English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 12, 2025

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TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Crystal Palace
Manchester City 		12.5%
68.6%		19.0%
+505
-190

0.78
2.14		2.92
o3-102
u3-107

Leicester City
Brighton and Hove Albion 		10.0%
73.9%		16.1%
+1000
-341

0.77
2.43		3.20
o3+102
u3-118

Aston Villa
Southampton 		63.4%
16.3%		20.3%
-171
+453

2.07
0.95		3.02
o3+106
u3-118

Everton
Nottingham Forest 		22.8%
51.7%		25.5%
+293
+110

0.94
1.56		2.50
o2-140
u2¼-119

Brentford
Arsenal 		9.7%
74.1%		16.2%
+489
-178

0.74
2.40		3.14
o2½-138
u2¾-109

Games for Apr 11, 2025
Games for Apr 13, 2025

Completed Games

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TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Newcastle United
Leicester City		51.8%
23.9%		24.3%
-220
+645
-225
+645
3
0		-0.40431-0.39993-0.65716
Manchester City
Manchester United		45.6%
28.4%		26.0%
+111
+243
+110
+230
0
0		-1.34742-1.34657-1.34815
Southampton
Tottenham		8.1%
78.6%		13.3%
+700
-258
+665
-265
1
3		-0.34847-0.35962-0.24090
Liverpool
Fulham		61.0%
17.4%		21.6%
-110
+337
-112
+330
2
3		-1.50476-1.49286-1.74933
Chelsea
Brentford		46.7%
26.7%		26.6%
+142
+195
+140
+200
0
0		-1.32058-1.30833-1.32516
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa		21.5%
53.9%		24.6%
+273
+116
+260
+110
1
2		-0.77290-0.78084-0.61795
Brighton and Hove Albion
Crystal Palace		27.4%
45.2%		27.3%
+193
+155
+185
+155
1
2		-0.95347-0.97257-0.79337
Bournemouth
West Ham United		33.1%
39.0%		27.9%
+140
+206
+135
+201
2
2		-1.28562-1.29532-1.27679
Wolverhampton
Ipswich Town		35.1%
35.1%		29.8%
+167
+185
+165
+180
2
1		-1.00572-1.01589-1.04683
Arsenal
Everton		56.3%
20.5%		23.1%
+110
+439
+110
+425
1
1		-1.19073-1.18375-1.46568
Tottenham
Chelsea		12.8%
69.0%		18.1%
+380
-145
+360
-150
0
1		-0.54428-0.54967-0.37056
Everton
Liverpool		6.5%
81.0%		12.6%
+782
-205
+650
-220
0
1		-0.37990-0.41923-0.21103
Aston Villa
Brighton and Hove Albion		26.3%
47.7%		25.9%
+226
+135
+205
+130
3
0		-1.17167-1.16235-1.33420
Ipswich Town
Bournemouth		10.2%
72.4%		17.4%
+683
-250
+675
-275
2
1		-2.08820-2.09419-2.28112
Crystal Palace
Southampton		60.7%
17.5%		21.8%
-160
+475
-165
+470
1
1		-1.46205-1.44274-1.52221
Leicester City
Manchester City		4.7%
85.4%		9.9%
+1300
-480
+1275
-560
0
2		-0.21452-0.20949-0.15807
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Season Prediction Results

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 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.40431 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.39993 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.65716
-0.25285
-0.25723

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/07/25
Previous columnNext column
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (22-2-7, 73 pts)25.73.68.785.898.8%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Arsenal (17-3-11, 62 pts)20.64.612.874.71.2%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Nottingham Forest (17-8-6, 57 pts)19.510.58.066.40.0%59.3%21.0%0.0%
4Chelsea (15-8-8, 53 pts)18.39.99.964.60.0%45.0%21.6%0.0%
5Newcastle United (16-9-5, 53 pts)18.711.97.463.50.0%30.2%18.6%0.0%
6Manchester City (15-9-7, 52 pts)18.810.68.665.00.0%51.5%23.3%0.0%
7Aston Villa (14-8-9, 51 pts)16.910.210.961.50.0%12.1%10.1%0.0%
8Fulham (13-9-9, 48 pts)15.411.710.957.10.0%1.2%3.4%0.0%
9Brighton and Hove Albion (12-8-11, 47 pts)14.710.412.957.10.0%0.6%1.3%0.0%
10Bournemouth (12-10-9, 45 pts)14.312.711.054.00.0%0.1%0.5%0.0%
11Crystal Palace (11-9-10, 43 pts)13.712.012.353.50.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
12Brentford (12-13-6, 42 pts)14.615.58.051.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Manchester United (10-13-8, 38 pts)12.615.410.047.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Tottenham (11-16-4, 37 pts)13.418.66.046.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Everton (7-10-14, 35 pts)9.412.616.044.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16West Ham United (9-14-8, 35 pts)11.516.610.044.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Wolverhampton (9-17-5, 32 pts)10.820.27.039.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
18Ipswich Town (4-19-8, 20 pts)5.622.69.826.70.0%0.0%0.0%99.7%
19Leicester City (4-22-5, 17 pts)5.925.26.924.70.0%0.0%0.0%99.9%
20Southampton (2-25-4, 10 pts)3.329.25.515.50.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.