German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Freiburg
Dortmund 		21.6%
56.7%		21.7%
+360
-136
+395
-150
1.14
1.98		3.12
o2¾-120
u3-125
o3-105
u3-115
RB Leipzig
Hoffenheim 		50.3%
26.4%		23.3%
+121
+232
+115
+230
1.77
1.23		3.00
o3-112
u3+103
o3-115
u3+100
VfL Bochum
VfB Stuttgart 		10.1%
75.0%		14.9%
+730
-299
+770
-320
0.89
2.67		3.56
o3½-112
u3½+101
o3½-115
u3½+100
Union Berlin
Wolfsburg 		28.4%
46.1%		25.5%
+231
+136
+235
+135
1.13
1.52		2.65
o2¼-108
u2½-135
o2½+125
u2½-135
Volatility Bet Value Active
FC Heidenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 		4.9%
85.3%		9.8%
+1350
-500
+1200
-560
0.69
3.18		3.87
o3¼-119
u3¼+100
o3½+110
u3½-125
Werder Bremen
Eintracht Frankfurt 		16.9%
64.1%		19.0%
+355
-135
+350
-145
1.09
2.28		3.37
o3¼+100
u3½-141
o3-125
u3½-140
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 22, 2024
Games for Nov 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Augsburg
Bayern Munich		5.4%
84.5%		10.1%
+2000
-768
+1900
-935
0
3		-0.14968-0.14302-0.16832
Wolfsburg
FC Heidenheim		37.7%
35.4%		26.9%
+155
+195
+150
+190
3
1		-0.96969-0.96748-0.97591
Eintracht Frankfurt
VfB Stuttgart		23.0%
55.1%		22.0%
+360
-129
+328
-125
3
2		-1.55037-1.49544-1.47111
Hoffenheim
Augsburg		28.7%
47.3%		23.9%
+260
+114
+255
+110
0
0		-1.29335-1.32610-1.42954
Borussia Monchengladbach
RB Leipzig		12.5%
71.1%		16.4%
+425
-153
+390
-170
0
0		-1.52134-1.57591-1.80783
Holstein Kiel
Werder Bremen		14.6%
67.7%		17.6%
+440
-161
+415
-165
1
2		-0.50710-0.52197-0.38986
Dortmund
Mainz 05		45.3%
30.4%		24.3%
-104
+286
-110
+285
1
3		-1.37888-1.39776-1.19198
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfL Bochum		71.4%
12.1%		16.5%
-363
+1000
-400
+960
1
1		-1.93233-1.95108-1.80011
Bayern Munich
FC St. Pauli		78.4%
8.5%		13.1%
-525
+1500
-545
+1350
1
0		-0.20786-0.21742-0.24351
Freiburg
Union Berlin		33.0%
40.3%		26.7%
+220
+145
+210
+145
0
0		-1.19577-1.22714-1.32047
Werder Bremen
Borussia Monchengladbach		23.5%
54.6%		22.0%
+207
+128
+215
+115
1
4		-0.84795-0.81150-0.60587
Mainz 05
Freiburg		24.6%
51.8%		23.5%
+390
-126
+400
-125
0
0		-1.36920-1.34373-1.44732
RB Leipzig
Dortmund		34.4%
40.4%		25.2%
+220
+118
+230
+115
1
2		-0.80982-0.79969-0.90736
Augsburg
Wolfsburg		26.3%
49.4%		24.3%
+253
+112
+240
+110
1
1		-1.32927-1.31763-1.41498
VfL Bochum
Eintracht Frankfurt		12.0%
71.8%		16.2%
+595
-205
+610
-242
2
7		-0.41124-0.38945-0.33142
FC St. Pauli
Hoffenheim		19.1%
60.7%		20.1%
+300
-110
+295
-110
2
0		-1.41605-1.41309-1.65302
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.14968 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.14302 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.16832
-0.01864
-0.02530

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (8-0-2, 26 pts)21.64.67.772.681.5%99.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2RB Leipzig (6-1-3, 21 pts)17.07.49.560.76.7%76.4%17.7%0.0%0.0%
3Eintracht Frankfurt (6-2-2, 20 pts)15.69.88.755.41.2%45.6%28.7%0.1%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4-1-5, 17 pts)17.26.010.962.49.2%86.4%9.9%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (5-3-2, 17 pts)14.410.88.852.00.3%21.0%29.8%0.1%0.1%
6Union Berlin (4-2-4, 16 pts)12.510.710.848.20.0%8.8%19.4%0.5%0.2%
7Dortmund (5-4-1, 16 pts)15.311.27.653.40.7%30.8%28.4%0.0%0.0%
8Werder Bremen (4-3-3, 15 pts)11.612.59.944.70.0%3.3%8.8%1.9%1.5%
9Borussia Monchengladbach (4-4-2, 14 pts)12.213.08.745.40.0%4.9%10.8%1.8%0.7%
10Mainz 05 (3-3-4, 13 pts)10.812.510.743.10.0%2.2%7.7%3.8%1.8%
11VfB Stuttgart (3-3-4, 13 pts)13.510.110.550.90.4%18.6%27.6%0.1%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.913.39.942.50.0%1.5%6.6%4.2%1.9%
13Augsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.414.09.740.80.0%0.5%2.2%6.2%3.4%
14FC Heidenheim (3-6-1, 10 pts)9.217.47.435.00.0%0.0%0.4%18.4%19.4%
15Hoffenheim (2-5-3, 9 pts)9.414.99.738.00.0%0.2%1.8%10.1%9.2%
16FC St. Pauli (2-6-2, 8 pts)8.117.58.432.60.0%0.0%0.0%22.1%32.1%
17Holstein Kiel (1-7-2, 5 pts)6.619.08.428.20.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%65.8%
18VfL Bochum (0-8-2, 2 pts)6.818.58.729.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.7%63.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.