English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 11, 2025

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TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chelsea
Newcastle United 		34.9%
36.6%		28.5%
+217
+122
+220
+118
1.12
1.16		2.28
o3+100
u3-113
o3+100
u3-110
Leicester City
Nottingham Forest 		10.8%
71.9%		17.3%
+768
-280
+760
-300
0.77
2.29		3.06
o2¾-116
u3-133
o2½-145
u2½+130
Crystal Palace
Tottenham 		27.4%
46.9%		25.8%
+151
+174
+150
+165
1.09
1.50		2.59
o3-116
u3+103
o3-120
u3+105
West Ham United
Manchester United 		18.5%
59.5%		21.9%
+271
+103
+275
-105
0.96
1.91		2.87
o2½-130
u2¾-110
o2½-135
u2½+120
Arsenal
Liverpool 		18.7%
59.2%		22.1%
+250
+117
+275
+100
0.96
1.90		2.86
o2¾-106
u2¾-110
o2½-140
u2½+125
Games for May 10, 2025
Games for May 16, 2025

Completed Games

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TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Tottenham
Liverpool		7.7%
79.2%		13.2%
+1151
-450
+1150
-450
1
5		-0.23500-0.22752-0.23359
Manchester United
Bournemouth		24.6%
50.2%		25.2%
+280
-107
+350
-115
1
1		-1.40646-1.39336-1.37876
West Ham United
Brighton and Hove Albion		16.6%
61.8%		21.5%
+341
-125
+360
-130
2
3		-0.61958-0.59671-0.48062
Fulham
Southampton		54.5%
21.9%		23.6%
-154
+450
-165
+447
2
1		-0.52626-0.52197-0.60616
Leicester City
Wolverhampton		17.2%
60.9%		21.9%
+530
-185
+520
-190
0
3		-0.46177-0.45845-0.49576
Ipswich Town
Newcastle United		8.2%
76.5%		15.2%
+1550
-548
+1670
-600
0
3		-0.19127-0.17860-0.26725
Everton
Chelsea		11.3%
70.8%		17.9%
+675
-228
+690
-210
0
1		-0.39150-0.40477-0.34513
Crystal Palace
Arsenal		11.1%
71.1%		17.8%
+785
-251
+815
-280
2
2		-1.63712-1.64641-1.72676
Aston Villa
Manchester City		11.5%
71.2%		17.3%
+287
-110
+280
-110
1
2		-0.68138-0.68474-0.33985
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham		25.7%
48.9%		25.4%
+196
+142
+195
+150
2
1		-1.11972-1.10226-1.35802
Liverpool
Leicester City		77.9%
8.2%		13.9%
-426
+1150
-475
+1245
1
0		-0.24018-0.22963-0.24921
Wolverhampton
Manchester United		18.0%
59.0%		22.9%
+175
+162
+200
+155
1
0		-1.04455-1.11139-1.71219
Chelsea
Fulham		42.6%
30.0%		27.5%
+134
+205
+135
+205
2
1		-0.88486-0.89279-0.85437
Arsenal
Ipswich Town		72.9%
10.2%		16.9%
-274
+840
-255
+840
4
0		-0.33503-0.34414-0.31568
Newcastle United
Aston Villa		31.7%
41.2%		27.1%
+174
+155
+170
+160
1
4		-0.96816-0.98773-0.88707
Southampton
West Ham United		12.9%
68.9%		18.2%
+450
-162
+500
-174
1
1		-1.50512-1.51018-1.70391
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Season Prediction Results

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 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks52-2-1 (0.500)0-1.23083 
Sportsbooks52-2-1 (0.500)0-1.22882 
DRatings52-2-1 (0.500)0-1.33832
-0.10748
-0.10950

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/05/25
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#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (25-3-7, 82 pts)26.43.77.887.1100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Arsenal (18-4-13, 67 pts)19.54.813.772.20.0%99.2%0.8%0.0%
3Manchester City (19-9-7, 64 pts)20.89.67.669.90.0%92.3%5.4%0.0%
4Chelsea (18-8-9, 63 pts)19.58.79.868.20.0%67.5%17.9%0.0%
5Newcastle United (19-10-6, 63 pts)19.911.26.966.60.0%26.8%41.9%0.0%
6Nottingham Forest (18-10-7, 61 pts)19.111.17.865.20.0%10.8%22.1%0.0%
7Aston Villa (17-9-9, 60 pts)18.110.09.964.30.0%3.4%11.9%0.0%
8Bournemouth (14-10-11, 53 pts)15.211.011.957.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Brentford (15-13-7, 52 pts)16.413.87.856.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Brighton and Hove Albion (13-9-13, 52 pts)14.110.113.856.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Fulham (14-12-9, 51 pts)14.913.39.854.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Crystal Palace (11-11-13, 46 pts)12.112.113.850.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Wolverhampton (12-18-5, 41 pts)12.819.45.844.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Everton (8-12-15, 39 pts)9.113.015.943.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Manchester United (10-16-9, 39 pts)11.017.29.942.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Tottenham (11-19-5, 38 pts)12.020.25.841.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17West Ham United (9-16-10, 37 pts)10.117.110.841.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18Ipswich Town (4-21-10, 22 pts)4.822.410.825.20.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
19Leicester City (5-24-6, 21 pts)5.825.36.924.20.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Southampton (2-28-5, 11 pts)2.530.05.512.90.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.