France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lens
Reims 		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+148
+196

1.30
1.04		2.34
o2½-112
u2½+103

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nice
Monaco		18.5%
59.8%		21.8%
+197
+141
+195
+135
1
0		-1.11386-1.13082-1.68983
Toulouse
Marseille		12.1%
69.9%		18.0%
+615
-218
+600
-225
0
0		-1.63455-1.58587-1.71747
Nantes
Clermont Foot		24.9%
48.4%		26.6%
+333
-114
+310
-115
1
0		-1.49544-1.45887-1.38894
Montpellier
Strasbourg		19.2%
58.8%		21.9%
+146
+205
+145
+185
2
2		-1.26227-1.27558-1.51709
Monaco
Lorient		49.0%
26.2%		24.8%
-139
+380
-130
+325
2
2		-1.44422-1.43557-1.39392
Lille
Rennes		30.3%
42.4%		27.3%
+265
+118
+225
+115
2
2		-1.28125-1.33025-1.29693
Nice
Paris Saint-Germain		4.3%
85.6%		10.1%
+438
-165
+450
-180
3
2		-1.71153-1.75296-3.14006
Montpellier
Lille		10.0%
73.7%		16.2%
+300
-108
+280
-110
0
1		-0.68072-0.69555-0.30481
Lorient
Le Havre		47.2%
25.6%		27.3%
+200
+165
+200
+150
0
3		-0.99277-0.96582-1.36391
Clermont Foot
Toulouse		20.6%
55.4%		23.9%
+237
+125
+240
+115
2
2		-1.27931-1.27576-1.43058
Lens
Monaco		22.5%
54.3%		23.2%
+265
+102
+245
+100
0
3		-0.72629-0.74156-0.61101
Rennes
Brest		39.4%
33.3%		27.4%
+110
+256
+105
+260
0
0		-1.31520-1.30280-1.29609
Marseille
Nantes		55.3%
20.6%		24.1%
-164
+470
-160
+435
1
1		-1.50526-1.46547-1.42416
Lille
Lorient		40.5%
31.8%		27.8%
-104
+315
-105
+290
1
4		-1.44392-1.41005-1.14677
Toulouse
Strasbourg		24.4%
50.5%		25.2%
+260
+115
+245
+110
0
2		-0.78898-0.79239-0.68365
Reims
Montpellier		30.5%
42.0%		27.5%
+220
+131
+210
+130
3
1		-1.18531-1.16970-1.18626
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.86987 
Sportsbooks43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.88828 
DRatings43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.87618
-0.00631
0.01210

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.