France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rennes
Lille 		17.6%
60.4%		22.1%
+367
-115
+315
-110
0.90
1.88		2.78
o2¼-119
u2½-124
o2½-105
u2½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Angers
Auxerre 		26.7%
47.5%		25.8%
+400
-134
+390
-145
1.07
1.50		2.57
o2¾-105
u2¾-112
o2½-130
u2½+110
Le Havre
Nantes 		19.1%
56.0%		24.9%
+397
-115
+410
-125
0.82
1.61		2.43
o2-128
u2¼-125
o2-135
u2+115
Strasbourg
Nice 		20.8%
55.0%		24.2%
+370
-125
+345
-130
0.93
1.68		2.61
o2½-140
u2¾-109
o2½-140
u2½+120
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Clermont Foot
Nice		16.4%
61.3%		22.4%
+800
-223

0
0		-1.56174-1.49799
Reims
Le Havre		38.8%
30.5%		30.7%
+126
+247

2
1		-0.83984-0.94685
Monaco
Lens		32.2%
41.4%		26.4%


3
2		-1.13398
Brest
Strasbourg		28.8%
45.1%		26.1%
+190
+172
+180
+170
3
0		-1.08376-1.07852-1.24587
Nantes
Lorient		33.6%
38.3%		28.1%
+160
+185
+170
+180
1
0		-1.00239-1.04214-1.09142
Lyon
Metz		49.3%
25.5%		25.2%
+100
+315
-105
+300
2
1		-0.71789-0.71980-0.70749
Marseille
Brest		49.2%
25.5%		25.3%
+217
+145
+210
+140
0
1		-0.91799-0.92591-1.36732
Lens
Reims		36.2%
34.9%		29.0%
+258
+123
+235
+125
1
1		-1.25583-1.22806-1.23887
Clermont Foot
Rennes		11.6%
69.9%		18.5%
+495
-163
+490
-180
1
3		-0.50966-0.49377-0.35763
Metz
Montpellier		14.0%
66.5%		19.5%
+500
-150
+440
-150
0
3		-0.53047-0.56138-0.40836
Toulouse
Monaco		17.3%
62.2%		20.5%
+472
-165
+495
-190
2
1		-1.77355-1.83264-1.75614
Lorient
Strasbourg		17.8%
60.2%		22.0%
+426
-135
+415
-145
3
1		-1.68416-1.69038-1.72569
Paris Saint-Germain
Nantes		63.2%
15.8%		21.0%
-200
+625
-210
+565
2
0		-0.42720-0.43827-0.45953
Le Havre
Lille		8.7%
74.0%		17.3%
+645
-200
+650
-215
0
3		-0.43785-0.43183-0.30131
Lyon
Montpellier		31.8%
42.5%		25.7%
+172
+183
+165
+175
2
1		-1.01564-1.02210-1.14489
Nantes
Toulouse		31.3%
41.6%		27.1%
+282
+114
+280
+105
2
1		-1.35899-1.38326-1.16277
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.15566 
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.15491 
DRatings31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.12557
0.03009
0.02934

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.