English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 19, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace 		29.3%
43.4%		27.3%
+275
-111
+260
-115
1.05
1.35		2.40
o3¼-122
u3½-116
o3½+100
u3½-120
Newcastle United
Brentford 		39.9%
32.3%		27.8%
+127
+193
+125
+190
1.26
1.10		2.36
o3¼-119
u3½-116
o3½+100
u3½-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Bournemouth
Chelsea 		9.1%
74.7%		16.3%
+525
-210
+480
-215
0.68
2.35		3.03
o3¾-112
u4-131
o3½-140
u4-130
Nottingham Forest
Burnley 		20.9%
53.5%		25.6%
+135
+195
+135
+195
0.87
1.55		2.42
o3¼+109
u3¼-122
o3-125
u3+110
Wolverhampton
Liverpool 		6.0%
81.2%		12.8%
+1350
-570
+1225
-640
0.60
2.67		3.27
o4-101
u4-111
o4-105
u4-110
Manchester United
Brighton and Hove Albion 		30.7%
42.0%		27.4%
+210
+114
+210
+110
1.09
1.32		2.41
o3½-126
u3¾-117
o3½-125
u3½+110
West Ham United
Manchester City 		4.8%
84.7%		10.5%
+1950
-905
+1850
-1100
0.62
3.01		3.63
o4-114
u4¼-122
o4-120
u4+110
Fulham
Luton Town 		50.2%
24.0%		25.7%
+127
+193
+125
+190
1.54
0.97		2.51
o3¼-108
u3½-132
o3½+115
u3½-130
Tottenham
Sheffield United 		67.7%
13.2%		19.1%
-272
+668
-285
+600
2.14
0.82		2.96
o4-103
u4-107
o4-110
u4-105
Everton
Arsenal 		8.0%
77.5%		14.4%
+1450
-505
+1350
-600
0.72
2.58		3.30
o3½+102
u3½-116
o3½+100
u3½-120
Games for May 18, 2024
Games for May 20, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
West Ham United
Chelsea		14.6%
65.1%		20.3%
+475
-193
+450
-170
0
5		-0.44690-0.47681-0.42984
Wolverhampton
Manchester City		3.6%
87.2%		9.2%
+2250
-1000
+2300
-1250
1
5		-0.12347-0.12501-0.13716
Nottingham Forest
Sheffield United		32.1%
37.7%		30.2%
-145
+405
-150
+380
3
1		-0.55210-0.55621-1.13522
Newcastle United
Burnley		40.8%
31.2%		28.0%
+101
+246
+100
+233
4
1		-0.72247-0.73639-0.89637
Fulham
Brentford		28.2%
44.9%		26.9%
+244
+109
+235
+105
0
0		-1.38625-1.38721-1.31193
Bournemouth
Arsenal		5.8%
82.2%		12.0%
+1225
-444
+1171
-500
0
3		-0.23414-0.22666-0.19600
Everton
Luton Town		53.8%
21.7%		24.5%
+152
+181
+150
+180
1
1		-1.33895-1.31119-1.40678
Tottenham
Chelsea		26.4%
48.5%		25.1%
+165
+145
+165
+140
0
2		-0.92920-0.91854-0.72313
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest		81.0%
6.1%		12.9%
-347
+1075
-360
+975
2
0		-0.27694-0.28523-0.21072
Arsenal
Tottenham		36.6%
36.5%		26.9%
-132
+346
-130
+340
3
2		-0.58419-0.60629-1.00529
Brighton and Hove Albion
Bournemouth		40.8%
31.3%		27.9%
+263
+100
+250
+120
0
3		-0.71119-0.78185-1.16178
Chelsea
Aston Villa		38.9%
33.2%		27.9%
+241
+110
+220
+105
2
2		-1.41494-1.45985-1.27737
Brentford
Everton		21.8%
53.9%		24.3%
+150
+196
+155
+195
0
1		-1.10452-1.10676-0.61823
Burnley
Manchester United		13.1%
67.3%		19.6%
+465
-197
+450
-200
1
1		-1.68072-1.64046-1.62923
Crystal Palace
Fulham		30.5%
41.5%		28.1%
+264
+112
+255
+110
1
1		-1.31494-1.28497-1.27029
Sheffield United
Newcastle United		8.4%
75.7%		15.9%
+1200
-433
+1000
-460
1
5		-0.22846-0.24222-0.27830
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/15/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (27-3-7, 88 pts)27.63.27.389.978.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Arsenal (27-5-5, 86 pts)27.55.25.387.721.4%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Liverpool (23-4-10, 79 pts)23.54.210.380.90.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Aston Villa (20-9-8, 68 pts)20.59.38.369.70.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
5Tottenham (19-12-6, 63 pts)19.712.16.265.40.0%0.0%95.9%0.0%
6Chelsea (17-11-9, 60 pts)17.411.39.361.60.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
7Newcastle United (17-14-6, 57 pts)17.514.26.358.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Manchester United (17-14-6, 57 pts)17.414.36.358.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9West Ham United (14-13-10, 52 pts)14.213.610.352.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Brighton and Hove Albion (12-13-12, 48 pts)12.313.412.349.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Bournemouth (13-15-9, 48 pts)13.315.49.349.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Crystal Palace (12-15-10, 46 pts)12.315.510.347.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Wolverhampton (13-17-7, 46 pts)13.217.57.346.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Fulham (12-17-8, 44 pts)12.617.28.246.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Everton (13-15-9, 42 pts)13.215.59.343.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Brentford (10-18-9, 39 pts)10.218.59.339.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Nottingham Forest (8-20-9, 29 pts)8.420.39.330.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18Luton Town (6-23-8, 26 pts)6.223.68.226.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
19Burnley (5-23-9, 24 pts)5.323.49.325.20.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Sheffield United (3-27-7, 16 pts)3.127.77.216.50.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.