German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Freiburg
Dortmund 		21.6%
56.7%		21.7%
+360
-136
+373
-145
1.14
1.98		3.12
o2¾-118
u3-125
o3+110
u3-115
RB Leipzig
Hoffenheim 		50.3%
26.4%		23.3%
+121
+224
+115
+220
1.77
1.23		3.00
o3¼+100
u3+114
o3-120
u3+100
VfL Bochum
VfB Stuttgart 		10.1%
75.0%		14.9%
+755
-307
+710
-320
0.89
2.67		3.56
o3½-109
u3½-103
o3½-115
u3½+100
Union Berlin
Wolfsburg 		28.4%
46.1%		25.5%
+231
+136
+230
+135
1.13
1.52		2.65
o2¼-112
u2½-131
o2½+115
u2½-130
Volatility Bet Value Active
FC Heidenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 		4.9%
85.3%		9.8%
+1350
-500
+1200
-560
0.69
3.18		3.87
o3¼-115
u3¼-101
o3½+105
u3½-125
Werder Bremen
Eintracht Frankfurt 		16.9%
64.1%		19.0%
+355
-135
+350
-145
1.09
2.28		3.37
o3-120
u3+114
o3-125
u3½-140
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 22, 2024
Games for Nov 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
FC Heidenheim
Holstein Kiel		38.5%
35.6%		25.9%
+190
+150
+185
+150
0
1		-0.94246-0.96029-1.03381
Union Berlin
Bayern Munich		8.1%
78.3%		13.5%
+1850
-625
+1700
-660
0
3		-0.17441-0.17926-0.24420
VfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		15.8%
65.5%		18.8%
+420
-160
+425
-175
0
0		-1.55254-1.59484-1.67350
Hoffenheim
FC Heidenheim		27.0%
49.1%		23.9%
+160
+172
+170
+176
0
0		-1.30446-1.27100-1.43133
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin		30.0%
44.9%		25.1%
+220
+149
+200
+145
1
1		-1.22149-1.23746-1.38218
Bayern Munich
VfL Bochum		75.2%
10.0%		14.7%
-624
+1800
-800
+1700
5
0		-0.16305-0.16525-0.28459
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Werder Bremen		59.8%
19.6%		20.7%
-223
+590
-215
+520
2
2		-1.67590-1.65559-1.57683
Holstein Kiel
VfB Stuttgart		7.3%
80.8%		11.9%
+1200
-446
+1200
-480
1
2		-0.22818-0.22637-0.21295
Dortmund
Augsburg		43.3%
31.9%		24.7%
-121
+320
-125
+315
1
2		-1.45848-1.46508-1.14144
Freiburg
RB Leipzig		12.4%
70.5%		17.1%
+342
-123
+315
-125
1
3		-0.61646-0.63626-0.34954
Wolfsburg
FC St. Pauli		36.7%
37.0%		26.3%
+186
+160
+190
+149
0
0		-1.27257-1.27400-1.33644
Borussia Monchengladbach
Mainz 05		29.2%
46.7%		24.1%
+200
+129
+210
+130
1
1		-1.37737-1.35530-1.42416
Werder Bremen
Wolfsburg		27.6%
48.1%		24.3%
+267
+104
+250
+105
4
2		-1.32238-1.29916-1.28772
Union Berlin
Holstein Kiel		52.0%
24.7%		23.3%
+107
+282
+115
+270
2
0		-0.75377-0.79454-0.65462
VfB Stuttgart
Bayern Munich		11.2%
73.2%		15.6%
+880
-315
+820
-325
0
4		-0.29169-0.30238-0.31258
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		13.1%
70.1%		16.8%
+555
-207
+535
-215
1
2		-0.42071-0.41740-0.35568
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.14968 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.14302 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.16832
-0.01864
-0.02530

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (8-0-2, 26 pts)21.64.67.772.681.5%99.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2RB Leipzig (6-1-3, 21 pts)17.07.49.560.76.7%76.4%17.7%0.0%0.0%
3Eintracht Frankfurt (6-2-2, 20 pts)15.69.88.755.41.2%45.6%28.7%0.1%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4-1-5, 17 pts)17.26.010.962.49.2%86.4%9.9%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (5-3-2, 17 pts)14.410.88.852.00.3%21.0%29.8%0.1%0.1%
6Union Berlin (4-2-4, 16 pts)12.510.710.848.20.0%8.8%19.4%0.5%0.2%
7Dortmund (5-4-1, 16 pts)15.311.27.653.40.7%30.8%28.4%0.0%0.0%
8Werder Bremen (4-3-3, 15 pts)11.612.59.944.70.0%3.3%8.8%1.9%1.5%
9Borussia Monchengladbach (4-4-2, 14 pts)12.213.08.745.40.0%4.9%10.8%1.8%0.7%
10Mainz 05 (3-3-4, 13 pts)10.812.510.743.10.0%2.2%7.7%3.8%1.8%
11VfB Stuttgart (3-3-4, 13 pts)13.510.110.550.90.4%18.6%27.6%0.1%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.913.39.942.50.0%1.5%6.6%4.2%1.9%
13Augsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.414.09.740.80.0%0.5%2.2%6.2%3.4%
14FC Heidenheim (3-6-1, 10 pts)9.217.47.435.00.0%0.0%0.4%18.4%19.4%
15Hoffenheim (2-5-3, 9 pts)9.414.99.738.00.0%0.2%1.8%10.1%9.2%
16FC St. Pauli (2-6-2, 8 pts)8.117.58.432.60.0%0.0%0.0%22.1%32.1%
17Holstein Kiel (1-7-2, 5 pts)6.619.08.428.20.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%65.8%
18VfL Bochum (0-8-2, 2 pts)6.818.58.729.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.7%63.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.