France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 19, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Montpellier
Lens 		22.2%
54.5%		23.3%
+580
-214
+550
-235
1.06
1.78		2.84
o3¼-112
u3½-130
o3½+110
u3½-130
Clermont Foot
Lorient 		21.2%
54.2%		24.5%
+354
-138
+350
-145
0.93
1.65		2.58
o3-131
u3+111
o3-125
u3+105
Marseille
Le Havre 		59.8%
16.9%		23.3%
-120
+355
-125
+350
1.74
0.80		2.54
o2½-112
u2½+104
o2½-125
u2½+105
Brest
Toulouse 		31.6%
42.0%		26.4%
-113
+295
-115
+285
1.17
1.39		2.56
o2¾-118
u2¾+102
o3+110
u3-130
Paris Saint-Germain
Metz 		80.0%
6.6%		13.3%
-175
+460
-175
+430
2.64
0.64		3.28
o3¼-115
u3¼-105
o3½+110
u3½-130
Rennes
Reims 		35.0%
35.7%		29.3%
+150
+181
+145
+180
1.08
1.09		2.17
o3-104
u3-114
o3-105
u3-115
Nantes
Monaco 		17.0%
61.9%		21.1%
+595
-240
+560
-245
0.93
1.99		2.92
o3¼-122
u3½-119
o3½+105
u3½-125
Strasbourg
Lyon 		18.6%
59.9%		21.6%
+620
-226
+625
-255
0.99
1.96		2.95
o3¼-118
u3½-125
o3½+105
u3½-125
Nice
Lille 		15.4%
63.3%		21.4%
+435
-147
+430
-160
0.82
1.92		2.74
o2½-122
u2¾-117
o2½-125
u2½+105
Games for May 18, 2024
Games for May 20, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lorient
Lens		15.7%
63.7%		20.6%
+600
-223
+570
-220
0
2		-0.39940-0.42089-0.45039
Montpellier
Toulouse		32.9%
40.8%		26.3%
+258
+105
+250
+100
2
1		-1.29861-1.30383-1.11069
Lens
Marseille		18.6%
59.0%		22.4%
+226
+125
+215
+125
1
2		-0.83949-0.86140-0.52726
Monaco
Lyon		31.7%
42.7%		25.6%
+186
+140
+175
+130
2
3		-0.89104-0.88020-0.85043
Brest
Rennes		20.0%
57.2%		22.8%
+261
+120
+235
+125
5
4		-1.31334-1.25836-1.61099
Toulouse
Lorient		28.3%
46.0%		25.8%
+201
+150
+170
+160
2
1		-1.11893-1.04120-1.26397
Reims
Clermont Foot		35.3%
34.3%		30.3%
+110
+249
+110
+235
1
4		-1.27751-1.26008-1.06921
Nice
Strasbourg		27.9%
45.6%		26.5%
+125
+257
+125
+235
3
1		-0.83374-0.86034-1.27654
Lille
Metz		55.9%
19.9%		24.2%
-150
+462
-160
+465
2
1		-0.53839-0.53631-0.58209
Le Havre
Paris Saint-Germain		3.0%
88.5%		8.6%
+885
-311
+850
-320
3
3		-1.78082-1.73738-2.45795
Nantes
Montpellier		25.7%
49.2%		25.1%
+280
+107
+275
+100
1
1		-1.31476-1.31420-1.38334
Nice
Marseille		14.1%
65.7%		20.2%
+261
+125
+255
+125
2
2		-1.22237-1.21190-1.60092
Lille
Monaco		27.6%
46.7%		25.7%
+198
+142
+185
+140
0
1		-0.89911-0.92352-0.76093
Paris Saint-Germain
Lorient		75.6%
9.0%		15.4%
-240
+631
-250
+605
4
1		-0.38128-0.38202-0.28007
Lyon
Paris Saint-Germain		6.7%
80.7%		12.5%
+415
-168
+425
-175
1
4		-0.50071-0.49989-0.21406
Marseille
Toulouse		48.3%
26.2%		25.5%
+174
+173
+165
+175
2
2		-1.23829-1.22622-1.36814
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/13/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (20-2-10, 70 pts)21.62.210.374.9100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Monaco (19-7-7, 64 pts)19.47.37.365.40.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Lille (16-7-10, 58 pts)16.47.310.359.50.0%63.8%36.2%0.0%
4Brest (16-7-10, 58 pts)16.57.310.359.60.0%34.8%65.2%0.0%
5Nice (15-8-9, 54 pts)15.49.19.555.70.0%1.4%98.6%0.0%
6Lens (14-11-8, 50 pts)14.311.48.351.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Lyon (15-13-5, 50 pts)15.413.45.351.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Marseille (12-9-11, 47 pts)13.29.311.551.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Rennes (12-11-10, 46 pts)12.511.210.347.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Toulouse (11-12-10, 43 pts)11.312.510.344.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Montpellier (10-12-11, 41 pts)10.412.311.342.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Reims (11-13-8, 41 pts)11.414.18.542.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Strasbourg (10-14-9, 39 pts)10.414.49.340.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Nantes (9-18-6, 33 pts)9.318.46.334.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Le Havre (7-15-11, 32 pts)7.115.711.232.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Metz (8-20-5, 29 pts)8.120.85.129.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Lorient (6-19-8, 26 pts)6.319.48.327.30.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
18Clermont Foot (5-18-10, 25 pts)5.418.310.326.40.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.