
+875
-400
0
2		-0.26864-0.27055-0.20929
Celta Vigo
Las Palmas		35.1%
35.6%		29.3%
+120
+300
+100
+280
1
0		-0.76673-0.73779-1.04609
Rayo Vallecano
Valladolid		31.2%
40.7%		28.1%
+155
+247
+150
+215
2
1		-0.94425-0.96582-1.16491
Osasuna
Getafe		24.5%
47.4%		28.1%
+317
+118
+315
+115
1
1		-1.15230-1.14178-1.26844
Mallorca
Espanyol		30.1%
41.2%		28.6%
+135
+274
+145
+265
1
2		-1.34500-1.32017-0.88600
Valencia
Leganes		46.2%
26.2%		27.6%
+200
+206
+190
+195
0
0		-1.05826-1.05794-1.28652
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.53619 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.56777 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.60172
-0.06553
-0.03395

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Barcelona (11-2-0, 33 pts)25.07.15.980.848.5%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Real Madrid (8-1-3, 27 pts)24.25.38.581.246.7%99.8%0.2%0.0%
3Atletico Madrid (7-1-5, 26 pts)19.76.811.470.64.5%93.3%4.8%0.0%
4Villarreal (7-2-3, 24 pts)16.411.110.559.70.3%33.1%36.1%0.1%
5Osasuna (6-4-3, 21 pts)13.514.59.950.50.0%3.0%13.5%3.0%
6Athletic Club (5-3-5, 20 pts)16.010.211.859.70.0%39.1%34.2%0.0%
7Betis (5-3-5, 20 pts)13.412.512.052.40.0%4.8%22.8%1.0%
8Real Sociedad (5-5-3, 18 pts)14.613.110.254.10.0%11.2%26.7%1.1%
9Mallorca (5-5-3, 18 pts)12.814.910.348.60.0%2.1%8.7%4.3%
10Girona (5-5-3, 18 pts)13.714.310.051.10.0%5.6%14.7%2.9%
11Celta Vigo (5-6-2, 17 pts)13.615.39.149.80.0%3.1%13.5%3.1%
12Rayo Vallecano (4-4-4, 16 pts)11.515.311.245.70.0%0.8%5.8%12.3%
13Sevilla (4-6-3, 15 pts)12.915.110.048.70.0%2.3%9.4%5.0%
14Leganes (3-5-5, 14 pts)8.717.811.537.70.0%0.0%0.3%56.3%
15Alaves (4-8-1, 13 pts)12.417.58.145.30.0%0.8%3.7%15.0%
16Las Palmas (3-7-3, 12 pts)10.217.99.940.60.0%0.1%1.2%38.5%
17Getafe (1-5-7, 10 pts)8.915.313.940.50.0%0.1%1.2%36.0%
18Espanyol (3-8-1, 10 pts)10.918.98.340.90.0%0.2%0.5%37.3%
19Valladolid (2-8-3, 9 pts)8.919.49.736.40.0%0.1%0.0%65.0%
20Valencia (1-6-4, 7 pts)10.715.711.743.70.0%0.5%2.7%19.1%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.