France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Strasbourg
Nice 		20.8%
55.0%		24.2%
+360
-126
+350
-130
0.93
1.68		2.61
o2½-140
u2¾-109
o2½-140
u2½+120
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 29, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Angers
Auxerre 		26.7%
47.5%		25.8%
+385
-126
+375
-130
2.57
o2½-122
u2¾-122
o2½-130
u2½+110
1st H
40:37		0
0
Le Havre
Nantes 		19.1%
56.0%		24.9%
+375
-107
+380
-115
2.43
o2-128
u2¼-126
o2-135
u2+115
1st H
39:52		1
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nantes
Toulouse		31.3%
41.6%		27.1%
+282
+114
+280
+105
2
1		-1.35899-1.38326-1.16277
Reims
Lorient		32.8%
38.4%		28.8%
-111
+330
-115
+330
0
2		-1.48497-1.49919-0.95722
Brest
Clermont Foot		32.6%
39.4%		28.0%
+110
+290
+110
+275
1
1		-1.25016-1.22799-1.27397
Rennes
Le Havre		51.2%
22.6%		26.2%
+110
+298
+105
+280
1
0		-0.76327-0.77044-0.66990
Lille
Paris Saint-Germain		9.1%
74.9%		15.9%
+350
-120
+340
-120
1
3		-0.63318-0.65177-0.28872
Strasbourg
Lens		19.5%
57.9%		22.6%
+460
-144
+430
-150
1
3		-0.55219-0.56136-0.54701
Metz
Marseille		7.8%
77.3%		14.9%
+825
-227
+715
-245
1
1		-1.57920-1.56643-1.90468
Marseille
Lyon		34.5%
38.2%		27.3%
+160
+187
+165
+170
0
1		-1.08114-1.04276-0.96226
Toulouse
Reims		26.2%
47.3%		26.4%
+370
-116
+350
-125
3
2		-1.56743-1.55452-1.33838
Clermont Foot
Lille		10.1%
72.1%		17.8%
+667
-224
+675
-250
0
4		-0.40128-0.38892-0.32737
Le Havre
Monaco		9.3%
74.2%		16.4%
+510
-168
+530
-170
1
1		-1.49951-1.44274-1.80557
Lens
Nantes		31.2%
41.4%		27.4%
+112
+277
+110
+260
1
0		-0.77542-0.79308-1.16366
Montpellier
Rennes		21.0%
56.1%		22.9%
+590
-185
+510
-180
1
2		-0.45841-0.49127-0.57720
Paris Saint-Germain
Strasbourg		66.4%
14.1%		19.5%
-180
+550
-200
+525
2
1		-0.45583-0.45558-0.41009
Brest
Paris Saint-Germain		4.4%
85.8%		9.8%
+645
-235
+710
-280
2
2		-1.64776-1.70771-2.32228
Lens
Toulouse		34.3%
38.5%		27.2%
+110
+260
+110
+260
2
0		-0.77096-0.78891-1.06959
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.97957 
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.98279 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.88652
0.09305
0.09627

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.