France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rennes
Lille 		17.6%
60.4%		22.1%
+340
-112
+325
-115
0.90
1.88		2.78
o2½-114
u2½+106
o2½-115
u2½-105
Angers
Auxerre 		26.7%
47.5%		25.8%
+390
-133
+375
-135
1.07
1.50		2.57
o2¾-105
u2¾-112
o2½-130
u2½+110
Le Havre
Nantes 		19.1%
56.0%		24.9%
+395
-115
+400
-120
0.82
1.61		2.43
o2-128
u2¼-125
o2-135
u2+115
Strasbourg
Nice 		20.8%
55.0%		24.2%
+355
-125
+345
-130
0.93
1.68		2.61
o2½-140
u2¾-109
o2½-140
u2½+120
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Monaco
Strasbourg		41.4%
32.1%		26.5%
+106
+257
+100
+250
1
0		-0.74767-0.74421-0.88240
Toulouse
Le Havre		36.7%
34.0%		29.3%
+170
+192
+170
+185
0
1		-1.10142-1.10045-1.07869
Reims
Paris Saint-Germain		5.3%
82.7%		12.0%
+562
-199
+530
-215
2
2		-1.59327-1.60864-2.12260
Lyon
Lorient		40.8%
32.5%		26.6%
+120
+252
+115
+245
2
0		-0.81572-0.81340-0.89612
Lens
Lyon		25.8%
49.6%		24.6%
+187
+160
+180
+160
3
0		-1.08114-1.07790-1.35584
Lorient
Rennes		14.7%
65.2%		20.1%
+625
-202
+625
-225
2
1		-2.00493-2.03218-1.91535
Metz
Nantes		14.6%
64.4%		21.0%
+395
-114
+390
-120
2
0		-1.62781-1.64046-1.92566
Strasbourg
Montpellier		23.0%
53.3%		23.7%
+290
+104
+275
-105
2
2		-1.33496-1.34623-1.44007
Le Havre
Brest		13.6%
65.8%		20.6%
+580
-165
+550
-170
0
1		-0.50281-0.51498-0.41849
Nice
Toulouse		30.6%
42.4%		27.0%
+135
+240
+130
+235
1
2		-1.25075-1.25846-0.85767
Marseille
Clermont Foot		56.4%
19.6%		24.0%
-154
+468
-160
+450
5
1		-0.51519-0.53464-0.57357
Lille
Reims		41.1%
30.1%		28.8%
+151
+196
+150
+185
1
0		-0.94199-0.96451-0.88994
Paris Saint-Germain
Monaco		54.2%
22.6%		23.2%
+102
+252
+100
+245
0
0		-1.43376-1.38665-1.46020
Montpellier
Marseille		15.3%
64.7%		20.0%
+400
-140

1
4		-0.57180-0.43546
Rennes
Paris Saint-Germain		7.9%
77.9%		14.2%
+780
-291

1
1		-1.81886-1.95200
Lille
Toulouse		45.8%
28.0%		26.2%
+102
+291

1
3		-1.39175-1.27436
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.15566 
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.15491 
DRatings31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.12557
0.03009
0.02934

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.