English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chelsea
Leicester City 		54.2%
22.0%		23.7%
-218
+600
-230
+575
1.73
1.01		2.74
o3¼+104
u3¼-120
o3-130
u3½-150
Brentford
Everton 		23.7%
51.2%		25.1%
+205
+142
+195
+140
0.99
1.59		2.58
o2½-118
u2½+104
o2½-110
u2½+100
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal 		6.5%
80.1%		13.4%
+780
-245
+825
-260
0.61
2.61		3.22
o2½-129
u2¾-115
o2½-125
u2½+105
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa 		16.7%
61.5%		21.8%
+435
-148
+450
-160
0.87
1.90		2.77
o2½-115
u2½+107
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Wolverhampton
Fulham 		19.2%
56.8%		24.0%
+490
-169
+470
-160
0.88
1.69		2.57
o3-106
u3-104
o2½-140
u3-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Brighton and Hove Albion
Bournemouth 		43.0%
29.4%		27.6%
+180
+152
+185
+145
1.32
1.04		2.36
o3-118
u3+111
o3-105
u3+105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Tottenham
Manchester City 		10.1%
74.4%		15.5%
+640
-255
+588
-200
0.83
2.55		3.38
o3¾-109
u4-130
o3½-130
u3½+115
All Bet Values Active
Games for Nov 22, 2024
Games for Nov 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester City
Bournemouth		75.8%
8.8%		15.4%
-183
+525
-190
+510
1
2		-1.86105-1.85119-2.42622
Brighton and Hove Albion
Liverpool		9.2%
75.0%		15.8%
+685
-254
+610
-268
1
2		-0.35210-0.36677-0.28778
Everton
Southampton		31.6%
41.9%		26.5%
+172
+172
+169
+170
0
1		-1.03386-1.03308-0.86898
Arsenal
Newcastle United		47.4%
26.8%		25.8%
-102
+297
+100
+280
0
1		-1.40911-1.37145-1.31621
Liverpool
Arsenal		31.4%
42.0%		26.6%
+234
+127
+230
+125
2
2		-1.25723-1.26450-1.32298
Newcastle United
Chelsea		18.3%
58.9%		22.8%
+320
-122
+320
-130
1
2		-0.62972-0.60842-0.52921
Tottenham
Crystal Palace		43.8%
29.7%		26.4%
-107
+285
-110
+310
0
1		-1.36842-1.42853-1.21406
Manchester United
West Ham United		35.7%
36.5%		27.8%
+117
+235
+130
+215
1
2		-1.23121-1.16967-1.00682
Fulham
Everton		30.9%
41.9%		27.3%
+168
+174
+160
+175
1
1		-1.26592-1.25467-1.29979
Wolverhampton
Brighton and Hove Albion		15.3%
62.9%		21.8%
+478
-172
+485
-180
2
2		-1.53132-1.53072-1.52234
Southampton
Manchester City		2.9%
90.0%		7.1%
+2500
-763
+1900
-900
0
1		-0.13864-0.15138-0.10505
Bournemouth
Aston Villa		17.5%
60.6%		21.9%
+353
-126
+330
-115
1
1		-1.41416-1.39412-1.51855
Ipswich Town
Brentford		17.0%
60.6%		22.4%
+425
-150
+400
-154
3
4		-0.53900-0.54383-0.50119
Nottingham Forest
Leicester City		26.3%
47.7%		26.0%
+143
+205
+140
+196
3
1		-0.91672-0.92294-1.33382
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest		32.1%
38.4%		29.4%
+224
+139
+220
+140
0
1		-0.90005-0.90716-0.95589
Chelsea
Liverpool		14.3%
65.8%		19.9%
+377
-147
+380
-159
1
2		-0.54561-0.53142-0.41808
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.