France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lens
Reims 		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+150
+196

1.30
1.04		2.34
o2½-112
u2½+103

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Montpellier
Paris Saint-Germain		5.9%
82.5%		11.5%
+983
-368
+950
-420
0
3		-0.26685-0.26445-0.19189
Strasbourg
Rennes		20.3%
56.6%		23.2%
+625
-204
+625
-225
1
1		-1.55211-1.55519-1.46274
Monaco
Lille		24.5%
50.9%		24.6%
+179
+150
+175
+140
0
2		-0.94387-0.92480-0.67519
Nantes
Lens		23.7%
51.4%		24.9%
+470
-162
+450
-170
0
4		-0.50673-0.51371-0.66540
Lorient
Reims		19.9%
55.8%		24.2%
+400
-133
+375
-145
0
1		-0.58128-0.57263-0.58264
Clermont Foot
Lyon		11.9%
70.0%		18.1%
+325
-110
+300
-115
2
1		-1.47587-1.43658-2.12830
Reims
Toulouse		26.0%
47.6%		26.4%
+173
+172
+160
+170
1
1		-1.27225-1.26107-1.33150
Montpellier
Nantes		24.8%
50.5%		24.7%
+135
+205
+135
+190
0
2		-1.14583-1.11544-0.68248
Rennes
Lorient		44.3%
29.1%		26.5%
-114
+335
-115
+290
1
2		-1.49557-1.41075-1.23282
Marseille
Nice		42.2%
30.4%		27.4%
+235
+136
+215
+135
0
1		-0.87919-0.90387-1.19171
Strasbourg
Paris Saint-Germain		5.8%
82.3%		11.9%
+1200
-464
+1350
-600
0
3		-0.23021-0.20400-0.19514
Lens
Le Havre		49.6%
23.8%		26.6%
-114
+360
-115
+340
0
0		-1.29825-1.28906-1.32490
Paris Saint-Germain
Rennes		58.6%
19.0%		22.5%
-116
+318
-120
+315
3
1		-0.64762-0.64495-0.53525
Lille
Lens		30.6%
42.0%		27.4%
+207
+140
+205
+135
1
1		-1.27011-1.25956-1.29335
Lorient
Lyon		13.6%
67.6%		18.7%
+370
-130
+375
-145
3
3		-1.41391-1.43734-1.67510
Toulouse
Brest		30.1%
43.8%		26.1%
+425
-140
+390
-135
1
1		-1.38107-1.35600-1.34308
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.86987 
Sportsbooks43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.88828 
DRatings43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.87618
-0.00631
0.01210

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.