English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 20, 2024

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Games for May 19, 2024
Games for May 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Newcastle United
Manchester United		23.7%
51.6%		24.6%
+141
+177
+140
+175
2
3		-1.03851-1.04957-0.66070
Chelsea
Brighton and Hove Albion		37.0%
34.3%		28.8%
+105
+244
+102
+235
2
1		-0.73432-0.74573-0.99550
Manchester City
Tottenham		55.4%
21.8%		22.8%
-251
+580
-280
+600
2
0		-0.35358-0.34432-0.59074
Liverpool
Aston Villa		53.7%
22.6%		23.7%
-126
+296
-128
+280
3
3		-1.56170-1.56715-1.43881
Arsenal
Manchester United		44.0%
29.6%		26.5%
-330
+825
-340
+860
1
0		-0.29600-0.28696-0.82194
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest		58.4%
17.9%		23.6%
-115
+323
-120
+292
3
2		-0.64078-0.65547-0.53739
Crystal Palace
Wolverhampton		32.8%
37.6%		29.6%
+128
+229
+135
+227
3
1		-0.84889-0.86736-1.11599
Brighton and Hove Albion
Newcastle United		24.5%
50.0%		25.5%
+415
-166
+400
-170
1
1		-1.59484-1.60589-1.36602
Brentford
Bournemouth		28.7%
44.1%		27.2%
+227
+113
+234
+110
2
1		-1.21100-1.23433-1.24855
Luton Town
West Ham United		8.0%
77.2%		14.8%
+286
-115
+265
-115
1
3		-0.65454-0.66890-0.25925
Burnley
Tottenham		9.7%
74.5%		15.9%
+750
-311
+680
-310
1
2		-0.30661-0.32294-0.29464
Sheffield United
Everton		12.2%
68.6%		19.3%
+615
-227
+634
-240
0
1		-0.39469-0.38396-0.37750
Manchester City
Fulham		75.6%
8.9%		15.5%
-406
+1175
-457
+1250
4
0		-0.23422-0.23460-0.27957
Manchester United
Crystal Palace		35.0%
36.2%		28.8%
+258
+102
+260
+110
0
4		-0.73027-0.75226-1.01680
Tottenham
Liverpool		16.6%
63.3%		20.1%
+515
-227
+515
-245
2
4		-0.39525-0.38505-0.45800
Aston Villa
Brighton and Hove Albion		25.0%
49.5%		25.5%
+170
+150
+165
+170
0
1		-0.94595-0.99937-0.70298
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/15/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (27-3-7, 88 pts)27.63.27.389.978.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Arsenal (27-5-5, 86 pts)27.55.25.387.721.4%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Liverpool (23-4-10, 79 pts)23.54.210.380.90.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Aston Villa (20-9-8, 68 pts)20.59.38.369.70.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
5Tottenham (19-12-6, 63 pts)19.712.16.265.40.0%0.0%95.9%0.0%
6Chelsea (17-11-9, 60 pts)17.411.39.361.60.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
7Newcastle United (17-14-6, 57 pts)17.514.26.358.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Manchester United (17-14-6, 57 pts)17.414.36.358.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9West Ham United (14-13-10, 52 pts)14.213.610.352.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Brighton and Hove Albion (12-13-12, 48 pts)12.313.412.349.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Bournemouth (13-15-9, 48 pts)13.315.49.349.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Crystal Palace (12-15-10, 46 pts)12.315.510.347.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Wolverhampton (13-17-7, 46 pts)13.217.57.346.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Fulham (12-17-8, 44 pts)12.617.28.246.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Everton (13-15-9, 42 pts)13.215.59.343.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Brentford (10-18-9, 39 pts)10.218.59.339.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Nottingham Forest (8-20-9, 29 pts)8.420.39.330.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18Luton Town (6-23-8, 26 pts)6.223.68.226.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
19Burnley (5-23-9, 24 pts)5.323.49.325.20.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Sheffield United (3-27-7, 16 pts)3.127.77.216.50.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.