France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rennes
Lille 		17.6%
60.4%		22.1%
+318
-106
+325
-115
0.90
1.88		2.78
o2½-110
u2½+101
o2½-115
u2½-105
Angers
Auxerre 		26.7%
47.5%		25.8%
+390
-132
+360
-130
1.07
1.50		2.57
o2¾-102
u2¾-112
o2½-130
u2½+110
Le Havre
Nantes 		19.1%
56.0%		24.9%
+408
-113
+400
-120
0.82
1.61		2.43
o2-136
u2¼-125
o2-135
u2+115
Strasbourg
Nice 		20.8%
55.0%		24.2%
+358
-124
+345
-130
0.93
1.68		2.61
o2½-140
u2¾-109
o2½-130
u2½+110
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Monaco
Brest		38.4%
34.8%		26.7%
+173
+164
+170
+155
2
0		-1.02918-1.04035-0.95709
Montpellier
Reims		29.6%
43.3%		27.1%
+221
+124
+230
+110
2
1		-1.19060-1.24223-1.21841
Strasbourg
Lille		14.2%
65.7%		20.1%
+520
-163
+475
-165
0
1		-0.50306-0.52540-0.41990
Rennes
Nantes		32.6%
39.5%		27.8%
+147
+216
+145
+200
3
0		-0.93280-0.94410-1.11969
Lorient
Nice		20.6%
55.8%		23.6%
+519
-173
+510
-185
0
3		-0.48362-0.48203-0.58363
Brest
Lyon		20.6%
57.0%		22.3%
+295
+107
+265
+110
3
4		-0.75747-0.79376-0.56175
Toulouse
Rennes		16.0%
63.4%		20.6%
+362
-118
+330
-120
2
1		-1.55107-1.50928-1.83158
Reims
Strasbourg		26.2%
47.0%		26.8%
+202
+147
+195
+140
1
3		-0.92568-0.92402-0.75572
Lyon
Nantes		32.1%
40.8%		27.0%
+120
+259
+120
+240
3
1		-0.81871-0.83884-1.13557
Rennes
Monaco		22.5%
54.2%		23.3%
+320
-123
+305
-125
0
1		-0.62237-0.63597-0.61245
Strasbourg
Toulouse		29.0%
45.0%		26.0%
+260
+115
+250
+110
0
0		-1.28096-1.28884-1.34569
Lorient
Montpellier		19.0%
59.1%		21.9%
+325
-119
+315
-125
0
2		-0.63820-0.63936-0.52643
Clermont Foot
Paris Saint-Germain		3.5%
87.3%		9.1%
+865
-290
+900
-370
1
1		-1.74818-1.85125-2.39679
Le Havre
Lens		10.6%
71.1%		18.3%
+645
-199
+600
-205
1
1		-1.50828-1.49598-1.69707
Marseille
Lille		27.9%
45.3%		26.8%
+335
-108
+310
-105
1
3		-0.67824-0.70613-0.79279
Paris Saint-Germain
Marseille		49.3%
25.3%		25.4%
+107
+280
+100
+265
2
0		-0.73691-0.73643-0.70757
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.15566 
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.15491 
DRatings31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.12557
0.03009
0.02934

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.