France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lens
Reims 		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+150
+196

1.30
1.04		2.34
o2½-112
u2½+103

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Reims
Rennes		18.1%
58.6%		23.3%
+251
+113
+250
+110
1
3		-0.78047-0.79239-0.53462
Le Havre
Nantes		12.0%
67.7%		20.3%
+330
+101
+275
+105
0
0		-1.24556-1.26058-1.59682
Brest
Montpellier		20.0%
57.9%		22.1%
+221
+133
+225
+125
3
1		-1.19637-1.22806-1.61144
Marseille
Strasbourg		41.1%
31.6%		27.3%
-108
+335
-110
+300
1
1		-1.32754-1.33124-1.29960
Lens
Clermont Foot		45.8%
27.3%		26.8%
+105
+308
+100
+290
3
0		-0.73628-0.74244-0.77997
Monaco
Paris Saint-Germain		8.2%
77.9%		13.9%
+526
-219
+500
-220
2
5		-0.41685-0.42745-0.24941
Marseille
Lens		35.0%
37.1%		27.9%
+225
+135
+220
+130
0
1		-0.87724-0.87347-0.99169
Toulouse
Lille		15.9%
63.2%		20.9%
+535
-176
+575
-215
1
1		-1.53856-1.55566-1.56777
Monaco
Le Havre		53.5%
21.7%		24.8%
-134
+392
-135
+345
0
0		-1.43058-1.42474-1.39473
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims		67.8%
12.6%		19.5%
-157
+423
-185
+455
3
0		-0.52077-0.48237-0.38805
Brest
Monaco		14.6%
66.3%		19.0%
+345
-124
+345
-135
0
2		-0.61926-0.59649-0.41053
Le Havre
Toulouse		15.0%
63.6%		21.5%
+310
+104
+310
+100
2
1		-1.43469-1.46132-1.90019
Clermont Foot
Strasbourg		15.6%
63.0%		21.4%
+237
+138
+230
+130
0
0		-1.19429-1.21221-1.54071
Reims
Nantes		21.4%
53.2%		25.4%
+160
+192
+155
+185
1
0		-0.97649-0.98556-1.54099
Lille
Marseille		22.4%
52.8%		24.8%
+330
-108
+300
-110
0
0		-1.34002-1.33124-1.39372
Lens
Lorient		42.5%
30.6%		26.9%
-115
+350
-135
+375
0
0		-1.32531-1.37215-1.31275
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.86987 
Sportsbooks43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.88828 
DRatings43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.87618
-0.00631
0.01210

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.