France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Strasbourg
Nice 		20.8%
55.0%		24.2%
+360
-126
+350
-130
0.93
1.68		2.61
o2½-140
u2¾-109
o2½-140
u2½+120
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 29, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Le Havre
Nantes 		19.1%
56.0%		24.9%
+375
-107
+380
-115
2.43
o2-128
u2¼-126
o2-135
u2+115
2nd H
45:00		2
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lens
Toulouse		34.3%
38.5%		27.2%
+110
+260
+110
+260
2
0		-0.77096-0.78891-1.06959
Nantes
Reims		30.8%
40.4%		28.8%
+315
+101
+305
+105
0
0		-1.28075-1.26263-1.24549
Le Havre
Lorient		20.2%
54.8%		25.0%
+158
+220
+155
+205
3
3		-1.15382-1.15059-1.38693
Strasbourg
Clermont Foot		39.3%
32.4%		28.2%
+145
+215
+140
+210
1
1		-1.23069-1.23533-1.26468
Lille
Montpellier		35.4%
37.0%		27.6%
+105
+290
-105
+290
0
0		-1.28638-1.30567-1.28656
Monaco
Marseille		20.7%
56.4%		22.8%
+198
+141
+180
+145
2
2		-1.31890-1.30254-1.47692
Rennes
Lyon		27.2%
47.7%		25.1%
+182
+160
+190
+140
3
2		-1.06540-1.11480-1.30295
Paris Saint-Germain
Lens		60.4%
17.8%		21.8%
-102
+288
-105
+265
2
0		-0.70481-0.71719-0.50455
Lyon
Le Havre		51.1%
23.4%		25.5%
+147
+227
+145
+210
1
3		-1.20297-1.17847-1.45436
Clermont Foot
Nantes		14.0%
65.1%		20.8%
+328
-106
+340
-115
2
1		-1.46872-1.53234-1.96419
Montpellier
Brest		33.7%
39.7%		26.6%
+388
-120
+335
-120
0
2		-0.63166-0.65427-0.92460
Lorient
Lille		11.5%
70.3%		18.1%
+1125
-342
+1100
-390
0
3		-0.28538-0.27863-0.35174
Nice
Rennes		19.4%
57.5%		23.1%
+216
+145
+230
+135
0
2		-0.92788-0.90429-0.55304
Reims
Monaco		17.2%
60.9%		21.9%
+390
-143
+385
-160
3
1		-1.61944-1.62913-1.75788
Strasbourg
Marseille		14.8%
64.9%		20.3%
+474
-152
+475
-165
1
1		-1.43209-1.41256-1.59682
Monaco
Toulouse		37.5%
35.9%		26.7%
-115
+305
-120
+315
2
1		-0.65108-0.65452-0.98139
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.88139 
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.89518 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.85471
0.02668
0.04047

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.