France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rennes
Lille 		17.6%
60.4%		22.1%
+317
-107
+325
-115
0.90
1.88		2.78
o2½-110
u2½+101
o2½-115
u2½-105
Angers
Auxerre 		26.7%
47.5%		25.8%
+388
-130
+375
-135
1.07
1.50		2.57
o2¾-102
u2¾-112
o2½-130
u2½+110
Le Havre
Nantes 		19.1%
56.0%		24.9%
+408
-113
+400
-120
0.82
1.61		2.43
o2-136
u2¼-125
o2-135
u2+115
Strasbourg
Nice 		20.8%
55.0%		24.2%
+358
-124
+345
-130
0.93
1.68		2.61
o2½-140
u2¾-109
o2½-140
u2½+120
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rennes
Strasbourg		35.8%
36.1%		28.1%
+134
+223
+130
+215
0
2		-1.20141-1.19690-1.01771
Montpellier
Le Havre		44.6%
28.1%		27.4%
+170
+185
+175
+175
2
0		-1.01724-1.05535-0.80831
Toulouse
Clermont Foot		33.4%
38.5%		28.1%
+105
+290
+105
+275
3
0		-0.74343-0.76529-1.09628
Reims
Lyon		18.7%
58.4%		22.9%
+267
+108
+250
+105
1
1		-1.33750-1.33094-1.47517
Monaco
Metz		55.7%
21.0%		23.3%
-154
+450
-160
+415
5
2		-0.51565-0.53479-0.58557
Lens
Lille		20.1%
56.4%		23.5%
+267
+118
+265
+105
1
2		-0.80860-0.76819-0.57252
Paris Saint-Germain
Montpellier		66.1%
14.6%		19.2%
-222
+590
-220
+550
6
2		-0.39821-0.42528-0.41346
Marseille
Rennes		33.4%
38.7%		27.8%
+168
+171
+160
+170
0
2		-1.01666-1.04120-0.94835
Metz
Reims		16.5%
60.5%		23.0%
+400
-127
+380
-130
1
2		-0.60314-0.60996-0.50274
Lorient
Monaco		12.1%
70.6%		17.4%
+689
-259
+650
-275
2
2		-1.75655-1.73693-1.75117
Le Havre
Clermont Foot		22.6%
50.1%		27.3%
+175
+185
+170
+180
1
2		-1.06927-1.07852-0.69099
Nice
Lens		20.5%
55.9%		23.5%
+336
+100
+280
+105
3
1		-1.48347-1.38326-1.58246
Strasbourg
Nantes		23.5%
51.6%		25.0%
+305
+111
+275
+110
3
1		-1.41358-1.37105-1.44932
Lyon
Toulouse		38.6%
34.7%		26.8%
+170
+184
+155
+185
3
2		-1.01401-0.98556-0.95231
Nantes
Marseille		14.9%
64.3%		20.7%
+626
-197
+610
-215
0
2		-0.43844-0.43135-0.44132
Rennes
Lille		21.3%
54.5%		24.2%
+350
-104
+315
-105
2
2		-1.27239-1.25931-1.41969
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.15566 
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.15491 
DRatings31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.12557
0.03009
0.02934

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.