France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Marseille
Lens 		29.5%
43.8%		26.7%
+236
+126
+210
+125
1.09
1.39		2.48
o2½-139
u2¾-112
o2½-135
u2½+115
Montpellier
Saint-Etienne 		30.9%
43.1%		25.9%
+208
+138
+205
+130
1.18
1.45		2.63
o2¾+100
u2¾-110
o2½-140
u2½+120
Lyon
Reims 		43.0%
30.1%		26.9%
+137
+195
+145
+170
1.37
1.10		2.47
o2¾-110
u2¾-102
o3-105
u3-115
Games for Nov 22, 2024
Games for Nov 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Toulouse
Paris Saint-Germain		5.8%
82.5%		11.7%
+700
-256
+700
-290
0
3		-0.35895-0.34545-0.19198
Brest
Monaco		13.4%
68.5%		18.1%
+500
-168
+525
-190
2
3		-0.49279-0.47209-0.37873
Saint-Etienne
Lyon		13.0%
69.2%		17.8%
+765
-290
+740
-310
0
1		-0.32180-0.32893-0.36776
Reims
Le Havre		28.0%
42.6%		29.4%
+130
+253
+125
+245
3
0		-0.86303-0.86140-1.27322
Toulouse
Rennes		21.6%
55.0%		23.4%
+223
+134
+230
+125
2
0		-1.19892-1.24320-1.53192
Brest
Montpellier		28.1%
46.5%		25.4%
+156
+193
+150
+215
1
3		-1.10936-1.16767-0.76552
Lille
Nice		36.0%
34.7%		29.3%
+229
+139
+210
+140
2
2		-1.21898-1.21362-1.22618
Paris Saint-Germain
Angers		77.9%
7.9%		14.2%
-365
+1000
-350
+900
4
2		-0.27736-0.30171-0.24938
Nantes
Lens		17.7%
60.0%		22.3%
+500
-154
+475
-160
2
3		-0.52933-0.53664-0.51089
Monaco
Strasbourg		43.9%
30.3%		25.8%
-101
+280
+100
+255
3
1		-0.71658-0.74381-0.82244
Auxerre
Marseille		8.8%
75.9%		15.2%
+680
-216
+625
-250
3
1		-2.06578-2.03004-2.42792
Marseille
Nantes		39.9%
32.3%		27.8%
+115
+259
+105
+280
2
1		-0.79443-0.76613-0.91834
Rennes
Auxerre		46.6%
27.5%		25.9%
+111
+250
+115
+230
0
4		-1.28226-1.24258-1.29197
Montpellier
Le Havre		31.7%
39.9%		28.4%
+235
+128
+245
+115
0
1		-0.85078-0.81340-0.91950
Reims
Toulouse		20.5%
55.5%		24.0%
+332
-110
+265
+100
0
1		-0.67917-0.74360-0.58823
Strasbourg
Saint-Etienne		32.9%
40.3%		26.9%
+112
+275
+105
+260
0
2		-1.32678-1.32336-0.90976
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.42587 
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.40877 
DRatings22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.28536
0.14052
0.12342

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.