English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+665
-239
+650
-260
0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-112
u3½-124
o3½+120
u3½-130
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brentford
Chelsea		5.7%
82.1%		12.2%
+859
-240
+850
-260
4
1		-2.28112-2.28043-2.86628
Southampton
Leeds United		32.7%
40.9%		26.3%
+191
+150
+182
+141
1
1		-1.31219-1.32716-1.33374
Aston Villa
Wolverhampton		36.5%
35.0%		28.5%
+165
+217
+160
+204
1
2		-1.16697-1.14737-1.04877
Watford
Liverpool		3.1%
88.7%		8.3%
+1790
-588
+2000
-660
0
2		-0.18197-0.16786-0.12033
West Ham United
Tottenham		32.9%
41.4%		25.8%
+435
-137
+395
-139
1
3		-0.57249-0.58969-0.88259
Brentford
Leicester City		12.9%
68.1%		19.0%
+265
+116
+255
+116
1
2		-0.79655-0.80815-0.38384
Arsenal
Aston Villa		35.5%
36.8%		27.7%
+150
+200
+140
+200
1
0		-0.94338-0.91864-1.03538
Leeds United
Wolverhampton		28.7%
43.8%		27.4%
+252
+125
+270
+118
3
2		-1.27179-1.33116-1.24859
Newcastle United
Everton		18.5%
59.2%		22.3%
+226
+144
+218
+135
0
1		-0.91051-0.90101-0.52400
Liverpool
Arsenal		50.8%
24.1%		25.0%
+111
+272
+102
+270
2
0		-0.75963-0.73806-0.67659
Tottenham
Brighton and Hove Albion		31.1%
42.0%		26.9%
+112
+280
+108
+275
2
0		-0.77098-0.77308-1.16681
Manchester City
Crystal Palace		78.1%
7.3%		14.6%
-291
+900
-322
+900
0
0		-1.75267-1.76358-1.92422
Leicester City
Arsenal		27.9%
46.2%		25.9%
+663
-228
+685
-245
0
2		-0.38796-0.38306-0.77254
Watford
Southampton		17.6%
60.2%		22.3%
+455
-146
+435
-150
2
1		-1.73121-1.71336-1.73938
Wolverhampton
Everton		20.5%
55.5%		24.0%
+261
+135
+245
+125
1
0		-1.29960-1.28786-1.58567
Aston Villa
West Ham United		14.4%
66.5%		19.1%
+201
+160
+190
+151
1
2		-0.97075-0.96551-0.40834
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/25/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (10-1-1, 31 pts)24.66.27.181.161.2%99.2%0.6%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-3-2, 23 pts)23.37.37.477.229.0%96.5%2.5%0.0%
3Arsenal (6-2-4, 22 pts)20.07.710.270.37.1%84.2%8.4%0.0%
4Chelsea (6-2-4, 22 pts)17.89.211.064.51.8%47.9%20.2%0.0%
5Brighton and Hove Albion (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.610.211.261.00.4%24.2%20.0%0.0%
6Tottenham (6-5-1, 19 pts)17.612.48.060.80.2%27.0%17.8%0.0%
7Nottingham Forest (5-3-4, 19 pts)12.214.711.147.70.0%0.6%0.9%3.7%
8Aston Villa (5-3-4, 19 pts)15.011.811.356.20.2%8.2%9.5%0.2%
9Newcastle United (5-4-3, 18 pts)14.812.810.354.80.0%5.3%7.5%0.4%
10Fulham (5-4-3, 18 pts)13.414.510.150.30.0%1.8%2.6%1.6%
11Brentford (5-5-2, 17 pts)12.416.78.946.10.0%0.7%0.4%4.3%
12Manchester United (4-4-4, 16 pts)14.312.511.254.10.1%4.2%8.0%0.6%
13Bournemouth (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.716.110.245.30.0%0.1%0.6%7.4%
14West Ham United (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.616.110.345.20.0%0.0%0.7%8.9%
15Everton (2-5-5, 11 pts)9.616.412.040.70.0%0.1%0.2%24.9%
16Leicester City (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.117.911.038.30.0%0.0%0.0%38.9%
17Wolverhampton (2-7-3, 9 pts)9.718.210.139.20.0%0.0%0.1%32.4%
18Ipswich Town (1-5-6, 9 pts)7.218.112.734.20.0%0.0%0.0%66.6%
19Crystal Palace (1-6-5, 8 pts)9.116.912.139.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.6%
20Southampton (1-10-1, 4 pts)7.922.37.831.60.0%0.0%0.0%79.5%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.