English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 27, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Brentford
Brighton and Hove Albion 		15.4%
63.4%		21.2%
+395
-153
+390
-160
0.83
1.94		2.77
o3¼-101
u3+120
o3-135
u3½-140
Ipswich Town
Arsenal 		4.6%
84.9%		10.5%
+2000
-775
+1900
-810
0.57
2.94		3.51
o3½-102
u3½-109
o3½+100
u3½-115
Games for Dec 26, 2024
Games for Dec 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Leicester City
Liverpool		4.1%
86.8%		9.1%
+2508
-893
+2740
-1550
1
3		-0.11516-0.10296-0.14168
Manchester United
Wolverhampton		51.3%
23.3%		25.4%
-115
+350
-120
+330
0
2		-1.51558-1.50233-1.45642
Fulham
Chelsea		14.2%
65.4%		20.3%
+560
-193
+550
-210
2
1		-1.89486-1.91061-1.95003
Tottenham
Nottingham Forest		47.4%
26.9%		25.8%
+219
+122
+215
+125
0
1		-0.81011-0.83170-1.31446
West Ham United
Southampton		27.7%
47.0%		25.3%
+135
+222
+140
+210
1
0		-0.86517-0.90830-1.28547
Crystal Palace
Bournemouth		31.4%
40.0%		28.6%
+256
+116
+270
+105
0
0		-1.33025-1.34615-1.25309
Aston Villa
Newcastle United		24.0%
51.2%		24.8%
+291
-101
+280
-105
0
3		-0.70015-0.70031-0.67013
Everton
Manchester City		4.7%
84.9%		10.4%
+815
-262
+775
-280
1
1		-1.73875-1.70672-2.26394
Liverpool
Tottenham		43.0%
31.2%		25.8%
-157
+390
-165
+380
6
3		-0.52020-0.52562-0.84413
Bournemouth
Manchester United		11.9%
69.9%		18.2%
+320
-112
+310
-115
3
0		-1.46421-1.44244-2.12956
Wolverhampton
Leicester City		30.3%
42.6%		27.1%
+144
+202
+160
+200
3
0		-0.91832-0.95915-1.19346
Chelsea
Everton		47.9%
26.0%		26.1%
-144
+400
-150
+440
0
0		-1.46292-1.43970-1.34373
Southampton
Fulham		16.7%
62.4%		20.9%
+450
-160
+600
-159
0
0		-1.48797-1.52487-1.56767
Arsenal
Crystal Palace		52.6%
22.6%		24.8%
-209
+685
-215
+665
5
1		-0.41195-0.40985-0.64177
Newcastle United
Ipswich Town		52.8%
22.4%		24.8%
-137
+370
-140
+360
4
0		-0.57385-0.57439-0.63947
Nottingham Forest
Brentford		29.2%
42.6%		28.2%
+180
+153
+190
+150
2
0		-1.05935-1.09479-1.23155
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks84-2-2 (0.625)0-1.12125 
Sportsbooks84-2-2 (0.625)0-1.12614 
DRatings82-4-2 (0.375)0-1.29190
-0.17065
-0.16577

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 12/23/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (12-1-3, 39 pts)24.85.18.182.483.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
2Chelsea (10-2-5, 35 pts)19.57.810.869.24.0%81.2%8.9%0.0%
3Arsenal (9-2-6, 33 pts)20.36.711.071.88.9%91.3%6.0%0.0%
4Nottingham Forest (9-4-4, 31 pts)15.513.09.656.00.0%4.9%9.6%0.0%
5Bournemouth (8-5-4, 28 pts)14.313.99.852.70.0%1.6%3.9%0.1%
6Aston Villa (8-5-4, 28 pts)15.712.310.057.10.0%8.2%13.3%0.0%
7Manchester City (8-6-3, 27 pts)21.09.57.570.43.9%87.0%8.2%0.0%
8Newcastle United (7-5-5, 26 pts)14.812.111.155.60.0%5.4%10.0%0.0%
9Fulham (6-4-7, 25 pts)13.012.212.851.90.0%1.5%2.2%0.2%
10Brighton and Hove Albion (6-4-7, 25 pts)14.111.212.754.90.0%3.4%9.1%0.0%
11Tottenham (7-8-2, 23 pts)16.613.87.657.40.0%9.3%16.3%0.0%
12Brentford (7-8-2, 23 pts)12.917.47.646.40.0%0.1%0.8%2.0%
13Manchester United (6-7-4, 22 pts)15.512.99.756.10.1%6.2%11.4%0.0%
14West Ham United (5-7-5, 20 pts)10.516.910.642.20.0%0.0%0.1%9.0%
15Everton (3-6-7, 16 pts)9.415.712.941.20.0%0.0%0.0%11.8%
16Crystal Palace (3-7-7, 16 pts)10.414.713.044.10.0%0.0%0.1%4.2%
17Leicester City (3-9-5, 14 pts)8.119.610.334.70.0%0.0%0.0%55.8%
18Wolverhampton (3-11-3, 12 pts)8.620.78.734.60.0%0.0%0.0%50.4%
19Ipswich Town (2-9-6, 12 pts)6.819.911.431.70.0%0.0%0.0%76.5%
20Southampton (1-13-3, 6 pts)6.423.08.627.90.0%0.0%0.0%90.0%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.