English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 11, 2025

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TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chelsea
Newcastle United 		34.9%
36.6%		28.5%
+227
+116
+220
+115
1.12
1.16		2.28
o3-108
u3-104
o3-110
u3-110
Leicester City
Nottingham Forest 		10.8%
71.9%		17.3%
+730
-266
+690
-275
0.77
2.29		3.06
o2¾-111
u2¾-102
o2½-145
u2½+130
Crystal Palace
Tottenham 		27.4%
46.9%		25.8%
+156
+169
+150
+165
1.09
1.50		2.59
o3-115
u3+103
o3-120
u3+100
West Ham United
Manchester United 		18.5%
59.5%		21.9%
+272
+103
+255
+100
0.96
1.91		2.87
o2½-130
u2¾-116
o2½-135
u2½+115
Arsenal
Liverpool 		18.7%
59.2%		22.1%
+276
+107
+270
+100
0.96
1.90		2.86
o2½-138
u2¾-103
o2½-145
u2½+130
Games for May 10, 2025
Games for May 12, 2025

Completed Games

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TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace		24.4%
48.6%		27.0%
+239
+122
+236
+120
1
1		-1.28757-1.27956-1.31067
Liverpool
Chelsea		38.6%
33.6%		27.8%
+191
+135
+215
+130
1
3		-0.88489-0.84551-1.08939
Tottenham
West Ham United		33.5%
39.9%		26.5%
+310
-113
+274
+100
1
1		-1.41042-1.40352-1.32791
Manchester United
Brentford		29.8%
43.4%		26.9%
+398
-152
+375
-130
3
4		-0.53631-0.58711-0.83579
Newcastle United
Brighton and Hove Albion		28.6%
44.4%		27.0%
+124
+212
+130
+202
1
1		-1.36465-1.37342-1.30859
Bournemouth
Arsenal		16.7%
61.8%		21.5%
+428
-147
+425
+100
2
1		-1.69200-1.59032-1.79072
Ipswich Town
Everton		13.6%
66.7%		19.7%
+525
-176
+520
-184
2
2		-1.50629-1.50851-1.62430
Southampton
Leicester City		25.6%
50.3%		24.1%
+190
+147
+190
+145
0
2		-0.93512-0.93407-0.68641
Fulham
Aston Villa		24.0%
51.2%		24.9%
+340
-114
+340
-120
0
1		-0.64930-0.63486-0.67025
Wolverhampton
Manchester City		7.8%
77.4%		14.9%
+865
-295
+775
-280
0
1		-0.31748-0.34273-0.25674
Brentford
Nottingham Forest		25.0%
48.3%		26.7%
+212
+130
+220
+130
2
0		-1.17186-1.18417-1.38709
Tottenham
Liverpool		7.7%
79.2%		13.2%
+1151
-450
+1150
-450
1
5		-0.23500-0.22752-0.23359
Manchester United
Bournemouth		24.6%
50.2%		25.2%
+280
-107
+350
-115
1
1		-1.40646-1.39336-1.37876
West Ham United
Brighton and Hove Albion		16.6%
61.8%		21.5%
+341
-125
+360
-130
2
3		-0.61958-0.59671-0.48062
Fulham
Southampton		54.5%
21.9%		23.6%
-154
+450
-165
+447
2
1		-0.52626-0.52197-0.60616
Leicester City
Wolverhampton		17.2%
60.9%		21.9%
+530
-185
+520
-190
0
3		-0.46177-0.45845-0.49576
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Season Prediction Results

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 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/05/25
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#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (25-3-7, 82 pts)26.43.77.887.1100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Arsenal (18-4-13, 67 pts)19.54.813.772.20.0%99.2%0.8%0.0%
3Manchester City (19-9-7, 64 pts)20.89.67.669.90.0%92.3%5.4%0.0%
4Chelsea (18-8-9, 63 pts)19.58.79.868.20.0%67.5%17.9%0.0%
5Newcastle United (19-10-6, 63 pts)19.911.26.966.60.0%26.8%41.9%0.0%
6Nottingham Forest (18-10-7, 61 pts)19.111.17.865.20.0%10.8%22.1%0.0%
7Aston Villa (17-9-9, 60 pts)18.110.09.964.30.0%3.4%11.9%0.0%
8Bournemouth (14-10-11, 53 pts)15.211.011.957.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Brentford (15-13-7, 52 pts)16.413.87.856.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Brighton and Hove Albion (13-9-13, 52 pts)14.110.113.856.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Fulham (14-12-9, 51 pts)14.913.39.854.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Crystal Palace (11-11-13, 46 pts)12.112.113.850.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Wolverhampton (12-18-5, 41 pts)12.819.45.844.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Everton (8-12-15, 39 pts)9.113.015.943.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Manchester United (10-16-9, 39 pts)11.017.29.942.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Tottenham (11-19-5, 38 pts)12.020.25.841.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17West Ham United (9-16-10, 37 pts)10.117.110.841.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18Ipswich Town (4-21-10, 22 pts)4.822.410.825.20.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
19Leicester City (5-24-6, 21 pts)5.825.36.924.20.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Southampton (2-28-5, 11 pts)2.530.05.512.90.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.