France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lens
Reims 		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+150
+196

1.30
1.04		2.34
o2½-112
u2½+103

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Toulouse
Lyon		18.8%
59.8%		21.5%
+365
-126
+340
-130
0
3		-0.60059-0.61828-0.51497
Le Havre
Strasbourg		13.4%
65.8%		20.8%
+240
+140
+230
+135
1
2		-0.90333-0.90429-0.41834
Lille
Clermont Foot		51.0%
23.1%		25.9%
-112
+353
-125
+380
0
0		-1.31748-1.31152-1.35019
Nantes
Paris Saint-Germain		6.6%
80.3%		13.1%
+875
-335
+925
-400
1
2		-0.28740-0.27328-0.21920
Monaco
Rennes		27.5%
47.2%		25.2%
+156
+175
+155
+170
2
1		-0.96425-0.98714-1.28924
Lens
Montpellier		30.9%
42.9%		26.2%
+108
+280
+105
+260
0
0		-1.29836-1.30280-1.33907
Strasbourg
Brest		32.6%
40.3%		27.1%
+371
-115
+400
-120
1
1		-1.29335-1.29375-1.30693
Lyon
Marseille		19.2%
58.7%		22.1%
+307
-105
+345
-120
0
3		-0.69331-0.64232-0.53249
Rennes
Marseille		19.8%
57.0%		23.2%
+295
-103
+300
-115
0
2		-0.70395-0.67598-0.56212
Lorient
Toulouse		19.9%
57.5%		22.7%
+308
+102
+315
-110
1
1		-1.27830-1.30203-1.48461
Montpellier
Monaco		20.0%
58.4%		21.6%
+422
-161
+385
-165
0
2		-0.51093-0.52596-0.53871
Clermont Foot
Brest		20.3%
55.9%		23.8%
+425
-130
+385
-140
0
3		-0.58787-0.59034-0.58143
Paris Saint-Germain
Le Havre		78.7%
6.9%		14.5%
-264
+729
-355
+935
2
0		-0.35049-0.29768-0.23995
Strasbourg
Reims		28.6%
43.8%		27.6%
+407
-134
+360
-135
1
2		-0.58216-0.60462-0.82551
Clermont Foot
Montpellier		15.0%
64.7%		20.3%
+336
-108
+320
-115
1
1		-1.31703-1.34059-1.59509
Lille
Lyon		30.1%
43.3%		26.5%
+144
+198
+140
+200
2
0		-0.91872-0.92284-1.19948
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.86987 
Sportsbooks43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.88828 
DRatings43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.87618
-0.00631
0.01210

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.