France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lens
Reims 		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+150
+185

1.30
1.04		2.34
o2½-112
u2½+103

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Strasbourg
Nice 		20.8%
55.0%		24.2%
+360
-126
+350
-130
2.61
o2¾-115
u3-131
o2½-140
u2½+120
1st H
43:11		1
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Monaco
Toulouse		37.5%
35.9%		26.7%
-115
+305
-120
+315
2
1		-0.65108-0.65452-0.98139
Lille
Strasbourg		35.8%
35.6%		28.6%
+108
+283
+105
+275
1
2		-1.37007-1.36920-1.03268
Le Havre
Reims		15.1%
61.5%		23.4%
+400
-133
+385
-140
0
1		-0.59079-0.58709-0.48643
Marseille
Montpellier		40.5%
32.6%		26.8%
-103
+304
-105
+290
1
1		-1.32720-1.31602-1.31595
Nantes
Lyon		23.1%
52.7%		24.2%
+345
-115
+350
-130
0
1		-0.65445-0.61665-0.63997
Rennes
Clermont Foot		47.5%
25.9%		26.5%
+145
+226
+145
+210
3
1		-0.91844-0.94317-0.74383
Lorient
Brest		23.0%
52.8%		24.2%
+460
-140
+440
-145
0
4		-0.56579-0.57426-0.63957
Paris Saint-Germain
Lille		54.4%
21.5%		24.1%
-112
+301
-115
+290
1
1		-1.41358-1.39784-1.42321
Clermont Foot
Marseille		8.3%
76.0%		15.6%
+665
-210
+650
-215
1
2		-0.41794-0.41931-0.27432
Rennes
Toulouse		35.7%
36.6%		27.7%
+128
+241
+120
+220
0
0		-1.27022-1.30420-1.28359
Strasbourg
Lorient		36.0%
35.9%		28.0%
+215
+150
+210
+140
2
1		-1.17225-1.18185-1.02026
Brest
Nantes		18.6%
59.0%		22.4%
+181
+180
+175
+175
2
0		-1.05837-1.06025-1.68244
Reims
Lens		19.2%
57.1%		23.7%
+218
+140
+230
+135
0
2		-0.89956-0.88114-0.56119
Lyon
Monaco		24.7%
51.8%		23.5%
+365
-128
+355
-125
1
0		-1.55704-1.53127-1.39829
Marseille
Lorient		53.5%
22.3%		24.3%
-128
+398
-130
+375
4
2		-0.60236-0.61906-0.62601
Toulouse
Lyon		18.8%
59.8%		21.5%
+365
-126
+340
-130
0
3		-0.60059-0.61828-0.51497
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1-0 (0.667)0-0.95585 
Sportsbooks32-1-0 (0.667)0-0.97774 
DRatings32-1-0 (0.667)0-0.96911
-0.01326
0.00863

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.