France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lens
Reims 		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+150
+196

1.30
1.04		2.34
o2½-112
u2½+103

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Le Havre
Marseille		7.2%
77.6%		15.2%
+625
-208
+565
-215
0
3		-0.41826-0.43329-0.25389
Monaco
Reims		36.8%
35.0%		28.1%
+155
+168
+160
+160
3
1		-0.96756-1.00518-0.99859
Nantes
Strasbourg		28.6%
44.6%		26.8%
+227
+138
+230
+130
2
1		-1.21790-1.24303-1.25250
Nantes
Rennes		22.4%
53.1%		24.6%
+433
-150
+475
-170
1
3		-0.54185-0.50898-0.63343
Montpellier
Lorient		37.4%
35.4%		27.1%
+130
+216
+125
+210
3
0		-0.86531-0.86232-0.98307
Brest
Nice		21.5%
54.6%		23.8%
+370
-120
+385
-140
0
0		-1.35615-1.38633-1.43464
Marseille
Monaco		32.6%
40.7%		26.7%
+178
+148
+180
+140
2
3		-0.93402-0.92213-0.89956
Paris Saint-Germain
Clermont Foot		77.1%
7.9%		14.9%
-250
+723
-220
+560
0
0		-1.66855-1.59805-1.90267
Lens
Strasbourg		31.5%
41.5%		27.0%
+103
+308
+100
+280
1
0		-0.72340-0.74482-1.15445
Reims
Lille		15.9%
61.6%		22.5%
+303
-109
+285
-110
2
1		-1.41952-1.39707-1.83923
Marseille
Paris Saint-Germain		11.1%
71.5%		17.4%
+523
-186
+475
-185
0
4		-0.45012-0.48122-0.33539
Rennes
Montpellier		32.3%
41.0%		26.6%
+160
+180
+155
+170
0
0		-1.29015-1.28942-1.32257
Toulouse
Lens		19.3%
58.4%		22.2%
+655
-213
+600
-220
1
2		-0.41032-0.42593-0.53719
Clermont Foot
Le Havre		28.9%
41.5%		29.7%
+220
+150
+210
+145
1
2		-0.94680-0.94804-0.87981
Lyon
Brest		39.5%
33.8%		26.7%
+171
+170
+160
+160
0
1		-1.02619-1.00518-1.08444
Lorient
Nantes		16.0%
62.8%		21.2%
+230
+137
+215
+135
3
5		-0.88179-0.90387-0.46536
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.86987 
Sportsbooks43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.88828 
DRatings43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.87618
-0.00631
0.01210

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.