MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
New York Yankees (20-12)
Baltimore Orioles (19-11)
Carlos Rodón
Kyle Bradish
42.7%
57.3%
-103
-105
+100
+101

-1½+155
+1½-155
3.81
4.57
8.38
o9-103
u9-110
o9-110
u9-110
All Bet Values Active
Chicago Cubs (19-12)
New York Mets (15-15)
Ben Brown
Adrian Houser
48.4%
51.6%
+102
-107
+103
-110
+1½-205
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+177
4.75
4.92
9.67
o8-103
u8-105
o8-105
u8-110
San Francisco Giants (14-17)
Boston Red Sox (18-13)
Kyle Harrison
Josh Winckowski
44.1%
55.9%
+105
-113
+108
-114


4.57
5.19
9.76
o9½+100
u9½-113
o9½+100
u9½-120
Washington Nationals (15-15)
Texas Rangers (16-15)
Mitchell Parker
Nathan Eovaldi
33.2%
66.8%
+173
-182
+181
-187
+1½-120
-1½+113
+1½-120
-1½+108
3.41
5.15
8.56
o8-104
u8-108
o8-105
u8-110
All Bet Values Active
Cleveland Guardians (20-10)
Houston Astros (10-20)
Logan Allen
Spencer Arrighetti
50.9%
49.1%
+117
-123
+120
-125
+1½-173
-1½+158
+1½-170
-1½+155
4.62
4.53
9.15
o9-103
u9-113
o9+100
u9-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Colorado Rockies (7-23)
Miami Marlins (8-24)
36.5%
63.5%
+157
-166
+159
-170
+1½-143
-1½+130
+1½-135
-1½+125
8.04
o7½-102
u7½-108
o7½-105
u7½-110
1st
BOT
0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
55.2%
44.8%
-133
+125
-134
+130
-1½+117
+1½-133
-1½+117
+1½-130
8
0
-0.57583-0.56488-0.59452
Cleveland Guardians
Houston Astros
37.4%
62.6%
+165
-172
+161
-170
+1½-128
-1½+112
+1½-135
-1½+118
3
2
-0.98422-0.97204-0.98379
Washington Nationals
Texas Rangers
35.7%
64.3%
+178
-184
+177
-183
+1½-118
-1½+105
+1½-120
-1½+110
1
0
-1.03002-1.02647-1.03052
San Francisco Giants
Boston Red Sox
42.8%
57.2%
+145
-148
+140
-150
+1½-145
-1½+132
+1½-153
-1½+135
2
6
-0.52115-0.52736-0.55872
Chicago Cubs
New York Mets
53.4%
46.6%
-118
+112
-116
+112
-1½+147
+1½-160
-1½+146
+1½-160
1
0
-0.62672-0.63038-0.62822
Colorado Rockies
Miami Marlins
40.5%
59.5%
+129
-136
+132
-132
+1½-163
-1½+147
+1½-165
-1½+155
1
4
-0.56405-0.56393-0.51916
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
42.2%
57.8%
+136
-145
+140
-147
+1½-153
-1½+137
+1½-155
-1½+141
2
0
-0.87412-0.88719-0.86332
Cincinnati Reds
San Diego Padres
47.6%
52.4%
+134
-140
+131
-140
+1½-163
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+150
2
6
-0.54962-0.55511-0.64684
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Angels
62.2%
37.8%
-194
+187
-205
+193
-1½-128
+1½+142
-1½-130
+1½+120
2
1
-0.42399-0.41065-0.47562
Atlanta Braves
Seattle Mariners
62.1%
37.9%
-174
+172
-175
+170
-1½-108
+1½+100
-1½-105
+1½-105
5
2
-0.45675-0.45869-0.47580
Pittsburgh Pirates
Oakland Athletics
51.7%
48.3%
-104
-104
+100
-105
-1½+199
+1½-175
-1½+160
+1½-175
0
4
-0.69315-0.68116-0.72807
Kansas City Royals
Toronto Blue Jays
45.1%
54.9%
+130
-137
+127
-136
+1½-173
-1½+157
+1½-173
-1½+155
6
1
-0.84567-0.83644-0.79558
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
67.0%
33.0%
-210
+193
-210
+190
-1½-138
+1½+122
-1½-125
+1½+120
10
5
-0.40801-0.41146-0.40109
St. Louis Cardinals
Detroit Tigers
46.9%
53.1%
-114
+104
-109
+106


1
4
-0.73560-0.72965-0.63378
Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers
42.2%
57.8%
-105
-104
-102
+105

-1½+155
+1½-175
1
7
-0.69549-0.71058-0.54899
Pittsburgh Pirates
Oakland Athletics
56.2%
43.8%
-127
+120
-125
+121
-1½+140
+1½-148
-1½+131
+1½-150
2
5
-0.80236-0.80100-0.82547
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks158-6 (0.567)1-0.66563 
Sportsbooks159-6 (0.600)0-0.66440 
DRatings1510-5 (0.667)0-0.65893
0.00669
0.00546

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.