UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-255
+230
-230
+225
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-180
+160
-175
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+330
-400
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+110
-130
+110
-120
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+143
-163
+140
-155
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+180
-205
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+153
-170
+160
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
-325
+275
-300
+280
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+285
-350
+300
-350
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+172
-200
+175
-200
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+130
-145
+140
-140
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-172
+155
-170
+160
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Karl Roberson
Marvin Vettori		32.7%
67.3%
+180
-210
+190
-215
Loss
Win		-0.41530-0.40218-0.39591
Charles Rosa
Kevin Aguilar		40.1%
59.9%
+140
-153
+150
-160
Win
Loss		-0.90150-0.93570-0.91499
Charles Jourdain
Andre Fili		35.4%
64.6%
+191
-220
+195
-220
Loss
Win		-0.39760-0.39414-0.43657
Mark De La Rosa
Jordan Espinosa		44.7%
55.3%
+160
-175
+160
-165
Loss
Win		-0.46861-0.47963-0.59240
Hannah Cifers
Mariya Agapova		26.6%
73.4%
+315
-370
+330
-350
Loss
Win		-0.25730-0.25798-0.30872
Gustavo Lopez
Merab Dvalishvili		16.4%
83.6%
+575
-700
+625
-750
Loss
Win		-0.14684-0.13673-0.17907
Gina Mazany
Julia Avila		15.5%
84.5%
+500
-640
+500
-640
Loss
Win		-0.16358-0.16358-0.16835
Zarrukh Adashev
Tyson Nam		45.8%
54.2%
+115
-125
+120
-120
Loss
Win		-0.60657-0.60614-0.61157
Christian Aguilera
Anthony Ivy		38.9%
61.1%
+160
-175
+175
-190
Win
Loss		-0.98315-1.03781-0.94325

Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.